Emerging Risks

A conversation with my colleague Sinan Aral at PopTech 2011 reminded me of some earlier research I had carried out on the mathematics of war. So this is a good time to share some of the findings fr…

The demand to resettle Afghan refugees brings the war home.

Australians shrug at their government’s draconian pandemic response.

In the midst of the Israeli-Hamas crisis of 2021, from May 13 to 19, about a dozen rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel. This was the first time since late 2015 that such an attack was carried out, breaking the unofficial ceasefire and paving the road for further attacks over the summer. The next …

A study led by McMaster University scientists has found that a commonly-used pesticide could be partially responsible for the global obesity crisis.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday said it will ban the use on food crops of the pesticide chlorpyrifos, which has been linked to health problems in children.

One Japanese official warned that, given the removal of the range cap, from now on South Korea can have missiles with a range sufficient to cover the entire Japanese archipelago.

Military, defense minister believe a credible threat of an Israeli attack on Tehran's nuclear facilities is only way US will be able to negotiate better deal with Islamic Republic

Will Iran's 'deniable' attacks become open hostilities?

Terror group's chief Nasrallah doesn't say how ship will deliver cargo in defiance of US sanctions

  The Iranian presence on the Syrian-Israel border is a well-known fact, but a new report from a Syrian research

Was the coronavirus manipulated to infect humans? If so, that will inform our response.

U.S. spy agencies are about to report on COVID-19’s origins, but don’t hold your breath.

As it leaves Afghanistan in chaos, America’s decline mirrors Britain’s a century ago. It may also invite wider conflict, warns a historian | By Invitation

The real estate bubble has made prices beyond unaffordable, but even a simple solution like a property tax could be a dire threat to the economy.

Why China will never have the world’s preeminent economy.

Fires are supposed to reset ecosystems, paving the way for new growth. But human meddling and climate change have turned them into monsters.

The sorry spectacle will convince a great many Americans that we are nothing but arrant hypocrites.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh attends a groundbreaking ceremony for the Rafah Medical Complex in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on Nov. …

The failure in Afghanistan is a rude awakening for America 20 years too late.

It seems that the Iranian regime has provided Israel with the perfect excuse to take military action against Tehran. This opportunity came after the Islamic Republic was implicated in the drone strike on an oil tanker, owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer, off the coast of Oman. Two crew members, a Briton and a Romanian, died in the attack. This has led to heated exchanges between Israeli and Iranian leaders that have reached dangerous levels.

Iran has begun the process of producing enriched uranium metal, the U.N. atomic watchdog said on Tuesday, a move that could help it develop a nuclear weapon and that three European powers said threatened talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Iran has made progress in its work on enriched uranium metal, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in a report to member states on Monday seen by Reuters, despite Western warnings that such work threatens talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

The IPCC is unequivocal: we must take urgent action to curb global heating and prevent catastrophe. Will our policymakers and the Cop26 conference be up to the task?

The U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard—the U.S. sea services—are currently prosecuting “Large Scale Exercise 2021.” The maneuver’s banal codename belies its ambition. Navy spokesmen bill it as the biggest exercise in a generation, and one that spans seventeen time zones. Its immediate goal is to prove out operational concepts that have remained mostly […]

China is building a third missile field that will hold more than 100 new DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles, The Washington Times has learned.

The Quad's success poses a major threat to Beijing’s ambitions.

Iran’s nuclear program is chugging ahead at the highest levels of enrichment ever and with the least international supervision in years.

Hezbollah continues to develop its arsenal with a continued focus on precision guided munitions, and both Israel and Hezbollah watch for any change in the rules of engagements along the Blue Line.

William Burns visits Israel for talks focused on Iran; reportedly given dossier describing Ebrahim Raisi as a demented extremist who can't be negotiated with