#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting, caught between mounting concerns that the economy is slowing and inflation could remain stubbornly high.

The only thing Powell and Co. know for sure is that policy uncertainty is sky high.

President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, splitting with the US central bank as officials weigh the economic cost of his tariff push.

Österreich befindet sich in einer anhaltenden Rezession. Doch das von der Regierung geplante Volumen von 6,3 Mrd. Euro 2025 zur Budgetkonsolidierung überzeugt Fiskalratspräsident Christoph Badelt nicht zur Gänze. In der ORF-„Pressestunde“ am Sonntag warnte er vor der „demografischen Bombe“ hinsichtlich der alternden Gesellschaft, wenn in den nächsten Jahren nicht längerfristig geplant und gehandelt würde. Die größten Herausforderungen sieht Badelt in den Bereichen Pensionen, Pflege und Gesundheit.

Die neue Bundesregierung hält am Dienstagvormittag ihre erste Arbeitsklausur ab. Die Regierungsmitglieder von ÖVP, SPÖ und NEOS kommen dafür im Bundeskanzleramt zusammen, um einen Arbeitsplan für die nächsten Wochen zu erarbeiten, teilte das Bundeskanzleramt mit. Dabei wollen sich die drei Parteien dem Kampf gegen die Rezession verschreiben.

Trump’s tariffs look powerless to stop the incursion of inexpensive cars from China — and may speed it up.

US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have abruptly set the world onto a path of slower growth and higher inflation that could worsen notably if tensions escalate, the OECD said.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos sees services inflation moderating, according to a radio interview with Onda Cero.

The European Central Bank will lower borrowing costs two more times, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg who no longer expect interest rates to go below 2%.

China will take steps to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, as part of a plan that adds to recent pledges by the government to support demand in an economy threatened by Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Investors are the most bullish on Treasuries relative to stocks for at least three years, as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies threaten to end the era of US exceptionalism, the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey showed.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that an escalation of disputes over trade levies kicked off by US President Donald Trump may have a detrimental effect on the world economy.

China stands to gain from the ongoing trade wars between the US and its allies, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Will the president win back investors? Does he even want to?

What might derail it?

GDP, PPP (current international $) - Russian Federation from The World Bank: Data

Vast new holdings of grain, natural gas and oil suggest trouble ahead

The European Central Bank’s main gauge of future euro-zone pay growth continued to signal a sharp slowdown in 2025, underpinning hopes for a further retreat in inflation that should allow more interest-rate cuts.