Emerging Risks

In 2020 the balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait began a gradual but profound shift in China’s favor.

As a military analyst specializing in China and Taiwan who has spent the past two years managing an open-source database tracking Chinese military activity, I am deeply concerned about the dangers that this activity poses. Alarms should be ringing, but neither Taiwan nor the United States has taken meaningful action to deter China, ... .

It is likely that there is going to be a war between Hezbollah and Israel within the next six to eight months.

So, either Nasrallah will order his forces north to the Litani River, or the IDF will force them back. Hezbollah will resist because that is what it purports to do—and what better way to burnish its tattered domestic credentials? It is unlikely there is any way to hold off war now.

The Israel-Hamas war, ongoing fighting in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and Africa herald 'what is likely to be a more dangerous decade,' a British military think-tank warned Tuesday.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual 'Military Balance' report that the world has entered 'a highly volatile security environment', which is set to endure.