#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and softer consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

US consumer spending jumped in March while a key measure of inflation decelerated, a welcome reprieve before tariffs are expected to broadly drive up prices.

The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to the country’s natural resources, offering a measure of assurance to officials in Kyiv who had feared that President Donald Trump would pull back his support in peace talks with Russia.

The European Central Bank should proceed carefully with additional cuts in borrowing costs due to the uncertain global environment, Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras said.

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level since February during the week that followed Easter.

Traders are scooping up wagers tied to the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision in September, moving on from bets on June when a quarter-point cut is seen as a foregone conclusion.

US employment growth probably decelerated in April and the jobless rate held steady, illustrating healthy yet moderating labor demand entering a period when trade policy risks chilling the hiring decisions.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said there’s a danger that inflation will dip below the 2% target due to the fallout from US trade levies, reiterating that this would be grounds to further lower interest rates.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that volatile financial markets must be watched closely amid the risk of declines spiraling out of control.

President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.

The European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging for growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he doesn’t see a need to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates as the medium-term impacts of recent economic shocks remain unclear.

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

In Österreich werden so wenige neue Wohnungen gebaut wie schon lange nicht mehr. Die Zahl der Baubewilligungen dafür sank 2024 deutlich und bewegt sich laut Daten der Statistik Austria von Donnerstag etwa auf dem Niveau vor 15 Jahren. Hält der Trend an, dürfte das die Preise auf dem freien Wohnungsmarkt weiter nach oben treiben.

US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on fears of the economic fallout from tariffs.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the fallout from the US tariff announcements will probably weigh on consumer prices in the euro zone rather than create a new bout of inflation.

Jerome Powell’s determination to ensure any jump in prices stemming from Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t spread through the economy has earned him the moniker “Mr. Too Late” from the president. For the Federal Reserve chair, that’s better than being Mr. Wrong.

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg now see a 45% of a downturn in the next year, up from 30% in March.

The European Central Bank should only lower interest rates into accommodative territory if the growth outlook deteriorates much further, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said US tariffs may be more disinflationary than inflationary for Europe even as more time is needed to fully assess the situation.

China’s Xi Jinping and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen were among the leaders on a private video call organized by the United Nations.

Global investors’ rotation out of American assets will go on for years if President Donald Trump persists with his trade policy, according to a strategist who timed the unwind of US exceptionalism almost perfectly.

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast with an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions elsewhere. The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths, while medium-term risks to growth are tilted to the downside. Renewed inflationary pressures could interrupt the monetary policy pivot, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. The policy mix should balance trade-offs and rebuild buffers.

The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth for this year and next, warning the outlook could deteriorate further as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war.

The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth for this year and next, warning the outlook could deteriorate further as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war.