Emerging Risks

Emerging Risks

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Grim Putin warning ahead of ‘Victory Day’
Grim Putin warning ahead of ‘Victory Day’
Speculation is rife about whether President Vladimir Putin will use Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9 to show the world just how powerful Russia really is.
·news.com.au·
Grim Putin warning ahead of ‘Victory Day’
Debate on Whether Moscow Must Mobilize for Ukrainian War Intensifies Inside Russia
Debate on Whether Moscow Must Mobilize for Ukrainian War Intensifies Inside Russia
Russian combat losses in Ukraine, problems with this year’s spring draft, trouble recruiting volunteers, and difficulties in forcing soldiers to fight abroad in the absence of a declaration of war are prompting ever more questions about how sustainable Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is at its current level of manning and resourcing (Online.ua, March 2; LBC, April 28). …
·jamestown.org·
Debate on Whether Moscow Must Mobilize for Ukrainian War Intensifies Inside Russia
Brace for May 9
Brace for May 9
On Russia’s Victory Day, we might find out whether Putin intends to extend his war to the rest of the planet.
·theatlantic.com·
Brace for May 9
Security Incidents in Moldova’s Transnistrian Region: Pretext for Escalation or Smokescreen?
Security Incidents in Moldova’s Transnistrian Region: Pretext for Escalation or Smokescreen?
Following the start of Russia’s large-scale military re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, concerns arose about the role that the Transnistrian region of Moldova could play in the Kremlin’s war plans. The territory has been under Russian military occupation since 1992, with Moscow’s military, security and civilian officials directing, assisting and funding its administration. It has de facto been run …
·jamestown.org·
Security Incidents in Moldova’s Transnistrian Region: Pretext for Escalation or Smokescreen?
Putin prepares Russians for nuclear war by stoking hatred of the West
Putin prepares Russians for nuclear war by stoking hatred of the West
Few people in the West are aware of how close Russia now is to escalating the war in Ukraine into an all-out nuclear conflict with the West. President Vladimir Putin is backed into a corner. A loss in the war in Ukraine, which is likely if it drags on in a conventional manner, will cause him serious political damage at home. To support him, the Russian media is now openly contemplating the benefits of a nuclear strike against the West. How will this end? It’s difficult to know. But the West needs to start realising that the threat is possible and even likely.
·youtube.com·
Putin prepares Russians for nuclear war by stoking hatred of the West
Will Putin go nuclear to avoid defeat in Ukraine? | The Strategist
Will Putin go nuclear to avoid defeat in Ukraine? | The Strategist
So, there’s a risk now emerging that in the face of military defeat at the conventional level, Russia will use nuclear weapons and plunge the world into a new and uncertain future. It’s a future in which low-yield nuclear weapons become usable in conflicts, certainly in terms of implicit and explicit coercive threats against military intervention—as China might do in a Taiwan crisis. In the worst case, a different perception of the operational utility of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons emerges in comparison to strategic nuclear forces. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, and the question is whether it can ever be put back in.
·aspistrategist.org.au·
Will Putin go nuclear to avoid defeat in Ukraine? | The Strategist
What Putin's general was doing in Ukraine, according to top secret report
What Putin's general was doing in Ukraine, according to top secret report
The official warns that from Putin's vantage point, though, deep dissatisfaction with the situation in Ukraine and fear of the west turning the tide might actually provoke a nuclear display of some sort—one intended to shock the west and bring a halt to the war. The supply of western arms is also now a serious game changer, resupplying Ukraine while Russia is increasingly constrained. "Escalation is now a true danger," says the senior official.
·newsweek.com·
What Putin's general was doing in Ukraine, according to top secret report
NATO has already crossed Vladimir Putin's "red line"
NATO has already crossed Vladimir Putin's "red line"
The Russian president has threatened retaliation if NATO crosses "red lines" in Ukraine. Some experts say those lines have already been crossed.
·newsweek.com·
NATO has already crossed Vladimir Putin's "red line"
Is Putin really willing to go nuclear?
Is Putin really willing to go nuclear?
The tone and tempo of threats from the Kremlin has escalated amid claims that Russia is fighting a wider war. It [nuclear war] still seems monstrously unlikely, but no longer unthinkable.
·newstatesman.com·
Is Putin really willing to go nuclear?
Russia Recasts Fight in Ukraine as War With the West - WSJ
Russia Recasts Fight in Ukraine as War With the West - WSJ
Moscow is recasting its fight with Ukraine as a broader war between Russia and the West, as Kremlin leaders and state propaganda outlets warn Russians that the conflict with its smaller neighbor could spill over into a global clash. The Kremlin and state-controlled media have warned in recent days that the West ultimately seeks to contain—or even destroy—Russia and have threatened retaliation, including the possibility of nuclear strikes.
·archive.ph·
Russia Recasts Fight in Ukraine as War With the West - WSJ
Putin’s nuclear threat and China ‘friendship’
Putin’s nuclear threat and China ‘friendship’
US political scientist Graham Allison on Vladimir Putin and his friendship with Xi Jinping I think if you tried to put it in a single sentence, it is that if Putin is forced to choose between losing on the one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there’s every reason to believe he’ll escalate the level of destruction.
·ft.com·
Putin’s nuclear threat and China ‘friendship’
Escalation of Lies and Threats Leaves Putin With Two Bad Choices
Escalation of Lies and Threats Leaves Putin With Two Bad Choices
The deadlocked war with Ukraine has pushed Russia into an irreconcilable dilemma: it can neither accept reality nor keep denying it. This contradiction can be seen both in the official discourse on the unfolding disaster and the societal response to it. As one example, rampant patriotic mobilization persists alongside the pretense that normal life continues undisturbed. Likewise, there is the …
·jamestown.org·
Escalation of Lies and Threats Leaves Putin With Two Bad Choices
The Guardian view on Putin’s nuclear threats: Russia is losing in Ukraine | Editorial
The Guardian view on Putin’s nuclear threats: Russia is losing in Ukraine | Editorial
... in war game scenarios he had taken part in, which considered what would happen if Russia hit Ukraine with nuclear weapons, the only way of de-escalation was when “clear political off-ramps and lines of communication between Moscow and Washington have remained open. In all the other games, the world is basically destroyed.”
·theguardian.com·
The Guardian view on Putin’s nuclear threats: Russia is losing in Ukraine | Editorial
Russia Has Already Lost the Ukraine War
Russia Has Already Lost the Ukraine War
But even as Russia bludgeons its way into limited gains in the east, it has lost so much already in the conflict with Ukraine.
·19fortyfive.com·
Russia Has Already Lost the Ukraine War