Emerging Risks

Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

If indeed the United States’ future is as negative as its adversaries hope, Russia and China—as well as others—will definitely see it as an opportunity for advancing their own great power ambitions.

Putin’s Munich speech was an important diplomatic warning to the United States and its allies that Russia’s patience with NATO’s encroachment was at an end.

They have mostly avoided open clashes, but Iran's and Israel's campaigns against each other have been punctuated by attacks and assassinations.

Lebanon's financial collapse, which has pushed many into poverty, has also seen growing anger against Hezbollah, with more voices openly blaming it for the ongoing crisis and for its allegiance to Iran.

Two books, “How Civil Wars Start,” by Barbara F. Walter, and “The Next Civil War,” by Stephen Marche, examine if the United States is facing upheaval.

World leaders need to follow their words with action.

NATO members Romania and Bulgaria slammed Russia's demand to remove alliance troops from both countries as "unacceptable," with each arguing that the Kremlin has no right to interfere in the foreign policy decisions of other sovereign states.

archived 21 Jan 2022 13:11:08 UTC

Logistical challenges, NATO underinvestment, and more should make Ukraine and its neighbors very nervous.

As the year picks up, we should expect more missile testing. North Korea's Kim Jong Un shows few signs of backing down.

If the unthinkable happens and Hezbollah’s alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement fractures, it carries the risk of a breakdown in social cohesion among the Lebanese.

The Chinese Communist Party is using domestic films for mass messaging aimed at achieving political goals.

Tests would likely spark major escalation of tensions with US

Progressives are re-segregating American institutions under the guise of “racial equity.”

A Russian military invasion of Ukraine will encourage Finland and Sweden to press for NATO membership on very short notice.

Vladimir V. Putin met at the Kremlin with Iran’s new leader, Ebrahim Raisi, at a time when both their countries, despite their differences, are at odds with Washington.

archived 18 Jan 2022 22:37:26 UTC

Fears are rising over Russia's plans to shake up the region, writes BBC Europe editor Katya Adler.

Russia is claiming a sphere of influence and geographical space in which Moscow’s calculations and concerns prevail over all others.

If the Russians are bluffing, they’re good at it. In late November, Moscow began a costly buildup of about 100,000 troops and support personnel as well as heavy military equipment

A year on from the Jan. 6 insurrection, experts warn of catastrophic political violence, while political commentators invoke the specter of the 1860s and

The EU needs to respond to economic coercion or its geopolitical ambitions will be cruelly exposed

Over the past few years, NATO countries have helped Russia revolutionize its armed forces. Now questions are arising about a German defense contractor that trained the Russian military.

archived 20 Nov 2021 05:40:02 UTC

Late 2021 saw unprecedented threats of war and nuclear war from the Putin government. While Russian nuclear threats are common, the recent ones are fundamentally different for three reasons: 1) they a

When the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran, Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, visited Moscow in October 2021, Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science

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The threat of a U-turn in the Philippines’ South China Sea policy could loom large after May’s presidential elections, the Centre for International Security and Strategy warns.

The autocratic superpowers are increasingly pooling their advantages in taking on the Western democracies.