#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists raised their recession probability assessment and brought forward the forecast timing of the next US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement.

Traders boosted their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year as the US administration’s tariffs ignite fears of a global recession, and markets increasingly are also betting on an emergency reduction.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggested that US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught may signify that the era of free-flowing global commerce is over.

In every corner of the financial markets, from stocks to bonds to commodities, investors are sending Donald Trump the same unmistakable message: The trade war he unleashed is threatening to set off a worldwide recession — and fast.

In every corner of the financial markets, from stocks to bonds to commodities, investors are sending Donald Trump the same unmistakable message: The trade war he unleashed is threatening to set off a worldwide recession — and fast.

China retaliated against new US tariffs with levies on all American imports, delivering on a promise to strike back after President Donald Trump imposed duties and escalating a trade fight.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic impact of new tariffs is likely to be significantly larger than expected, and the central bank must make sure that doesn’t lead to a growing inflation problem.

Expectations for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are rising as investors and analysts assessing the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariffs conclude that the outcome for inflation will be more benign while growth will suffer.

US job growth beat forecasts in March and the unemployment rate edged up, pointing to a healthy labor market before the global economy gets hit by widespread tariffs.

US service providers expanded in March at the slowest pace in nine months as orders growth cooled and a measure of employment tumbled to the lowest since 2023.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said interest rates remain well positioned to handle competing risks despite a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook amid substantial changes to US policies on trade, immigration and regulation.

US President Donald Trump’s array of tariffs threatens the global economy and calls into question the European Central Bank’s achievements in fighting inflation, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.

Donald Trump’s latest tariff hikes threaten to inflict a bigger hit on China’s economy than it suffered during his first trade war.

Spitzenvertreter von Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden haben am Mittwoch im Bundeskanzleramt ein Gipfelgespräch abgehalten, um über die Sanierung des aus dem Ruder gelaufenen Budgets zu beraten. Nach dem Termin äußerte man sich einhellig: Bundeskanzler Christian Stocker (ÖVP) sprach nach dem Treffen von einem Stufenplan, um auch langfristig den Staatshaushalt in den Griff zu bekommen. Erstes Ziel sei es, das Defizit auf drei Prozent und damit das Maastricht-Ziel zu drücken.

US job openings fell in February while layoffs remained subdued, adding to evidence of a labor market that’s only gradually cooling.

Das chinesische Militär will es als »ernste Warnung« an Taiwan verstanden wissen: Streitkräfte nähern sich der Insel für eine Übung aus der Luft und vom Wasser. Taiwan hat bereits reagiert.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it’s time to talk about joint debt again in the euro area as policymakers see an opportunity to bolster the currency’s role in the global economy.

China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could give Beijing more leverage for potential trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said President Donald Trump’s tariffs could raise both inflation and unemployment, creating a big challenge for the central bank.

Wie viel haben die Österreicherinnen und Österreicher in den letzten Jahren im Durchschnitt verdient, und wie viel davon konnten sie sich auf die Seite legen? Antworten auf diese beiden Fragen geben Zahlen der Statistik Austria vom Montag. Die Verdienststrukturerhebung bis 2022 zeichnet die Entwicklung der Löhne und Gehälter nach Branchen, Geschlecht und Region nach. Auffallend ist aktuell ein deutlicher Trend zum Sparen und zur Zurückhaltung beim Konsum.

German inflation slowed more than anticipated in March, nearing the European Central Bank’s 2% target as officials ponder whether to lower interest rates again at their next meeting or pause.

China is willing to buy more Indian products to balance trade, Beijing’s Ambassador Xu Feihong said just ahead of a US tariff announcement expected to hit the south Asian neighbors.

Euro-area inflation eased further toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target as officials weigh whether or not to continue lowering interest rates.

Several European Central Bank officials are still wavering on whether to cut interest rates next month, according to people familiar with the matter, suggesting the meeting remains far more open than investors are betting.

China’s residential sales fell again in March, suggesting the recovery in the property sector remains frail.

Mehr als deutlich hat Österreich im vergangenen Jahr die Maastricht-Grenze von drei Prozent des Budgetdefizits überschritten. Am Montag meldete die Statistik Austria einen Anstieg des gesamtstaatlichen Defizits auf 4,7 Prozent des BIP. Der Schuldenstand erhöhte sich damit um 22,6 Milliarden auf mehr als 394 Milliarden Euro. 2023 lag das Defizit noch bei 12,4 Milliarden Euro bzw. 2,6 Prozent des BIP. Für WIFO-Chef Gabriel Felbermayr sind diese Zahlen eine „enorme Negativüberraschung“.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists now forecast both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will cut interest rates three times this year as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on economic growth.