Emerging Risks

The Russia-North Korea mutual security pact, Moscow’s unceasing nuclear threats, Russia’s global nuclear power sales drive, Iran’s race for nuclear weapons, and China’s “breathtaking” nuclear expansion, are the stuff of daily headlines. They all point to increasing nuclear proliferation, multiplying nuclear threats, and the emergence of an increasingly cohesive bloc of powers fully willing to threaten and possibly employ nuclear weapons.

Consequently, both nonproliferation and deterrence are under sustained attacks on multiple, interactive fronts as is any concept of international order or security. These threats challenge not only Washington but also allies in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. This is leading to significant increases in conventional and nuclear weapons spending in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia (India) and East Asia in reaction to Russo-Chinese, Russo-North Korean, and other threats.

Go to time 4:21.

Former Deputy National Security Advisor KT McFarland discusses the threats we face.

The axis of evil has a window of opportunity over the next 6 months. They are going to use it. We are going to see one crisis after another in the next 6 months.

Key Points of the Article:

• Iran's New Strategy: Iran is using its advanced nuclear capabilities (being a "threshold state") as a deterrent against attacks and sanctions.
• Threats and Rhetoric: Iran has threatened to build nuclear weapons if Israel or the US attacks its nuclear facilities or reimposes sanctions.
• Risks of the Strategy:
  
  • This strategy may lead Iran to actually build nuclear weapons.
  • It increases tensions and risks miscalculation leading to war.
  • International inspectors may not be able to properly monitor Iran's program.
• Recommendations for US and Allies:
  • Increase diplomatic pressure to convince Iran not to build a bomb.
  • Strengthen monitoring and intelligence capabilities.
  • Prepare consequences for Iranian nuclear provocations.
  • Work on a new diplomatic agreement with Iran before October 2025 deadline.