Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist
The Homework Machine Episodes
GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come
(Google Search reportedly has reobust revenue model unaffected by searches for news. That remains separate from Gemini at the moment. Possibly also not to trigger more monopoly regulation. It has been possible to instruct Gemini to verify output using Search. But, like the research on crowd behavior, enough users walking at an angle instead of in lanes will look like chaos. Agents are probably going to have to have channels for intermodal engagement like the recently announced accord between OoenAi and Anthropic. The stats currently still look better than the average user performance without the tools. The economic strategy is a good point, though. One side is increasing cost due to the need for accuracy and computation while the other is trying to find the bottom of the valley which mathematicians have been doing since Newton.. This all depends upon the feeds for training and inference going in as well as the substrate as observed for posthuman cybernetics. The issue was whether humans were ever autonomous. Who or what is atop the pyramid? What are the chances of generative symbolism related to discovery? How to measure the health of hybrid intelligence? Diagrams and rules are left as an exercise. In the search for extratechnological...)
John Battelle's Search Blog The Tragedy of Generative AI
Why AI progress seems "stuck" | Jennifer Golbeck | TEDxMidAtlantic
How The Massive Power Draw Of Generative AI Is Overtaxing Our Grid
Generative AI enhances individual creativity but reduces the collective diversity of novel content
“Generative AI Degrades Online Communities”
Generative AI may be creating more work than it saves
Scientists warn of AI collapse
Gemini has a Diversity Problem
OpenAI's Video-Generating AI Is "Doomed to Failure," Says Meta's Top AI Scientist
Generative AI’s environmental costs are soaring — and mostly secret
The desperate race to save Generative AI
Opinion | A.I. Is the Future of Photography. Does That Mean Photography Is Dead?
Generative AI vs. AGI: The Cognitive Strengths and Weaknesses of Modern LLMs
Download PDF