Emerging Risks

On Wednesday, January 26, the United States’ ambassador in Moscow, John Sullivan, personally delivered a memorandum to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs containing the official US reply to earlier Russian demands on security guarantees. Simultaneously, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) handed over to Moscow its separate written response. Both Washington and Brussels refused to deny countries like Ukraine …

A RAND Corporation simulated wargame in 2016 concluded that the Russian military could easily invade and defeat the Baltic States.

The real prize in Ukraine is the end of American influence in Europe.

President Joe Biden doesn’t have a plan for China. Or, more precisely, the Biden administration has failed to articulate its approach to grand strategy in

For Moscow and Beijing, the Ukraine crisis is part of a struggle to reduce American power and make the world safe for autocrats

Mainland analyst says extra military spending will only add to tensions and ‘is likely to increase the risk of misjudgment’.

Their growing capabilities have raised the threat of Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicles from nuisance to strategic level, on par with that posed by Tehran’s rockets and missiles.

From President Barack Obama and onward, U.S. foreign policy pivoted toward containing China, and giving priority to Asia. Europe and Russia were seen as regional powers, absent from the global, strategic chessboard. Washington came to see NATO as an aging alliance and Russia, a power in decline. Pol...

According to Andrei Soldatov, a security services expert, many of the people sent out to negotiate on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin do not always know what he's thinking.

Fiona Hill, a leading expert on Russia, says it's no 'accident that Putin has decided to act against the backdrop of Biden grappling with his own party.'

Such launches aren’t covered by U.N. resolutions that govern Pyongyang’s weapons activity. Kim Jong Un regime previously conducted four ballistic-missile tests this month.

The Chinese government’s increasingly aggressive diplomacy has hurt its image in much of the world. It’s unlikely to improve anytime soon.

Russian leaders have watched with mounting resentment as the transatlantic alliance has nearly doubled its membership since the end of the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin has drawn a red line in Ukraine.

Newly released emails make more plausible the contention that Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins presided over the suppression of the lab-leak theory for political reasons.

Analysts are questioning whether the West can actually deter Russia, and just how far Western allies are willing to go to defend the country.

Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

If indeed the United States’ future is as negative as its adversaries hope, Russia and China—as well as others—will definitely see it as an opportunity for advancing their own great power ambitions.

Putin’s Munich speech was an important diplomatic warning to the United States and its allies that Russia’s patience with NATO’s encroachment was at an end.

They have mostly avoided open clashes, but Iran's and Israel's campaigns against each other have been punctuated by attacks and assassinations.

Lebanon's financial collapse, which has pushed many into poverty, has also seen growing anger against Hezbollah, with more voices openly blaming it for the ongoing crisis and for its allegiance to Iran.

Two books, “How Civil Wars Start,” by Barbara F. Walter, and “The Next Civil War,” by Stephen Marche, examine if the United States is facing upheaval.

World leaders need to follow their words with action.

NATO members Romania and Bulgaria slammed Russia's demand to remove alliance troops from both countries as "unacceptable," with each arguing that the Kremlin has no right to interfere in the foreign policy decisions of other sovereign states.

archived 21 Jan 2022 13:11:08 UTC

Logistical challenges, NATO underinvestment, and more should make Ukraine and its neighbors very nervous.

As the year picks up, we should expect more missile testing. North Korea's Kim Jong Un shows few signs of backing down.

If the unthinkable happens and Hezbollah’s alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement fractures, it carries the risk of a breakdown in social cohesion among the Lebanese.

The Chinese Communist Party is using domestic films for mass messaging aimed at achieving political goals.

Tests would likely spark major escalation of tensions with US