A Confident Putin Has Many in Europe Frightened
A former leader of the CIA says Vladimir Putin's confidence is growing - and that means fears are growing in Europe about what may come next.
Emerging Risks
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The enemies of the West are preparing to use a tactical nuke
The world is not yet at war. But the relative peace that we enjoyed since the end of the last Cold War has gone. State-on-state aggression is back. My fear, though, is that we are in a Cold War far more complex and dangerous than the last. Then we had back channels, treaties and wise statecraft to prevent it turning hot. It contained a nuclear arms race to ensure no nuclear weapon, large or small, would ever be deployed. Those days are over. The back channels have gone, the treaties have lapsed, and the determination of dictators like Putin not to lose (believing the West will not respond) means a nuclear weapon will, in my view, be fired within the next decade. It may not come from an unexpected source – a country that has nearly acquired one, or a terrorist faction within a state – but the danger is very real.
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Viktor Medvedchuk said, "If the collective West continues to assert its right to global dominance, Ukraine's human capital will not be enough in any case."
Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?
Observers have put forward varying explanations suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes, through nuclear threats, to achieve some current or future tactical edge in his face-off with Ukraine and NATO. But none of that reasoning erases a dangerous reality: Any Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons would create unprecedented conditions that could easily lead not to Russia's advantage, but to a wider nuclear war that would decimate Russia—and its leadership.
On Russia's War Perspectives – Putin Has No Fear Of A Massive Nuclear War
If Russia succeeds in a new round of mobilization, its advance becomes imminent, and the Western direct involvement will be considered almost as an attack on Russian territory. Putin, I would insist, has no fear of a massive nuclear war since his close friends (most probably Mikhail Kovalchuk, who is himself a physicist and since 2005 has been Director of the Russian National Research Centre "Kurchatov Institute") presented him with a series of research findings against the so-called theory of a "nuclear winter,"[25] which was shaped in the 1970s by both U.S. and Soviet academics, who tried to convince their governments that nuclear war cannot be won, as it inevitably destroys the entire human environment causing a reduction in the share of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Russian scholars told Putin that the theory was discounted immediately after the Cold War ended and reportedly argued that the use of nuclear warheads causing explosions equaling less than 200 to 300 megatons[26] will not provoke such terrible outcomes,[27] since the eruption of the Krakatoa volcano in 1883, which has been estimated at around the same magnitude did not significantly change the global climate.[28] Taking into account that these days the most powerful warheads in both Russia and the U.S. do not exceed two megatons each, it means that hundreds of nuclear exchanges could be made without causing the final destruction of the Earth – and so one should seriously consider Putin's words about Russia "having a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons [and] in this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country."[29]
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When looking at the results by political party, the pollsters found one-third of Republicans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war in the next decade; while 20 percent of Independents and 16 percent of Democrats agree.
American Strategy on the Brink
The Eurasian rimland is nigh-ablaze. The Middle East sits on the brink of large-scale war, which will not end absent a fundamental regional reorganization, and an enormous amount of human suffering inflicted upon Jew, Arab, and Persian alike. On the burning edge of the European continent, the Ukrainian armed forces hold off the Russian onslaught. In Asia, China menaces Taiwan, a legitimately representative democracy of 23 million with only the desire to determine their own fate and live unharassed.
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Mario Nawfal on Twitter / X
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian Media: “This is what a Russian nuclear attack on the United States would look like.’Still think Putin is bluffing? pic.twitter.com/VfXhLWUGmY— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 17, 2024
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