Emerging Risks

This Nuclear Notebook column examines Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which may include approximately 165 warheads. The authors estimate that the country’s stockpile could realistically grow to around 200 by 2025, if the current trend continues.

North Korea’s resumed activity at Yongbyon has reawakened calls for Seoul to go nuclear.

Newly released documents detail U.S. funding for several virus research programs going to the Wuhan Institute of Virology ...

IAEA also warns its ability to assess Iran's nuclear activities is 'seriously undermined' because Tehran is blocking its access to monitoring equipment

Declining American fertility signals a psychological cost for women.

Millennials are fueling the continued downward trend in fertility rates.

The world's major economies face a serious demographic crunch.

The number of men enrolled at two- and four-year colleges has fallen behind women by record levels, in a widening education gap across the U.S.

Evictions disrupt people’s health, relationships, work, and education. Now all those struggles will be exacerbated by the pandemic.

Social codes are changing, in many ways for the better. But for those whose behavior doesn’t adapt fast enough to the new norms, judgment can be swift—and merciless.

To know how great powers end, one could do worse than study the last one that actually did.

Taliban forces continue to battle resistance fighters in the last holdout province of Panjshir Valley

Chinese State Media has just released a document that states the USA is engaging in biological warfare and other transgressions against China, is this a decl...

Afghans stand out among the refugees committing crimes in Austria and elsewhere. Why?

The USS Kidd guided missile destroyer and the USCGC Munro cutter made a transit in the Taiwan Straits on Friday, the eighth time the US has sent warships through the Taiwan Straits this year. On the same day, the PLA held multiple military exercises on both sides of the Straits.

The Pentagon just had its first virtual meeting with China's military. But former officials warn the communications gap could lead to war.

Did you ever watch the movie The Sting former secretary of state Mike Pompeo boomed down the phone from Washington to me. Its an old movie. Its a Robert Redford classic and he and Paul Newman run a scam and they have a section called the shut-out where they refuse to take this money from this guy in a bag. Anyway. We were getting the shut-out from China.

"Our findings expose gaps between Chinese and Russian aspirations and the reality on the ground, bringing greater accuracy and nuance to current assessments of Sino-Russian cooperation," on AI, notes a new report by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

As their country sinks deeper into poverty and collapse, many Lebanese are more openly criticizing the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

The Second Lebanon War was probably the last time Israel was going to be able to focus on fighting on a single front. The next war may well be a regional war. This strategic shift will require a significant increase in the order of IDF forces and preparation of the Israeli public for the kind of […]

New developments largely hidden from the public eye make it clear that a military confrontation between Israel and Iran seems inevitable

Iran has inserted itself 'into the Syrian army's nervous system - its chain of command - and into the everyday lives of the local population,' Israeli commentator Ehud Yaari said.

The ROK-U.S. alliance is at a time of transition, and a lot of changes will be required to maintain the strength and effectiveness of the alliance into the future.

Hezbollah's deliveries of Iranian fuel highlight challenges faced by Washington as it seeks to combat the movement and address Lebanon's crises

The security apparatus in Israel erred when it believed that Hezbollah would not respond to its attacks in Lebanon, and despite the disciplined response by the Israeli army, Hezbollah, contrary to the assessment of the Israeli army, was quick to present a deterrence equation towards Israel, and it also seeks to restrict the freedom of […]

An old Israeli tank with a flag overlooking the Syrian town of Quneitra in the Golan Heights on Feb. 11, …

In wide-ranging briefing, defense minister says intel ties with US getting stronger, calls for strengthening the PA and keeping a strict blockade on Gaza until Hamas frees captives

The return to safe global strategic balance will require America regaining the world’s respect, and our enemies’ fear.

A conversation with my colleague Sinan Aral at PopTech 2011 reminded me of some earlier research I had carried out on the mathematics of war. So this is a good time to share some of the findings fr…

The demand to resettle Afghan refugees brings the war home.