Emerging Risks

20 years of searching for spider holes has given Russia, China lots of time to secure the skies for themselves

Successive U.S. administrations believed that by supporting China’s economic growth, a more liberal society would follow. That would never happen.

Physicists have long explored how phenomena in groups of three can sow chaos. A new three-body problem, they warn, could lead to not only global races for new armaments but also thermonuclear war.

All of this answers our question: It is exceedingly difficult to deter China in regard to Taiwan. Beijing will act against it when it believes it is ready.

archived 26 Jun 2023 16:41:03 UTC

A study by the University of Illinois Chicago found that time-restricted eating (intermittent fasting) led to similar weight loss and improved insulin sensitivity as traditional calorie restriction among adults with obesity. Participants in the time-restricted eating group ate fewer calories and los

Russian history shows it fares badly when confronted by defeat. Prigozhin’s march was called off, but Russia's internal crisis is not over.

Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group’s aborted munity in Russia has demonstrated the weakness of the Kremlin in controlling the situation inside the country, which, as shown by the so-called “march for justice,” can rapidly deteriorate in a matter of hours. While moving toward Moscow on June 24, the Wagnerites came dangerously close to facilities housing nuclear weapons in Borisoglebsk …

Putin’s provocative nuclear rhetoric has lately been echoed by other high-profile Russians. In a recent commentary, the honorary chair of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergei Karaganov, made the case for pre-emptive nuclear strikes. By hitting ‘a bunch of targets in a number of countries,’ he argued, Russia could ‘bring those who have lost their mind to reason’ and ‘break the West’s will’. Even coming from a hawk like Karaganov, that is a shocking proposition. But perhaps more worrying are similarly incendiary statements from historically moderate figures. Dmitri Trenin—the former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, who had long been considered a voice of reason in Russia—now advocates inserting the ‘nuclear bullet’ into the ‘revolver drum’. Trenin suggests that a pre-emptive strike could ‘dispel the mythology’ about NATO’s collective-defence clause and lead to the alliance’s dissolution.

Iran continues to pursue illicit nuclear weapons technology across Europe and is on the cusp of testing its first nuclear warhead, according to intelligence estimates from three separate countries. "The Iranian regime has consistently sought to obtain technology for its illegal nuclear program and ballistic missile apparatus," according to a summary of separate intelligence products published by […]

Ukraine pressed on with its counteroffensive just days after the Kremlin began deploying the weapons to Belarus.

Vladimir Solovyov predicted that the use of tactical nukes is "inevitable" before listing targets including Germany, Poland and Slovakia.

Putin is weakened and fears Nato encirclement. His militarisation of Russia’s northern border is intensifying, says Labour MP Barry Gardiner

Putin’s threats are a symptom of a wider anxiety that the US and Nato are bent on Russian dismemberment

Wall Street's dream of a big Chinese boom, post-COVID reopening, has officially gone bust.

Discrimination against queer people can undermine nuclear security and increase nuclear risk. Using queer theory can help change how experts and the public think about nuclear weapons.

archived 14 Jun 2023 18:13:07 UTC

Global fresh water demand is expected to outstrip supply by 40% to 50% by 2030

Germany's first national security strategy underscores the shift in emphasis from economic interests to geopolitics. Read more at straitstimes.com.

New evidence show joint studies involving UK and Iranian scientists on ‘advanced military technology’

The Russian president is desperate to appease ultra-nationalists. But all he has left are empty gestures

A tipping point is rapidly approaching that the West can use to its advantage

Those Western policymakers who invoke solemn principles and who offer righteous moral posturing when discussing the Russia-Ukraine War should take the time to read historian Margaret MacMillan’s

The Russian TV pundit said that should the conflict in Ukraine enter a nuclear phase, the U.S. would be among the targets "in the crosshairs" of a strike.

Hezbollah is believed to have over 250,000 projectiles in its arsenal aimed at Israeli towns and infrastructure

  Amid reports of renewed momentum in talks between Iran and the West over a nuclear deal, Israel sent a

China led the world in building more nuclear weapons last year and could have an arsenal as big as the United States by the end of the decade according to new research.

The unit's objective is to prepare for a potential conflict between Israel and Iran; its establishment is a major step in the Israeli military's strategic planning - the unique nature of such conflict necessitates a different approach compared to previous military operations

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Chief of Lebanese Hezbollah's Executive Council Sayyid Hashim Safiuddin has made important remarks about the regional situation and the struggle between the resistance and the Zionist regime in an interview with Tasnim.

There are now an estimated 12,512 warheads across the globe, with most of the new ones in military stockpiles said to be China’s