Emerging Risks

Ukraine has both the political and popular resolve to liberate its territory. Thanks to the United States, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states, Kyiv also has the economic and military means to believe it can achieve its ambition. In contrast, it is increasingly clear that Russia lacks the…

archived 28 Sep 2022 01:52:02 UTC

The Biden administration is in wait-and-see mode as it tracks what effect protests in Iran might have on the Islamist regime.

Russia's nuclear doctrine is called "escalate to deescalate" or, more appropriately, "escalate to win," which means threatening or using nukes early in a conventional conflict. Even if Putin is now bluffing — most analysts think he is — he is getting

With its own coastal waters depleted, China has built a global fishing operation unmatched by any other country.

We are seeking to fill two positions on our editorial team: An editor/researcher and a membership editor. Apply by Oct. 2, 2022.   Aurora Borealis is the

Will a ‘Peak’ China decide now is the time for war with America: Hal Brands and Michael Beckley have breaking news from 1832! Namely that it sometimes makes sense for the weak to pick a fi

archived 25 Sep 2022 03:21:36 UTC

Russia’s mobilization is an epic disaster. Can it become a movement against the regime?

archived 12 Aug 2022 04:21:28 UTC

"While I still assess the use of nuclear weapons remains very low, it's not zero as many have written," retired Lieutenant General Robert Ashley told Newsweek.

As Putin mobilizes his reserves, moves to annex Ukrainian territory, and doubles down on his nuclear threats, our experts weigh in.

"Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons this will have to be taken seriously," one analyst said.

Poland, concerned about fighting around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, has distributed iodine tablets to regional fire departments to give to people in the event of radioactive exposure, a deputy minister said on Thursday.

archived 21 Sep 2022 06:29:33 UTC

How Washington came to see China as an existential threat, explained.

Russian leader’s escalatory threat to annex parts of Ukraine in effort to halt counteroffensive is fraught with risk

By publicly announcing that an attack on Tel Aviv and Haifa is being planned, Heydari gives Israel a reason to claim "the right of self-defense" or "preventive war" if and when it decides to take military action against the Islamic Republic. He says that

The growing ties between China and Russia are sparking new fears among U.S. war planners that the nuclear powers will soon pose a unified nuclear threat, the Air Force general nominated to head the nation’s nuclear deterrence arsenal told Congress.

A ‘tsunami of hunger’ and ‘real and dangerous risk of multiple famines this year’, head of World Food Programme warns.

War fears are no longer alarmist as the terror group supplants U.N. forces, increases military readiness, and becomes more reckless on Lebanon's southern border

The Karish maritime reservoir, part of which is claimed by Lebanon, is estimated to hold 2-3tn cubic feet of natural gas

Russia remains annoyed that the Ukrainian military has been using Starlink. However, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tells the public: 'Starlink is meant for peaceful use only.'

National Security Council urges citizens to check advisories before travel; Mossad foiled several potential attacks against Israelis in Turkey earlier this year

There are signs that a new Hezbollah attack may be coming in the next few weeks. This time the context is a natural gas dispute between Lebanon and Israel now being mediated by the United States.

Two scientists said the American Physical Society had erred in evaluating their plan to use drones to shoot down North Korean long-range missiles.

The tempo of attacks reflects a more general readiness for confrontation as the region enters a new phase.

The Plan A simulation has been viewed more than one million times since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.

Despite superior firepower, Russian forces have failed to fulfil their potential and face a dispiriting battle to regain the upper hand over Ukrainesia-Ukraine war: latest update

archived 18 Sep 2022 11:05:31 UTC