Emerging Risks

Emerging Risks

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Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?
Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?
Observers have put forward varying explanations suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes, through nuclear threats, to achieve some current or future tactical edge in his face-off with Ukraine and NATO. But none of that reasoning erases a dangerous reality: Any Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons would create unprecedented conditions that could easily lead not to Russia's advantage, but to a wider nuclear war that would decimate Russia—and its leadership.
·thebulletin.org·
Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?
On Russia's War Perspectives – Putin Has No Fear Of A Massive Nuclear War
On Russia's War Perspectives – Putin Has No Fear Of A Massive Nuclear War
If Russia succeeds in a new round of mobilization, its advance becomes imminent, and the Western direct involvement will be considered almost as an attack on Russian territory. Putin, I would insist, has no fear of a massive nuclear war since his close friends (most probably Mikhail Kovalchuk, who is himself a physicist and since 2005 has been Director of the Russian National Research Centre "Kurchatov Institute") presented him with a series of research findings against the so-called theory of a "nuclear winter,"[25] which was shaped in the 1970s by both U.S. and Soviet academics, who tried to convince their governments that nuclear war cannot be won, as it inevitably destroys the entire human environment causing a reduction in the share of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Russian scholars told Putin that the theory was discounted immediately after the Cold War ended and reportedly argued that the use of nuclear warheads causing explosions equaling less than 200 to 300 megatons[26] will not provoke such terrible outcomes,[27] since the eruption of the Krakatoa volcano in 1883, which has been estimated at around the same magnitude did not significantly change the global climate.[28] Taking into account that these days the most powerful warheads in both Russia and the U.S. do not exceed two megatons each, it means that hundreds of nuclear exchanges could be made without causing the final destruction of the Earth – and so one should seriously consider Putin's words about Russia "having a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons [and] in this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country."[29]
·memri.org·
On Russia's War Perspectives – Putin Has No Fear Of A Massive Nuclear War
Jordan: On the Edge? | The National Interest
Jordan: On the Edge? | The National Interest
Popular unrest against ties with Israel and an uneasy economy makes the country vulnerable to Iran’s and ISIS’ malign activity.
·nationalinterest.org·
Jordan: On the Edge? | The National Interest
Majority of Americans Believe Another World War is Likely in the Next Five to Ten Years, Just SIX PERCENT of Americans Say They Would Enlist | The Gateway Pundit | by Cassandra MacDonald
Majority of Americans Believe Another World War is Likely in the Next Five to Ten Years, Just SIX PERCENT of Americans Say They Would Enlist | The Gateway Pundit | by Cassandra MacDonald

According to a newly released survey from YouGov, 61 percent of Americans believe it is either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that World War III will kick off within the next decade.

When looking at the results by political party, the pollsters found one-third of Republicans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war in the next decade; while 20 percent of Independents and 16 percent of Democrats agree.

·thegatewaypundit.com·
Majority of Americans Believe Another World War is Likely in the Next Five to Ten Years, Just SIX PERCENT of Americans Say They Would Enlist | The Gateway Pundit | by Cassandra MacDonald
American Strategy on the Brink
American Strategy on the Brink
The Eurasian rimland is nigh-ablaze. The Middle East sits on the brink of large-scale war, which will not end absent a fundamental regional reorganization, and an enormous amount of human suffering inflicted upon Jew, Arab, and Persian alike. On the burning edge of the European continent, the Ukrainian armed forces hold off the Russian onslaught. In Asia, China menaces Taiwan, a legitimately representative democracy of 23 million with only the desire to determine their own fate and live unharassed.
·commentary.org·
American Strategy on the Brink
The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah
The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS.
·csis.org·
The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah
Mario Nawfal on Twitter / X
Mario Nawfal on Twitter / X
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian Media: “This is what a Russian nuclear attack on the United States would look like.’Still think Putin is bluffing? pic.twitter.com/VfXhLWUGmY— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 17, 2024
·x.com·
Mario Nawfal on Twitter / X
Reuters: Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war
Reuters: Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war
President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday Russia was technically ready for nuclear war and that if the U.S. sent troops to Ukraine, it would be considered a significant escalation of the conflict.
·reuters.com·
Reuters: Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war
Israel’s Escalation with Hezbollah: Possible Scenarios | Geopolitical Monitor
Israel’s Escalation with Hezbollah: Possible Scenarios | Geopolitical Monitor

There’s a risk of cascading conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, along with the possibility of Iran’s full armed support. Even the potential use of chemical and biological weapons cannot be ruled out in light of reports that Hezbollah has already been transporting chemical weapons from Syria.

·geopoliticalmonitor.com·
Israel’s Escalation with Hezbollah: Possible Scenarios | Geopolitical Monitor
Iran Has Put Middle East Into 'Convergence of Crises,' CENTCOM Commander Tells Senate - USNI News
Iran Has Put Middle East Into 'Convergence of Crises,' CENTCOM Commander Tells Senate - USNI News
Iran has thrown the Middle East into “a convergence of crises” with its military support of Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, Army Gen. Michael Kurilla told the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday. Calling it “the most volatile situation in 50 years,” Central Command’s top commander said Tehran has “every proxy operationalized” to include militias in Syria and Iraq, who have launched missile and drone attacks killing three American service members, and Hezbollah in Lebanon engaged in cross-border shelling with Israel. In the Middle East, to help finance these militia operations, ran is selling 90 percent of its
·news.usni.org·
Iran Has Put Middle East Into 'Convergence of Crises,' CENTCOM Commander Tells Senate - USNI News
Hamas Spokesman: Oct 7 attack launched to stop the red heifers
Hamas Spokesman: Oct 7 attack launched to stop the red heifers
The Hamas spokesman gave a rare speech on the 100 day anniversary of the war against Israel. In his speech, he cited the arrival of the red heifers in Israel as one of the motives for the massacre of Jews on October 7.
·israel365news.com·
Hamas Spokesman: Oct 7 attack launched to stop the red heifers
Niall Ferguson on Twitter / X
Niall Ferguson on Twitter / X
"The entire Western world has been living in a fool’s paradise, imagining that the post-Cold War era would never end. We have been living in the age of butter not guns, ploughshares not swords." https://t.co/oFraPxYz86— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) March 2, 2024
·x.com·
Niall Ferguson on Twitter / X