Emerging Risks

Emerging Risks

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Hell, One Step at a Time
Hell, One Step at a Time
In 1991, the American historian Christopher Browning wrote a book called Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland about the Ordnungspolizei (Order Police) Reserve Unit 101. The book detailed in a very psychologically plausible manner the terrible transformation of conventional and essentially well-socialized working men—most with families—into killers capable of taking naked pregnant women into the Polish countryside and executing them with a pistol shot to the back of the head. Such a book is best read with caution—and, more importantly (with that caution firmly in mind), read as a potential perpetrator, rather than as a hypothetical victim or, worse, hero. The men of Police Battalion 101 were tasked with mopping up after the Nazis had marched through and subdued Poland. Their commander, Major Wilhelm Trapp, was by all accounts a decent man, considering the times. Furthermore, the men in the battalion were all middle-aged citizens of Hamburg with no military experience, drafted but found ineligible for regular duty, who had matured prior to the intense propagandizing of young people typifying the Hitler Youth. They were not abnormally cruel, nor were they were in the main ardent anti-Semites. No simple explanations (sadism; prejudice) were going to suffice as Browning attempted to account for their behavior. Within the unit were a few professionally trained SS men, cruel and psychopathic, who tended to regard their commander Trapp as weak, unmilitary, and prone to interfere inappropriately in the duties of his officers. A few others were reservists, rather than career policemen. The majority, however, were working-class men of the less professionalized sort, warehouse and construction workers, machine operators, waiters, and seamen, among others. They averaged almost forty years in age—too old for general conscription. They weren’t even particularly likely to be Nazi party members (about 25% percent). As Browning points out, “these men would not seem to have been a very promising group from which to recruit mass murderers on behalf of the Nazi vision of a racial utopia free of Jews.” Some of them, after being informed to a certain degree of the intensity of what they might be required to do in a now-subdued country, asked to be released from their work and placed elsewhere—and the option to leave appears to have been offered to them by their commander. Indeed, Browning even recounts the story of a police officer who requested and was granted his release, and who obtained a promotion on his return to Germany. Nonetheless, only 12 men in the 500-man strong battalion would choose to withdraw as they learned the true nature of the jobs. Furthermore, by all accounts, the majority of them would suffer terribly as they transformed themselves into the monsters they would soon become.Ordinary Men is horrifying not least because of its graphic accounts of the actions undertaken by the now-policemen, once transported to Poland. But what makes it truly terrible is its aforementioned psychological plausibility. These men were indeed “ordinary.” They weren’t following orders under threat of punishment. With this firmly in mind, Browning confronts and articulates the moral conundrums associated with the study of history. It is all-too-tempting (and also something that provides a certain degree of naïve psychological security) to read the past and to cast the villains as all-villainous and the heroes as all-virtuous. But that’s propaganda, not history. Even in the literary world, the work of quality presents the ever-present moral battle not as raging between purely evil states and good, or purely evil people and good, but as a consequence of the complex and paradoxical forces of good and evil working themselves out in terrible conflict within each soul, between individuals, and in the battle between states. This is not to say that darker forces do not sometimes dominate at one or more of these levels. I’m not equating the Axis powers with the Allies, or the Soviet or Maoist communists with the free West. But the temptation toward deceit, arrogance, resentment, ideological possession, and the projection of all evil onto something conveniently other than a combination of self, compatriot, family, and state is dangerously alluring. At the very least, it interferes with the kind of introspection that might produce genuine moral progress—which is something still required, no matter how good the current state—on the part of individual and society alike. The Order Police were placed under the auspices of four special mobile units of the SS known as Einsatzgruppen, described by Browning as “the thin cutting edge of German units that became involved in political and racial mass murder in Russia” and elsewhere. In 1941, after the staggering initial successes of the Nazi blitzkrieg, Hitler ordered an intensification of the pacification program behind advancing German lines—part of his desire to create a permanent “Garden of Eden” for the Aryan race east of Germany. The actions of Battalion 101 were to be part of that program, which involved, in Hitler’s own words, “shooting anyone who even looks askance at us.” The fundamental problem facing the giant bureaucracies overseeing the Final Solution was transport: the massive camps, equipped for mass murder, mostly in the form of poison gas, were set up in 1941 at Auschwitz/Birkenau, Chelmno, Birkenau (as well as Sobibor and Treblinka, a bit later). This raised the joint problems of staffing these enormous institutions, as well as moving those destined for work and death to the camps. There were 2,000,000 Jews under General Government command in what was once Poland, and 300,000 in the Lublin district alone. Himmler himself provided no resources to implement these programs; the man charged with a leading role in the Polish extermination project, Austrian Odilo Globocnik, was therefore forced to raise private armies to undertake the task himself. He buttressed his thin quasi-professional resources with the Trawnikis, non-Polish “auxiliaries” drawn primarily from the Ukrainian, Latvian, and Lithuanian POWs who were screened for anti-communism, offered a reprieve from starvation, and promised that they would not be sent as front-line combatants against the Soviets. It was into this milieu, replete with an oversupply of Jewish transportees brought in from other areas to replace those who had already been deported, that the men of Battalion 101 arrived in Lublin. Their orders indicated they would be performing guard duty. As Browning points out, “there is no indication whatsoever that even the officers suspected the true nature of the duties that awaited them.” The Battalion men began by collecting Jews in smaller settlements and consolidating them in larger camps and ghettos, sometimes using trucks, sometimes on foot. None of this involved mass execution, although Jews who were frail, old, and sick were shot, at least in some instances. That might be considered the beginning (although even the mass deportations constituted a clear step down a bad road). However, Globocnik quickly realized that the speed of merely collecting people was insufficient, and determined to hasten the eradication process with onsite mass execution by firing squad. Things changed dramatically for the worse in Józefów, a small town in east central Poland, which had at that time a population of about 1800 Jews. Globocnik or someone close to him informed Trapp that these people were to be rounded up, as usual, but that only the males capable of working were to be transported. The elderly, women, and children were to be executed on the spot. One Lieutenant Heinz Buchmann refused, forthrightly, stating that “he would in no case participate in such an action, in which defenseless women and children are shot.” Lieutenant Hagen, Trapp’s representative, agreed to reposition Buchmann and placed him in charge of the male Jews selected for work. This is a very telling episode, in my estimation. Buchmann made his move under very dire and dangerous personal circumstances, and was not punished for it: He was merely reassigned. Although there were undoubtedly times when moral objection to an unacceptable order (the massacre of unarmed women and children certainly topping the bill) would have resulted in extreme personal danger, and perhaps even danger to family members, we don’t know how common such retaliatory threats actually were, nor how often such malevolent orders could have been successfully refused. It may be, after all, that under such circumstances the resistor has such a clear upper hand, morally speaking, that it is difficult to effectively criticize or to discipline him. In any case, the next morning, when the truck convoy arrived in Józefów, Trapp made another extraordinary offer: “any of the older men who did not feel up to the task that lay before them could step out.” A dozen men abandoned the operation, after facing some abuse from Hoffmann. Is it too much to point out that a decision of that sort, even when accompanied by accusations of betrayal and cowardice, appears far preferable to outright participation in mass murder of the most conscience-betraying sort? And to note also how tiny the minority of men was who stepped voluntarily aside, and how few followed in their footsteps, even after the example of resistance had been made? The remaining men were ordered to surround the village, shoot any escapees, escort the Jews to the marketplace, and shoot all too resistant, sick, or frail to comply (as well as infants incapable of the journey). This meant the massacre of the weakest and least able to defend themselves. Something less in keeping with any sense of military honor could hardly be imagined. Trapp himself did not witness the executions: “Oh, God, why did I have to be given these orders,” he said, in a clearly heartfelt manner. His tears flowed copiously. He asked a subor...
·thinkspot.com·
Hell, One Step at a Time
Will Russia Lower Its Nuclear Weapons Use Threshold?
Will Russia Lower Its Nuclear Weapons Use Threshold?
In August 2020, noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgenhauer warned, “The Kremlin is constantly playing the deterrence game by trying to scare the West. But this situation has two dangerous ramifi
·realcleardefense.com·
Will Russia Lower Its Nuclear Weapons Use Threshold?
George Magnus: Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy
George Magnus: Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy
Under President Xi Jinping, China has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, but the country also faces serious challenges including debt, "the middle income trap," the renminbi, and an aging population. In Red Flags, George Magnus argues that Xi's authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country's economic aspirations. How do the political challenges at home and abroad threaten China's continued rise? Can Xi Jinping, who may be president-for-life, be open to reform? George Magnus is an associate at the China Centre at Oxford Univers...
·youtube.com·
George Magnus: Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy
US warns that Iranian government-sponsored hackers are targeting key US infrastructure
US warns that Iranian government-sponsored hackers are targeting key US infrastructure
Iranian government-sponsored hackers are actively targeting a "broad range of victims" across multiple US sectors, including transportation and health care, and in some cases are deploying ransomware against those victims, US federal agencies and their counterparts from the United Kingdom and Australia warned on Wednesday.
·edition.cnn.com·
US warns that Iranian government-sponsored hackers are targeting key US infrastructure
America’s Authoritarian Left
America’s Authoritarian Left
Suppression of speech and political activity from the usual sources
·americanmind.org·
America’s Authoritarian Left
China’s nuclear and military buildup raises the risk of conflict in Asia
China’s nuclear and military buildup raises the risk of conflict in Asia
Beijing's buildup is adding to a dangerous arms race across the Indo-Pacific. It is a setback for nuclear nonproliferation, which was already backsliding this decade, experts say, and raises the risks of conflict.
·stripes.com·
China’s nuclear and military buildup raises the risk of conflict in Asia
Algeria-Morocco tensions: The onset of a regional cold war
Algeria-Morocco tensions: The onset of a regional cold war
On Nov. 1, three Algerian citizens were killed in the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The Algerian presidency issued a statement accusing Morocco of carrying out an attack with a “sophisticated weapon” on two Algerian transport convoys. This was only the latest episode in a process of escalation between the two countries. The Algerian authorities had previously cut their diplomatic relations with Morocco on Oct. 24 due to rising tensions. Even though the relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been contentious, the death of three Algerian citizens could prove to be a turning point.
·mei.edu·
Algeria-Morocco tensions: The onset of a regional cold war
Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test - SpaceNews
Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test - SpaceNews
A Russian satellite broke up in low Earth orbit in a deliberate test of a Russian anti-satellite device that created thousands of pieces of debris.
·spacenews.com·
Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test - SpaceNews
'China Rising' documentary premieres this week
'China Rising' documentary premieres this week
Sky News host Peter Stefanovic has spoken to Paul Murray about his upcoming documentary ‘China Rising’. “This is the story of our time. China is the story of our time,” Mr Stefanovic said. “It influences so many nations around the world.” Sky News anchor and investigative journalist Peter Stefanovic presents a landmark two-part documentary China Rising on Tuesday November 16 and Wednesday 17 November at 8pm AEDT.
·youtube.com·
'China Rising' documentary premieres this week
China is 'certainly preparing' for something
China is 'certainly preparing' for something
Australia needs to be prepared – because China is certainly "preparing for something", says ‘China Rising’ host Peter Stefanovic. Mr Stefanovic discussed his documentary, 'China Rising', with Sky News host Chris Kenny – who told him the timing of the documentary's release could not have been more "apt". "China has always been at the top of the news agenda for one reason or another," Mr Stefanovic said. "But now that you've got these comments that have come from Paul Keating, you've got meetings that are going to take place over in the United States at the moment too between Xi and Biden and everything else. "Everything that's going on at the moment in China seems to be a top story wherever we go."
·youtube.com·
China is 'certainly preparing' for something