Emerging Risks

Moscow is recasting its fight with Ukraine as a broader war between Russia and the West, as Kremlin leaders and state propaganda outlets warn Russians that the conflict with its smaller neighbor could spill over into a global clash. The Kremlin and state-controlled media have warned in recent days that the West ultimately seeks to contain—or even destroy—Russia and have threatened retaliation, including the possibility of nuclear strikes.

What a difference a year makes. In the spring of 2021, China was reporting only a few dozen COVID cases each day and celebrating a return to steady economic growth. The United States, meanwhile, reeled from its worst death wave of the pandemic.  Media outlets around the world, from the Chinese Ministry of Propaganda to the New …

India’s accidental missile launch in Pakistan demonstrates the fragility of nuclear deterrence.

Could Mexico under the leadership of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador plunge into the political and economic tailspin which we associate with Venezuela under Hugo Chávez?

The economic war is most unlikely to affect the outcome of the Ukraine War, but it does seem likely to produce outcomes that will prejudice energy security and the climate agenda, while falling

US political scientist Graham Allison on Vladimir Putin and his friendship with Xi Jinping I think if you tried to put it in a single sentence, it is that if Putin is forced to choose between losing on the one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there’s every reason to believe he’ll escalate the level of destruction.

archived 1 May 2022 17:17:28 UTC

The deadlocked war with Ukraine has pushed Russia into an irreconcilable dilemma: it can neither accept reality nor keep denying it. This contradiction can be seen both in the official discourse on the unfolding disaster and the societal response to it. As one example, rampant patriotic mobilization persists alongside the pretense that normal life continues undisturbed. Likewise, there is the …

Joe Biden has chosen a high-risk strategy against Russia in Ukraine without managing, explaining, or perhaps comprehending the dangers.

archived 30 Apr 2022 01:41:24 UTC

Since President Putin invaded Ukraine in February, some 200,000 Russians have fled their country, scattering across western and eastern Europe.Around 30,000 ...

Russian President Vladimir Putin could expand his unprovoked war in Ukraine into other countries like Moldova and Georgia.

... in war game scenarios he had taken part in, which considered what would happen if Russia hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons, the only way of de-escalation was when “clear political off-ramps and lines of communication between Moscow and Washington have remained open. In all the other games, the world is basically destroyed.”

archived 30 Apr 2022 12:49:55 UTC

But even as Russia bludgeons its way into limited gains in the east, it has lost so much already in the conflict with Ukraine.

’Either we lose in Ukraine or the Third World War starts’, says top Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan

Terror group's Gaza chief vows attacks on 'thousands of synagogues' worldwide if police raid Al-Aqsa Mosque; urges West Bank Palestinians, Arab Israelis to commit terror attacks

War with China is very likely, but it is avoidable if we take the threat seriously and act now.

Nina Khrushcheva, an academic, warned the conflict in Ukraine is more dangerous because neither side appears prepared to 'back off'.

Russian TV host and Editor-in-Chief of state broadcaster RT, Margarita Simonyan, said she believed a nuclear strike to be the most 'probable' outcome in the war against Ukraine. One of the Kremlin's highest-profile mouthpieces, she also said that she believed World War III was 'realistic'.

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The leader of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group has warned that if Israel continues to target Iran’s presence in the region, Tehran could eventually retaliate by striking deep inside Israel

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Western arms supplies to Ukraine, including heavy weapons, posed a threat to the security of the European continent.

Currently, 62 percent of Americans see China as a competitor and 25 percent as an enemy.

Google reports that the most malicious cyberattacks in the U.S. are coming from Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China.

While continuing its armed assault on the battlefields of Donbas, the Kremlin is boosting its attacks against Ukraine on the information front as well. Russian propaganda’s continuing dehumanization of Ukraine and the West, which backs the Ukrainian defense efforts, is being used to justify increasingly radical methods in the Kremlin’s so-called “special military operation.” Perhaps the most serious event last …

Radio data collected from space is the next frontier.

Vladimir Putin uses warfare to make up for Russia’s weaknesses. That is why he is so dangerous

"The demographic system has tipped already, and so we're never going back to the consumption and production balance that we had in 2019 that got muddled by COVID. We were all worried about other things for two years and in that time we shifted. The Chinese are arguably the biggest beneficiary of the globalized system and it hasn't really sunk in just how terminal this is going to be for them in every way that you measure it: demographically, economically, culturally, nationally. The Chinese aren't even going to exist as a country I would say by the end of the decade, ..."