#dWP-VW.THINKTANK I Q4/2025

Having moved in lockstep, America and Europe now have very different concerns

The downtrend in private-sector activity in the euro-area extended into a second month with the region’s two top economies weighing on output and little sign of a recovery to come.

Germany’s economy may end the year in stagnation after a shallow recession in the six months through September, according to the Bundesbank.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the newly expanded BRICS group showed that a “multipolar world” is being created, in a challenge to the US-dominated global order.

The recent retreat in consumer-price growth and the weakening of economic activity call for further interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank, according to Governing Council member Fabio Panetta.

The European Central Bank will most likely lower interest rates by another 25 basis points this year even as upside inflation risks linger, said Governing Council member Robert Holzmann.

Germany is trying to cultivate India as a source of trade and geopolitical support as its deteriorating relations with China cast a pall over the country’s economic future.

China should issue 2 trillion yuan ($281 billion) of special government bonds to help create a market stabilization fund, according to a top government-linked think tank.

Beijing’s latest blitz of economic policy measures is designed more to mitigate risks than to provide broad stimulus in the near term, according to Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said the US is likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth.

The European Central Bank has room to lower borrowing costs further as inflation approaches its target but must pay close attention to upside risks, according to Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi both praised expanding relations with Russia at bilateral meetings with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

The European Central Bank must be agile with further interest-rate cuts to avoid the risk of acting too slowly, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the euro could drop as much as 10% versus the dollar if Donald Trump and the Republicans win next month’s US elections and enact high global tariffs and generous domestic tax cuts.

An increasingly dire euro-area economy might exacerbate slowing consumer-price growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn.

The direction of European Central Bank borrowing costs is clear but the pace at which they’ll be lowered is still to be decided, according to President Christine Lagarde, who didn’t rule out bigger moves.

The number of layoffs at troubled Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB is now at around 1,200 following an announcement from the IF Metall union that more than 800 of its members will be let go from the firm’s key manufacturing site.

For the past several months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hammered home the idea that interest-rate decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data.

Central bankers are concerned that Donald Trump will unleash a new trade war if he returns to the White House, making their job much harder.

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for next year and warned of accelerating risks from wars to trade protectionism, even as it credited central banks for taming inflation without sending nations into recession.

Over 100 countries are straddling the geopolitical fault line. For many, it’s working

Tune in for the launch of the World Economic Outlook analytical chapters on October 16 and full report on October 22.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said he favors a slower pace of interest-rate reductions given uncertainty about how low the US central bank should ultimately cut rates.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari repeated that he favors reducing interest rates at a slower pace in the coming quarters.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said she expected the US central bank would continue cutting interest rates to guard against further weakening in the labor market.

Trotz eines leichten Rückgangs von rund einem Prozent bei den Übernachtungen haben sich Tirols Touristiker am Montag bei der Bilanz zur bisherigen Sommersaison zufrieden gezeigt. Es seien 20,3 Mio. Nächtigungen seien verzeichnet worden. Auch für den Winter gab man sich optimistisch.