Emerging Risks

Putin’s Most Embarrassing Milestone: Ukraine War Now Longer Than WWII Summary and Key Points: Day 1,418 of Russia’s invasion marks a grim milestone: the war has lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany. -Moscow’s early push toward Kyiv stalled not because Ukraine lacked warning, but because Russia’s corruption, poor discipline, and hollowed-out […]

archived 13 Feb 2026 16:23:34 UTC

Ali Ahmad Khomeini told a Lebanese TV station that Muslim nations had a “duty” to “erase” the Jewish state

Voters in leading allied states broadly support higher defense spending, but balk when faced with policy trade-offs.

Christopher A. Williams, The Coming War in America, No. 650, February 10, 2026 Download PDF The Coming War in America Christopher A. WilliamsChristopher A. Williams previously held senior

The Trump administration rejected continuing to abide by the expired New START agreement limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, because it fails to curb Moscow’s strategic arsenal and excludes China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear forces, a senior State Department official said Friday.

Russia and China and the Politics of Nuclear Coercion Last year, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded that both Russia and China are increasingly dependent on nuclear weapons to achieve th

archived 8 Feb 2026 20:53:21 UTC

“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” the source said, adding that Israel is not yet at that threshold.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is developing biological and chemical warheads for the country's long-range ballistic missiles, informed military sources told Iran International on Sunday.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani delivered a stark message, arguing the West has ignored a fundamental threat for decades. Giuliani said: “We have failed for a very, very long time to realize that there is a holy war against

Iran's supreme leader accuses the US of aiming to seize his country's oil and natural gas resources.

archived 30 Jan 2026 06:09:44 UTC

Internal tabulations from Iran's Health Ministry indicate that over 30,000 protesters were killed by security forces between January 8-9, 2026, a toll so high it reportedly exhausted the country's supply of body bags. As U.S. warships head to the Middle East, reports describe semi-trailers being used to transport bodies, with experts comparing the scale of violence to the World War II Babyn Yar massacre and Tiananmen Square. Amidst this bloodshed, analysts Ray Takeyh and Reuel Marc Gerecht urge the Trump administration to intervene, while the Atlantic Council outlines military options ranging from strikes on nuclear facilities to targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directly.

Pentagon's new National Defense Strategy prioritizes homeland defense over overseas missions, warning that future wars may hit U.S. soil directly.

Through the use of artificial intelligence, researchers have proven that the U.S. is not prepared for a war with China.

Annie Jacobsen lays out a second-by-second timeline for how nuclear war could happen. She also discusses time pressure, submarines, interceptor missiles, cyb...

Synopsis and Key Points: Former U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Gordon Gray draws striking parallels between the current 2026 protests in Iran and the 2011 Arab Spring. -Following the collapse of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Gray argues that Tehran faces a similar existential crisis driven by economic ruin and a loss of dignity. While […]

New internal ethics guidelines won’t be enough to stamp out the deeply embedded corruption within China’s People’s Liberation Army.

Key Points and Summary – Even if Iran’s current protests intensify, a clean democratic transition is unlikely. Like Syria’s early uprisings, hope can outrun political reality—especially when a regime retains a loyal core, commands vast patronage networks, and fears retribution. -The most destabilizing scenario is not reform but succession collapse: rival clerical factions, competing security […]

Synopsis: A new Pentagon Inspector General audit found F-35 aircraft availability averaged about 50% in fiscal year 2024, underscoring persistent sustainment and oversight shortcomings in the program’s contractor-driven support model. -The issue is broader than one fighter: Air Force-wide mission capable rates fell to roughly 67% in FY2024, the lowest in at least a decade, […]

Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong stated that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Today, Communist China’s military power has never been greater. A new Pentagon report warns that the United States is “increasingly vulnerable” to attack. Worse still: China, well aware of its growing strength, is flexing its muscles. China’s People’s […]

A month of accelerating developments, including missile tests, executions, high-level signaling, and military warnings, illustrate a dangerous reality: both Israel and Iran believe they are prepared, and both are looking to deter the other through strength rather than compromise.

No one should confuse the patchwork of temporary cease-fire agreements in place throughout the Middle East for sustainable deterrence and peace.

Western civilization arose in Greece in the 8th century BC, when some 1,500 city-states emerged from a murky, illiterate 400-year-old Dark Age.

archived 24 Dec 2025 21:35:31 UTC

China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to its border with Mongolia - the latest in a series of silo sites.

One of the most dangerous illusions Americans are living under today is the belief that safety is ambient, existing automatically, everywhere, and at all times, by virtue of laws, norms, or declarations. For decades, we have been trained to assume th...

As President Trump tries to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine, European leaders sound the alarm that Russia could target their countries next.