Emerging Risks

NATO members Romania and Bulgaria slammed Russia's demand to remove alliance troops from both countries as "unacceptable," with each arguing that the Kremlin has no right to interfere in the foreign policy decisions of other sovereign states.

archived 21 Jan 2022 13:11:08 UTC

Logistical challenges, NATO underinvestment, and more should make Ukraine and its neighbors very nervous.

As the year picks up, we should expect more missile testing. North Korea's Kim Jong Un shows few signs of backing down.

If the unthinkable happens and Hezbollah’s alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement fractures, it carries the risk of a breakdown in social cohesion among the Lebanese.

The Chinese Communist Party is using domestic films for mass messaging aimed at achieving political goals.

Tests would likely spark major escalation of tensions with US

Progressives are re-segregating American institutions under the guise of “racial equity.”

A Russian military invasion of Ukraine will encourage Finland and Sweden to press for NATO membership on very short notice.

Vladimir V. Putin met at the Kremlin with Iran’s new leader, Ebrahim Raisi, at a time when both their countries, despite their differences, are at odds with Washington.

archived 18 Jan 2022 22:37:26 UTC

Fears are rising over Russia's plans to shake up the region, writes BBC Europe editor Katya Adler.

Russia is claiming a sphere of influence and geographical space in which Moscow’s calculations and concerns prevail over all others.

If the Russians are bluffing, they’re good at it. In late November, Moscow began a costly buildup of about 100,000 troops and support personnel as well as heavy military equipment

A year on from the Jan. 6 insurrection, experts warn of catastrophic political violence, while political commentators invoke the specter of the 1860s and

The EU needs to respond to economic coercion or its geopolitical ambitions will be cruelly exposed

Over the past few years, NATO countries have helped Russia revolutionize its armed forces. Now questions are arising about a German defense contractor that trained the Russian military.

archived 20 Nov 2021 05:40:02 UTC

Late 2021 saw unprecedented threats of war and nuclear war from the Putin government. While Russian nuclear threats are common, the recent ones are fundamentally different for three reasons: 1) they a

When the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran, Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, visited Moscow in October 2021, Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science

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The threat of a U-turn in the Philippines’ South China Sea policy could loom large after May’s presidential elections, the Centre for International Security and Strategy warns.

The autocratic superpowers are increasingly pooling their advantages in taking on the Western democracies.

The flurry of diplomatic activity last week over Russia’s latest military buildup near Ukraine ended, as expected, with no breakthrough agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a “dead…

archived 14 Jan 2022 00:33:18 UTC

In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power confronted a ruling power, the result was bloodshed.

archived 16 Jan 2022 12:43:40 UTC

Lessons from a Chinese jet’s fatal collision with a US spy plane, 21 years ago

The nearly two-decade-old U.S. military mission in Iraq has entered a dangerous new phase, with critics warning the Biden administration has allowed the mission to carry on without clear parameters or

While there is a growing parallel between the Taliban’s objectives in Afghanistan and Iran’s objectives in the Middle East, in other part of the region, Iranian regime is seeing its key ally within Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas. Such alliance not only would pose gravest threat to the national security of the State of Israel, […]