Emerging Risks

Emerging Risks

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[19-Mar-2025] Scoop: Trump gives Iran 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal in letter
[19-Mar-2025] Scoop: Trump gives Iran 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal in letter

Time is up from May 5 to May 19, 2025.

Why it matters: It isn't clear whether the two-month clock begins from the time the letter was delivered or from when negotiations start. But if Iran rejects Trump's outreach and doesn't negotiate, the chances of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities would dramatically increase.

·axios.com·
[19-Mar-2025] Scoop: Trump gives Iran 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal in letter
Iran Nuclear Program: What Would a Military Strike Mean for the Middl…
Iran Nuclear Program: What Would a Military Strike Mean for the Middl…
Coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear, military, and command infrastructure—including underground sites—are likely to escalate into a wider conflict, given the higher probability of retaliatory strikes.
·archive.md·
Iran Nuclear Program: What Would a Military Strike Mean for the Middl…
What the Iran War of 2025 Might Look Like
What the Iran War of 2025 Might Look Like
Summary and Key Points: The U.S. military is positioning B-2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia, signaling potential strikes against Iran amid heightened tensions. -Historically cautious, America’s approach to Iran seems to be changing under President Trump, especially after recent Iranian provocations, nuclear advancements, and direct attacks against Israel. -The strategic deployment indicates preparations for significant […]
·19fortyfive.com·
What the Iran War of 2025 Might Look Like
Iran Nuke Debate Is Another Narrative Collapse
Iran Nuke Debate Is Another Narrative Collapse
U.S. policymakers have relied on these IC assurances to kick the decision, and policy can down the road, now to the point where Iran very possibly has a bomb, and we are playing games over its definition.
#nuclear weapons#Iran
·realcleardefense.com·
Iran Nuke Debate Is Another Narrative Collapse
China's War Plans
China's War Plans
Xi Jinping’s Insecurity, China’s Economic Decline, and the Increasing Danger of War Over Taiwan The People’s Republic of China (PRC) makes no secret of its ambitions for global hegem
#china
·realcleardefense.com·
China's War Plans
The Chinese Nuclear Arsenal: More DoD Nuclear Threat Minimization
The Chinese Nuclear Arsenal: More DoD Nuclear Threat Minimization
The Biden Administration came into power intending to reduce U.S. nuclear weapons and, despite Russian aggression against Ukraine, some reductions were announced in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. Because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the reductions were largely vetoed by Congress but nothing positive was done to enhance the inadequate U.S. nuclear modernization program while the U.S. nuclear deterrent continued to age. It appears that the Biden Administration did not want to admit that it was going to allow China to build a larger nuclear force than that of the United States.
·realcleardefense.com·
The Chinese Nuclear Arsenal: More DoD Nuclear Threat Minimization
Defence chief warns Starmer one peacekeeping misstep could spark WWIII
Defence chief warns Starmer one peacekeeping misstep could spark WWIII
British spymaster Colonel Philip Ingram fears tyrant Vladimir Putin would never stick to any peace deal and could open fire on British troops acting as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
·dailymail.co.uk·
Defence chief warns Starmer one peacekeeping misstep could spark WWIII
Why the South China Sea is a time bomb
Why the South China Sea is a time bomb
Check out https://ground.news/searchparty for 40% off unlimited access with the Vantage Plan. Access international sources and compare how stories are framed...
·youtube.com·
Why the South China Sea is a time bomb
OVERRIDE
OVERRIDE
INSIDE THE REVOLUTION REWIRING AMERICAN POWER
·eko.substack.com·
OVERRIDE
The Implications of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine
The Implications of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine
President Putin will likely eventually use nuclear weapons unless he is deterred. Putin may blunder into a war with NATO given his commitment to nuclear coercion and nuclear superiority. Or, he may launch nuclear first use intentionally. The temptation to use nuclear weapons may override the risks. Russia’s new nuclear doctrine gives us more insight into Russia’s planning, which is threatening and dangerous.
·realcleardefense.com·
The Implications of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine
The U.S. Military Is Crumbling: A $137 Billion Crisis Unfolds
The U.S. Military Is Crumbling: A $137 Billion Crisis Unfolds
Just last week, flooding at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center made headlines after a pipe burst causing extensive damage and distress for patients amid deferred procedures. However, a failing steam system that severely limits staff’s ability to sterilize surgical equipment and “sharply” reduces the number of surgeries performed highlights the deferred maintenance bills due across every […]
·19fortyfive.com·
The U.S. Military Is Crumbling: A $137 Billion Crisis Unfolds
Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes
Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes
New intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program has convinced American officials that a secret team of the country’s scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb, according to current and former American officials.
·archive.md·
Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes
Netanyahu must push Trump to take action on Iran
Netanyahu must push Trump to take action on Iran
Any resolution must address all three components of Iran’s nuclear program: fissile materials, weaponization, and delivery systems.
·jpost.com·
Netanyahu must push Trump to take action on Iran
America Must Prepare for War
America Must Prepare for War
The recent viral video of a knife fight between a Russian and Ukrainian soldier provides a stark and brutal reminder of the realities of modern warfare. Captured from the helmet camera of th
·realcleardefense.com·
America Must Prepare for War
Will China go to war with Trump?
Will China go to war with Trump?
Though this scenario is fiction, for now, the chance of a major conflict over Taiwan in the not-so-distant future is real, and growing. Xi Jinping has declared in no uncertain terms that the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is not only essential but the very “essence” of the leader’s epochal vision for the “great rejuvenation” — making China great again by reestablishing it as the world’s number one superpower.
#world war iii#taiwan#war#geopolitics
·unherd.com·
Will China go to war with Trump?