Emerging Risks

Can Beijing and Washington escape the Thucydides Trap?

Can Beijing and Washington escape the Thucydides Trap?

The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on?

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold :: The Market Oracle ::

Under President Xi Jinping, China has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, but the country also faces serious challenges including debt, "the middle income trap," the renminbi, and an aging population. In Red Flags, George Magnus argues that Xi's authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country's economic aspirations. How do the political challenges at home and abroad threaten China's continued rise? Can Xi Jinping, who may be president-for-life, be open to reform? George Magnus is an associate at the China Centre at Oxford Univers...

The weaponization of migrants shows how gray-zone tactics flummox an alliance set up to deal with conventional or nuclear attacks.

Iranian government-sponsored hackers are actively targeting a "broad range of victims" across multiple US sectors, including transportation and health care, and in some cases are deploying ransomware against those victims, US federal agencies and their counterparts from the United Kingdom and Australia warned on Wednesday.

UN atomic watchdog also denies its cameras had a role in June attack on Iranian centrifuge plant, which the Islamic Republic has blamed on Israel; IAEA chief set to visit Tehran

Semi-official Tasnim news agency says the incident is due to outdated infrastructure

Suppression of speech and political activity from the usual sources

Can an American-Led coalition prevent the next war?

Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move is being watched closely by experts.

Beijing's buildup is adding to a dangerous arms race across the Indo-Pacific. It is a setback for nuclear nonproliferation, which was already backsliding this decade, experts say, and raises the risks of conflict.

EUROPE is bracing itself for an energy crisis this winter after approval for Russia’s controversial gas pipeline into Germany was suspended by regulators.

During visit to massive military drill, PM voices concerns over international community going soft on Tehran's violations, reiterates that 'Israel will defend itself, by itself'

'Iran right now does not prefer war, and it feels inferior' militarily, the expert says - Click the link for more details.

On Nov. 1, three Algerian citizens were killed in the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The Algerian presidency issued a statement accusing Morocco of carrying out an attack with a “sophisticated weapon” on two Algerian transport convoys. This was only the latest episode in a process of escalation between the two countries. The Algerian authorities had previously cut their diplomatic relations with Morocco on Oct. 24 due to rising tensions. Even though the relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been contentious, the death of three Algerian citizens could prove to be a turning point.

A Ronald Reagan Institute task force says the government needs to spend more on job training and manufacturing infrastructure.

A Russian satellite broke up in low Earth orbit in a deliberate test of a Russian anti-satellite device that created thousands of pieces of debris.

“Israel stands at a crossroads,” says long-serving former senior minister Tzahi Hanegbi. “We have no more than three, four, five

Sky News host Peter Stefanovic has spoken to Paul Murray about his upcoming documentary ‘China Rising’. “This is the story of our time. China is the story of our time,” Mr Stefanovic said. “It influences so many nations around the world.” Sky News anchor and investigative journalist Peter Stefanovic presents a landmark two-part documentary China Rising on Tuesday November 16 and Wednesday 17 November at 8pm AEDT.

Australia needs to be prepared – because China is certainly "preparing for something", says ‘China Rising’ host Peter Stefanovic. Mr Stefanovic discussed his documentary, 'China Rising', with Sky News host Chris Kenny – who told him the timing of the documentary's release could not have been more "apt". "China has always been at the top of the news agenda for one reason or another," Mr Stefanovic said. "But now that you've got these comments that have come from Paul Keating, you've got meetings that are going to take place over in the United States at the moment too between Xi and Biden and everything else. "Everything that's going on at the moment in China seems to be a top story wherever we go."

If the 20th century was the story of slow, uneven progress toward the victory of liberal democracy over other ideologies—communism, fascism, virulent nationalism—the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.

Is Beijing building a rival alliance system?

The crisis intensifies as hundreds more migrants arrive at the border with Poland.

The Kremlin has lashed out at Britain over the spiralling migrant crisis which is fuelling tensions in Eastern Europe.

Nato's chief urges Russia to be transparent over its "large and unusual" massing of border forces.

There is a greater risk of an accidental war breaking out between the West and Russia than at any time since the Cold War, with many of the traditional diplomatic tools no longer available, Britain's most senior military officer said.

The US believes Beijing will quadruple its warhead arsenal by 2030. Could this alter the balance of power in Asia?

Four new geostrategic realities are challenging U.S. deterrent and arms control strategy.