Emerging Risks

When Beijing dispatched a relatively unknown rear admiral from its National Defense University to the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, bypassing its own defense minister and forfeiting its plenary address, i

archived 6 Oct 2025 04:50:24 UTC

A new Danish intelligence assessment blames Russia for employing various 'gray zone' tactics against its forces.

Key Points and Summary – A U.S.–China war would likely begin not with a declaration, but with a chain of miscalculations. -Five flashpoints stand out: a South China Sea confrontation that spirals; a Taiwan crisis that jumps from coercion to blockade or strikes; a clash around Japan’s Senkaku Islands; an unsafe aerial intercept that echoes […]

Have we arrived at a turning point in America, where our foreign and domestic threats have converged? It appears that Tehran has spun an intricate strategy to threaten the homeland, Americans as well

archived 23 Sep 2025 20:16:03 UTC

archived 2 Sep 2025 10:38:47 UTC

China’s nuclear modernization signals a recalibration of global strategy within which a new equilibrium must be formed.

The world is moving into a more dangerous age. According to the Peace Research Institute Oslo, last year set a grim record, namely the highest number of state-based armed conflicts in more than seven decades. At the same time, we are seeing a fundamental realignment of global geopolitics – made clear from the recent meeting

archived 3 Feb 2025 15:35:47 UTC

Key Points and Summary – If World War III starts in 2025, odds are it begins in one of five places: the Taiwan Strait, NATO’s eastern front, the Israel–Iran theater, the Korean Peninsula, or the India–China Himalayas. -Each flashpoint has its own fuse—unfinished wars, shifting deterrence, or alliance commitments that could drag in great powers […]

New research shows a sharp, accelerating rise in childlessness, with 5.7 million more women aged 20-39 without children than expected in 2024. This trend has contributed to 11.8 million fewer U.S. births since 2007.

Depopulation — unremitting, long-term population decline — promises to be the 21st century’s most important demographic trend. After centuries of seemingly unstoppable increase, world...

Key Points and Summary – Russia’s latest barrage sent more than 20 drones into Polish airspace, the first hostile act against a NATO member, and it triggered an immediate response in Poland. -Thousands have volunteered for military training as Warsaw rolls out an Israeli-style ready-reserve plan aimed at 500,000 trained citizens. -Prime Minister Donald Tusk […]

China is on track to become a peer nuclear power of the US in the next decade. John Lee argues that Beijing is building up its nuclear arsenal to gain a psyc...

Michaela Dodge, Russia Is at War with the West, No. 636, September 11, 2025 Download PDF Russia Is at War with the West Dr. Michaela DodgeDr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the N

Ray Dalio turned $5 into $160 billion by decoding how empires rise and fall. Now he warns: America is in decline, the UK is in trouble, China is gaining powe...

archived 10 Sep 2025 22:55:23 UTC

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week signalled that America and the European Union could "partner" on heightened sanctions to "collapse" the Russian economy amid its ongoing war with Ukraine. The savage Russian invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, sparked worldwide condemnation as leaders regarded it as unprovoked and unjustified. Meanwhile, Vladimir Solovyov, a presenter on Russian state television and close Putin ally,...

Key Points and Summary – Russia’s mass strike on Ukraine spilled into NATO airspace when 19 drones crossed from Belarus into Poland, forcing intercepts and an Article 4 consultation. -Warsaw, backed by allied F-35s, ISR and German Patriot units, downed multiple drones but stopped short of triggering Article 5. -Analysts see a deliberate probe of […]

North Korea reveals the Hwasong-20 ICBM ahead of a military parade in Beijing, signaling closer ties with China and Russia.

This IISS paper assesses Russia’s unconventional war on Europe, focusing on sabotage of critical infrastructure, from military sites and energy grids to communications and undersea cables, testing the resilience of European governments and societies and challenging NATO/EU deterrence.

archived 1 Sep 2025 16:16:53 UTC

Imagine a crisis where U.S. citizens are abruptly cut off from lifesaving medications. Pharmacy shelves are empty. And medicine cabinets lay bare. This isn’t a far-fetched dystopia. It’s a