Emerging Risks

archived 10 Nov 2022 16:03:31 UTC

archived 1 Nov 2022 18:33:07 UTC

If China were to attack Taiwan, it wouldn’t just have to face a hostile superpower. It would also likely have to confront its longstanding regional rival, Japan. For centuries, Japan and China have vied for hegemony in East Asia; at times, they have

In 2011, James Clapper, President Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that both Russia and China posed “the greatest mortal threat” to the United Sta…

Some programs are being cut, but the Pentagon document points to a nuclear future.

Life finds a way — though humans might not. This is what we can expect the Earth to be like after an all-out nuclear war.

The Biden administration quietly reduced the role of nuclear weapons in American defense strategy by eliminating a decades-long policy of using nuclear arms as a hedge against future developments and Every word and phrase is carefully calibrated and parsed in the document, and nuclear policy analysts say the change in language could result in the elimination of hundreds of stored nuclear weapons. Critics of the change say the weapons are needed to backstop arms control talks and could be deployed to respond to any large-scale “breakout” by nuclear rivals. Defense sources told The Washington Times that the policy shift is significant and, in the view of critics, will undermine efforts to reach arms control accords and weaken deterrence against unanticipated nuclear threats.

A high-seas confrontation represented a potentially dangerous breach of international maritime protocol, one the U.S. sees as a troubling precedent since it happened on the Coast Guard’s first-ever mission to counter illegal fishing in the eastern Pacific.

archived 2 Nov 2022 15:33:21 UTC

What I learned about the challenge of resisting a regime that locks up thousands of political prisoners

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What

archived 1 Nov 2022 12:02:25 UTC

Russian construction companies say they are receiving more calls from citizens who are asking for bunkers to be built in their homes.

archived 30 Oct 2022 16:10:53 UTC

A new list of Black Swan events is lurking everywhere: from war between China and Taiwan, to revolution in Iran, and a global recession. Managing them is a high wire act in which we are a shock away from a fall, writes Stan Grant.

According to available information, Royal Navy representatives took part in planning and implementation of a terrorist act in the Baltic Sea, Russia's MoD said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine highlights the "acute threats" posed by Moscow, but China is the most consequential challenge for the United States, the US military said in a statement of its overall strategy…

Global warming, war and inflation: The world seems to be in a perpetual state of crisis at the moment. In an interview, crash prophet Nouriel Roubini identifies 10 "megathreats" we are facing and how he is dealing with them.

archived 28 Oct 2022 17:34:06 UTC

archived 27 Oct 2022 16:41:45 UTC

Can the international community see through the fog of its current crises and adequately prepare for an even bigger crisis further down the road?

Ancient creatures are emerging from the cold storage of melting permafrost, almost like something out of a horror movie.

Mark Clifford weighs in on pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai being found guilty of fraud by a Hong Kong court and Xi Jinping's tight control of the CCP.

In 1974, the BBC aired a 13-part television series titled The Fall of Eagles, which told the story of the decline and fall of three European empires--Romanov (Russia), Hapsburg (Austria-Hungary), and

China will challenge Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic region sooner than Chief of the Defence Staff General Wayne ...

The U.S. faces a window of strategic vulnerability unlike any it has experienced in the past two generations.

The military services most critical to deterring and/or defeating China don't exhibit much concern about the looming danger.

Leaders on all sides are pursuing policies inexorably driving us towards nuclear war. They must step back. Now.

The age of Arctic exceptionalism is gone: the high north region is no longer a protected sphere of Russia-West engagement and dialogue. The decision in March by Arctic Council states […]