Digital Gems

"I don’t see any end in sight for money coming in."

Oxford Risk has launched a landmark study of human noise and inconsistencies in the advice process.

Owner-occupied homes in Black neighborhoods are undervalued by $48,000 per home on average, amounting to $156 billion in cumulative losses.

Listen now (22 min) | Estimating the size of the file drawer problem

Experiments that produce null results face a higher barrier to publication than those that yield statistically significant differences. Whether this is a problem depends on how many null but otherwise valid results might be trapped in the file drawer. Franco et al. use a Time-sharing Experiments in the Social Sciences archive of nearly 250 peer-reviewed proposals of social science experiments conducted on nationally representative samples. They find that only 10 out of 48 null results were published, whereas 56 out of 91 studies with strongly significant results made it into a journal. Science , this issue p. [1502][1] We studied publication bias in the social sciences by analyzing a known population of conducted studies—221 in total—in which there is a full accounting of what is published and unpublished. We leveraged Time-sharing Experiments in the Social Sciences (TESS), a National Science Foundation–sponsored program in which researchers propose survey-based experiments to be run on representative samples of American adults. Because TESS proposals undergo rigorous peer review, the studies in the sample all exceed a substantial quality threshold. Strong results are 40 percentage points more likely to be published than are null results and 60 percentage points more likely to be written up. We provide direct evidence of publication bias and identify the stage of research production at which publication bias occurs: Authors do not write up and submit null findings. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1255484

(Forthcoming Article) - Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or a two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings.

Wanting to know more

Key takeaways: At the beginning of the pandemic, we showed that not everybody can work from home, with the ability to telework differing enormously by race and ethnicity. As with the pre-pandemic period, there remains a large disparity between the share of Black and Hispanic workers who are able to telework during the pandemic, compared…

Struggling households shoulder greater burden of fees and interest, highlighting the need for innovative solutions that reduce economic pressures...

Global smartwatch shipments in Q1 2021 grew 35% YoY, according to Counterpoint Research’s recently published Global Smartwatch Model Tracker.

The beauty destination is the latest retailer to align with creative director Aurora James’s nonprofit, dedicated to expanding support for Black-owned brands.

In Q4 2020, 55% of products sold on Amazon were marketplace sellers' items. That's up from 53% in 2019 and 47% in 2015.

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   This graph shows CME framing futures through June 1st. Click on graph for lar...

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier...

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

The annual rate of inflation hit the European Central Bank’s target for the first time since late 2018, as energy prices surged in response to a strengthening recovery in the global economy.

Five states in the region accounted for 30% of U.S. job growth in manufacturing over three years, adding more than 100,000 jobs.

It helps to be familiar with the basics and the difference between a cash-out refinance and a Heloc.

DBEDT released its second quarter 2021 Statistical and Economic Report today. DBEDT revised its economic growth projection for 2021 to 3.5 percent, up from the 2.7 percent projected in February this year.

One example of the pitfalls of Pew’s “generations,” using environmental attitudes.

You get one, precious life. How do you decide the best way to spend your time?

We seek novelty, but not too much.

Tiny magnetometers have turned your phone into a compass, and new research shows they are sensitive to geomagnetic storms.

As conspiracy theories spread and misleading news stories are shared, educators are trying to battle misinformation with media literacy education.