History, Ferguson argues, shows us that major conflicts typically arise from two conditions: economic volatility and imperial decline. Both are present in geopolitics today.
The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vacuum in Eastern Europe. Putin’s Russia, like Germany after World War I, emerged from this collapse with a sense of humiliation and revanchist ambitions.
Based on the article, the main threats mentioned include:
Escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel into a wider regional or global war
Formation of an "Axis of Upheaval" by Iran, China, and Russia to challenge American dominance
Middle East potentially becoming a superpower battlefield
Russia's advances in Ukraine and destabilizing influence in Africa
China's imperial ambitions over Taiwan and the South China Sea
Rise of authoritarian models challenging the liberal world order
Europe's industrial decline and economic vulnerability
Potential fragmentation of Europe under pressure from the East
Energy security concerns for Europe
Iran-Russia-China militarism
Dismantling of the liberal world order that has driven social, technological, and economic progress
China's exploitative practices in Africa, including labor abuse and predatory lending
Russia's neo-imperialism in Africa
Threat to globalization and its associated benefits of liberalism, freedom, democracy, and prosperity
“If the [Defense Department] is wrong, China may achieve superiority — several thousand nuclear weapons — within a few years,” said Mr. Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, which publishes the journal. ...
China’s long-range missiles are being outfitted with multiple warheads, with newer systems capable of carrying up to 10 warheads.
Recent Pentagon reports may have also substantially undercounted the number of Chinese nuclear weapons carried by bombers.
Mr. Schneider concludes that the aggressive Chinese nuclear buildup is neither defense-based nor intended to deter aggressors.
“Rather, it coincides with Beijing’s aggressive, expansionist policies in which nuclear weapons provide coercive leverage for regional expansion and the ultimate means in war-fighting strategies,” he said. ...
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