Emerging Risks

Synopsis and Key Points: Former U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Gordon Gray draws striking parallels between the current 2026 protests in Iran and the 2011 Arab Spring. -Following the collapse of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Gray argues that Tehran faces a similar existential crisis driven by economic ruin and a loss of dignity. While […]

New internal ethics guidelines won’t be enough to stamp out the deeply embedded corruption within China’s People’s Liberation Army.

Key Points and Summary – Even if Iran’s current protests intensify, a clean democratic transition is unlikely. Like Syria’s early uprisings, hope can outrun political reality—especially when a regime retains a loyal core, commands vast patronage networks, and fears retribution. -The most destabilizing scenario is not reform but succession collapse: rival clerical factions, competing security […]

Synopsis: A new Pentagon Inspector General audit found F-35 aircraft availability averaged about 50% in fiscal year 2024, underscoring persistent sustainment and oversight shortcomings in the program’s contractor-driven support model. -The issue is broader than one fighter: Air Force-wide mission capable rates fell to roughly 67% in FY2024, the lowest in at least a decade, […]

Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong stated that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Today, Communist China’s military power has never been greater. A new Pentagon report warns that the United States is “increasingly vulnerable” to attack. Worse still: China, well aware of its growing strength, is flexing its muscles. China’s People’s […]

A month of accelerating developments, including missile tests, executions, high-level signaling, and military warnings, illustrate a dangerous reality: both Israel and Iran believe they are prepared, and both are looking to deter the other through strength rather than compromise.

No one should confuse the patchwork of temporary cease-fire agreements in place throughout the Middle East for sustainable deterrence and peace.

Western civilization arose in Greece in the 8th century BC, when some 1,500 city-states emerged from a murky, illiterate 400-year-old Dark Age.

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China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to its border with Mongolia - the latest in a series of silo sites.

One of the most dangerous illusions Americans are living under today is the belief that safety is ambient, existing automatically, everywhere, and at all times, by virtue of laws, norms, or declarations. For decades, we have been trained to assume th...

As President Trump tries to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine, European leaders sound the alarm that Russia could target their countries next.

Donald Trump is making big moves in foreign policy: Trying to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, seeking regime change in Venezuela, waging a high-stakes economic contest with China. But perhaps his most far-reaching, fateful policy is his bid to rewire the free world. The free world — America’s democratic allies in Europe […]

Al Carns has warned of a "shadow of war" at Europe's door, as hostile intelligence activity against the UK has jumped by more than 50% over the past year.

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This article draws on research for Book 4 of the Reforging the Sword series. Titled *Shadows of Division*, the book depicts the outbreak of widespread 4th Generation Warfare in the US homeland.

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Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical analyst, speaker and author.What does the next decade really hold? Beneath every forecast about the future, one thing quietly ...

China's drive to build a modern, high-tech military is increasingly undermined by a widening corruption crisis that is raising doubts about its true

Author and journalist Peter Hitchens has delivered one of the bleakest warnings yet - urging British citizens to leave the UK before the country becomes “impossible to live in”. 🔴 Hitchens says Britain is

Article Summary – For a brief moment after the Soviet collapse, it looked like World War III had been taken off the table. -That illusion is gone. -Today, five flashpoints could drag nuclear-armed powers into a global war as soon as 2026: Russia’s grinding campaign in Eastern Europe, a Chinese move on Taiwan and the […]

Maybe the Democrats will wake up and go back to the days of Thomas Phillip “Tip” O’Neill and Dick Gephardt. I didn’t think much of them back then, but boy, wouldn’t it be great if Democrats loved America again?

Poisonings, cyber-attacks, sabotage of infrastructure – these have become so common it is increasingly hard to think that Russia is not at war with us.

ALERT:🚨BRITAIN ON THE BRINK: THIS WILL TURN VIOLENT Professor David Betz — 25 years in War Studies at King’s College London — now says the UK has crossed the threshold. His words are razor-sharp: “We are past the point at which normal politics can

This article analyzes the concept of limited nuclear war (LNW) and argues that the likelihood of states adopting an LNW strategy is increasing, driven by shifting global power dynamics and technological advancements. Under certain conditions, the use of nuclear weapons could achieve political objectives without escalating into full-scale nuclear war, something that Cold War dynamics largely precluded.