Emerging Risks

archived 15 Sep 2022 06:14:12 UTC

Only state intervention can save the day, but the pain is likely to fall on ordinary citizens, say observers

China’s economy is slowing, with annualized GDP growth falling to 0.4% for April–June 2022, its second lowest level since 1992. Economic recovery is being hampered by the combined effects of COVID and a falling property market.

archived 1 Oct 2022 20:09:14 UTC

Putin is cornered and insists he’s not bluffing. Will his nuclear blackmail backfire?

We might be able to stop an asteroid, but not incompetent leadership.

Opinion |

Putin has ordered a "partial military mobilization," attempting to bring in an additional 300,000 troops to fight in his unprovoked war on Ukraine.

Flight-trackers have spotted US surveillance plans flying near Kaliningrad, a Russian territory in Europe separate from the rest of the country.

In recent years, a small group of scholars has focussed on war-termination theory. They see reason to fear the possible outcomes in Ukraine.

Russia’s Playing the Waiting Game, Applebaum Says. Russia’s recent military call-up is as much about signaling as about war fighting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has two goals in mind behind the Kremlin's alleged sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, top intelligence expert John Jordan tells Newsmax.

Ukraine has both the political and popular resolve to liberate its territory. Thanks to the United States, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states, Kyiv also has the economic and military means to believe it can achieve its ambition. In contrast, it is increasingly clear that Russia lacks the…

archived 28 Sep 2022 01:52:02 UTC

The Biden administration is in wait-and-see mode as it tracks what effect protests in Iran might have on the Islamist regime.

Russia's nuclear doctrine is called "escalate to deescalate" or, more appropriately, "escalate to win," which means threatening or using nukes early in a conventional conflict. Even if Putin is now bluffing — most analysts think he is — he is getting

With its own coastal waters depleted, China has built a global fishing operation unmatched by any other country.

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Will a ‘Peak’ China decide now is the time for war with America: Hal Brands and Michael Beckley have breaking news from 1832! Namely that it sometimes makes sense for the weak to pick a fi

archived 25 Sep 2022 03:21:36 UTC

Russia’s mobilization is an epic disaster. Can it become a movement against the regime?

archived 12 Aug 2022 04:21:28 UTC

"While I still assess the use of nuclear weapons remains very low, it's not zero as many have written," retired Lieutenant General Robert Ashley told Newsweek.

As Putin mobilizes his reserves, moves to annex Ukrainian territory, and doubles down on his nuclear threats, our experts weigh in.

"Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons this will have to be taken seriously," one analyst said.

Poland, concerned about fighting around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, has distributed iodine tablets to regional fire departments to give to people in the event of radioactive exposure, a deputy minister said on Thursday.

archived 21 Sep 2022 06:29:33 UTC

How Washington came to see China as an existential threat, explained.

Russian leader’s escalatory threat to annex parts of Ukraine in effort to halt counteroffensive is fraught with risk

By publicly announcing that an attack on Tel Aviv and Haifa is being planned, Heydari gives Israel a reason to claim "the right of self-defense" or "preventive war" if and when it decides to take military action against the Islamic Republic. He says that