East-West Center in the News

(2011-12-27) Denny Roy, a North Korea analyst at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said observers outside North Korea will be performing "the usual Kremlinology -- except in this case it's Pyongyangology." They will be watching the ceremonies for clues as to where leading figures stand in the new hierarchy, comparing the event to the 1994 funeral of North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung.

"What I expect to see is no sign that there's any hiccup or difficulty in Kim Jong Il's plan to have his son Kim Jong Un succeed him," Roy said.

Among those expected to be at the side of the "great successor" are his aunt and uncle. The late ruler's sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband, Jang Sung Taek, are expected to serve as regents for the young Kim as he builds leadership experience, Roy said.

"They will be very prominently featured in all of the public ceremonies," he said. "They'll have places that are very close to Kim Jong Un. If it was otherwise, it would be a dramatic new development, but I don't expect that."

... Roy said Kim now lives in the Chinese casino haven of Macau and is "more or less exiled."

"It's rather significant that in a Confucian society, the oldest son won't play a significant role in the funeral," he said. "That speaks to a very strained relationship between him and the current leadership."

-- Also appears in over 50 other news sources

(2011-12-27) "The process will be very long. Don't expect any quick change, quick fix to the problem we have," said Kang Wu, energy expert with the East West Center. "The infrastructure challenge is one of the reality checks we have to do to deal with this kind of issue."

Wu says 100 percent renewable energy is decades away and he agrees your electric bill will continue to rise.

"I just don't see the cost of the energy use in Hawaii will be coming down anytime soon simply because everything is related to the oil," said Wu. "The high cost probably is still a way of life for Hawaii for a long long time."

(2011-12-28) Jang Song Taek, who was shown walking behind Kim Jong Un on Wednesday, is expected to serve as a regent for the younger Kim as he builds leadership experience, said Denny Roy, a North Korea analyst at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

-- Also appears in over 50 other news sources

(2012-01-06) "This document emphasizes the pessimistic scenario. It is necessarily an insurance policy," says Denny Roy, a security expert at the East-West Center in Hawaii. "You don't see the full breadth of US policy toward China here."

-- Also appears in: Alaska Dispatch, MinnPost.com, AXcess News

(2012-01-07) This Defense Strategic Review is just the latest in a long line of commitments by American leaders to focus military might in this region, said Denny Roy, an expert on Asian military affairs.

Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, a congressionally established think tank in Honolulu. He said the shift of military focus to this region -- and the growth of China as a military superpower -- make Guam a crucial player in security plans.

The island is not only "close to the action," Roy said, but because it is also American soil, the military does not have to negotiate with an ally nation to operate a base.

"On one hand, it makes Guam even more important, not that it hasn't been important until now, because it is in some ways the ideally positioned as a U.S. military base," Roy said.

... At the same time, some strategists are starting to question the wisdom of placing too much military might in one place, Roy said.

"This is an age where you really have to start thinking about the wisdom of packing a large amount of military assets into one small area, because of the increased vulnerability to potential adversaries' missile technology," Roy said. " Guam is a pretty big hub already, and if the force restructuring from (Okinawa) took place, it would be even bigger. ... That may not be the model of this century."

(2011-12-31) "If you just do it top-down without consideration for social costs and tremendous risks, then you end up actually slowing down the process rather than speeding it up," says Dieter Ernst, a senior fellow at the East-West Center and former senior advisor to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

... "That speedy expansion almost by definition will raise quality problems," says Ernst. Another concern is the process by which students are siphoned into professional fields early on.

(2012-01-08) "In China the same elements are in place but it is further back on the curve compared to Korea and Japan," said Deane Neubauer, an expert on higher education in Asia at the University of Hawaii's East-West Centre.

... "Demographic slow-down is going to look different in China than Japan and South Korea because of the size of the higher education system in China," said Neubauer.

"China is just beginning to see surplus capacity in higher education growth," Neubauer told University World News. "Now you see many higher education institutions in China scrambling around to justify themselves.

"We are beginning to see private institutions that are outside the state system and outside the prosperous coastal cities trying to find a new role. Many of them had concentrated on teaching but now they may be moving into research."

... "Regional differences are very considerable in China," said Neubauer of the East-West Centre. "And the difference between city and countryside is still palpable and extreme, so that if you are looking at participation and quality, there is a wide variation."

(2012-01-11) But the switch could actually make Hawaii consumers of electricity, gas and other petroleum products more vulnerable, according to Fereidun Fesharaki, an international oil consultant and a senior fellow at the East-West Center.

... "If the refining business is doing well and margins are strong with demand growing, the refiners can withstand the loss of business from fuel oil to renewables,” Fesharaki told Civil Beat by email. “If on the other hand, the refining business is weak and margins look bad the loss of fuel oil business will tip the balance to closure.”