Emerging Risks

History, Ferguson argues, shows us that major conflicts typically arise from two conditions: economic volatility and imperial decline. Both are present in geopolitics today.

The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vacuum in Eastern Europe. Putin’s Russia, like Germany after World War I, emerged from this collapse with a sense of humiliation and revanchist ambitions.

Based on the article, the main threats mentioned include:

1. Escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel into a wider regional or global war

2. Formation of an "Axis of Upheaval" by Iran, China, and Russia to challenge American dominance

3. Middle East potentially becoming a superpower battlefield

4. Russia's advances in Ukraine and destabilizing influence in Africa

5. China's imperial ambitions over Taiwan and the South China Sea

6. Rise of authoritarian models challenging the liberal world order

7. Europe's industrial decline and economic vulnerability

8. Potential fragmentation of Europe under pressure from the East

9. Energy security concerns for Europe

10. Iran-Russia-China militarism

11. Dismantling of the liberal world order that has driven social, technological, and economic progress

12. China's exploitative practices in Africa, including labor abuse and predatory lending

13. Russia's neo-imperialism in Africa

14. Threat to globalization and its associated benefits of liberalism, freedom, democracy, and prosperity

“If the [Defense Department] is wrong, China may achieve superiority — several thousand nuclear weapons — within a few years,” said Mr. Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, which publishes the journal. ...

China’s long-range missiles are being outfitted with multiple warheads, with newer systems capable of carrying up to 10 warheads.

Recent Pentagon reports may have also substantially undercounted the number of Chinese nuclear weapons carried by bombers.

Mr. Schneider concludes that the aggressive Chinese nuclear buildup is neither defense-based nor intended to deter aggressors.

“Rather, it coincides with Beijing’s aggressive, expansionist policies in which nuclear weapons provide coercive leverage for regional expansion and the ultimate means in war-fighting strategies,” he said. ...