Emerging Risks

Joint South Korean and U.S. military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise.

The United States and allies believe that North Korea is beginning to make preparations for a possible underground nuclear test for the first time since 2017.

A country grows or shrinks in three ways.

Good equipment and clever doctrine reveal little about how an army will perform in a war.

Excerpt from Podcast with Jordan Harbinger.Listen to full interview...https://www.jordanharbinger.com/peter-zeihan-why-the-world-should-care-about-ukraine/On...

The coming revenge of the disappointed.

China's diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan represents a threat to all democracies and the United States is committed to helping the island defend itself, the top U.S. diplomat in Taipei said.

Unless democracies defend themselves, the forces of autocracy will destroy them.

archived 31 Mar 2022 07:07:05 UTC

The most compelling reason why the international community is opposed to any border change is the capacity of changes in one border to spark consideration of changes in others, creating or at least exacerbating problems in the relations between existing countries. Until Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and his moves to absorb parts of Donbas …

This will put American allies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Israel in the crosshairs. The regional turmoil that America is set to unleash as a result will only exacerbate the current challenges to the U.S.-led world order.

Dmitry Medvedev, who served a President of Russia from 2008 to 2012, listed the four scenarios in which Russia would launch their nuclear arsenal

By Sarah N. Lynch

archived 29 Mar 2022 21:04:33 UTC

archived 29 Mar 2022 18:53:13 UTC

#PeterZeihan maintains his position that #china will no longer exist as a unified nation 10 years from now. He discusses China's One Child Policy, the population bomb, demographics and the Chinese Economy. He says that there is 1 in 3 chance that China will invade Taiwan. Follow Peter on Twitter: @PeterZeihan Full Interview here… https://youtu.be/nBLL3gg6RHk

As a candidate, South Korean President-Elect Yoon Seok-Yeol suggested that the ROK might need to preemptively strike North Korea.

archived 28 Mar 2022 10:04:30 UTC

Fertilizers, fuels, feed grain and cheap wheat--we've seen prices across the board jump in recent weeks following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. We know what ...

Every day, millions of sailors, truck drivers, longshoremen, warehouse workers and delivery drivers keep mountains of goods moving into stores and homes to m...

The prospect is growing all too real that Russia could resort to its deadliest weapons or trigger an accidental nuclear war.

archived 25 Mar 2022 11:19:42 UTC

Globalization has been under attack for two decades now. Can economic liberalism survive?

Unless the U.S. and its allies mobilize to save it, the second great age of globalization is coming to a catastrophic close.

“Ukraine’s example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond,” said the Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

After U.S. President Joe Biden's 2020 election victory, his future policy chief for the Indo-Pacific region said the new administration would have to decide quickly its approach to North Korea and its nuclear and missile programs.

Indo-Pacific military chief says Asian allies must take seriously the possibility of an attack on island

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MARK GALEOTTI: The war in Ukraine has turned into a disaster and everyone is looking for other people to blame. The atmosphere of mistrust is being stoked by Western intelligence services.

This year is shaping up to be a pendulum year—a moment in history when the big formative forces of world affairs reverse direction. There are telling parallels with the year 2001. Europe, however, needs to draw the right lessons.