#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

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PBOC Chief Pan Signals Support for China's Economy in 2025 (03.12.2024)
PBOC Chief Pan Signals Support for China's Economy in 2025 (03.12.2024)
China’s central bank governor reaffirmed plans for a supportive monetary policy to promote growth next year, as the economy faces fresh challenges from a looming trade war with the US during Donald Trump’s second term.
PBOC Chief Pan Signals Support for China's Economy in 2025 (03.12.2024)
Nächster Rückschlag: UNO-Klimakonferenzen unter Zugzwang (03.12.2024)
Nächster Rückschlag: UNO-Klimakonferenzen unter Zugzwang (03.12.2024)
Zu Beginn der Woche hat es bei einer UNO-Konferenz zu Umwelt und Klima erneut einen Rückschlag gegeben – wieder einmal aufgrund einer Blockade von Saudi-Arabien. Die Konferenzen geraten zunehmend unter Zugzwang. Doch ob die nächste, die ausgerechnet in Riad stattfindet, einen Erfolg bringen kann, bleibt fraglich, nicht zuletzt das Einstimmigkeitsprinzip hat sich bisher als unüberwindliche Hürde erwiesen.
Nächster Rückschlag: UNO-Klimakonferenzen unter Zugzwang (03.12.2024)
KIM-Verordnung: Strenge Wohnkreditregeln laufen aus (02.12.2024)
KIM-Verordnung: Strenge Wohnkreditregeln laufen aus (02.12.2024)
Die KIM-VO (Kreditinstitute-Immobilienfinanzierungsmaßnahmen-Verordnung), die strenge Regeln für die Vergabe von Wohnkrediten vorgegeben hat, wird im kommenden Jahr auslaufen. Auf Basis der aktuellen Situation sieht das Finanzmarktstabilitätsgremium (FMSG) bei der Wohnkreditvergabe keine systemischen Risiken für den Bankensektor.
KIM-Verordnung: Strenge Wohnkreditregeln laufen aus (02.12.2024)
384.000 ohne Job: Krise in Industrie belastet Arbeitsmarkt (02.12.2024)
384.000 ohne Job: Krise in Industrie belastet Arbeitsmarkt (02.12.2024)
Die weltweite Konjunkturflaute und die schwache Nachfrage setzen der Industrie und dem Arbeitsmarkt weiter zu. Ende November waren rund 384.000 Personen beim Arbeitsmarktservice (AMS) arbeitslos oder in Schulung gemeldet, im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat entspricht das einem Plus von gut 31.400 Personen bzw. einem Zuwachs von 8,9 Prozent.
384.000 ohne Job: Krise in Industrie belastet Arbeitsmarkt (02.12.2024)
US Stock Market Expectations I BLOOMBERG I 02.12.2024
US Stock Market Expectations I BLOOMBERG I 02.12.2024

US Data Dump “Animal spirits” have engulfed the markets since the election of Trump and the Republican sweep in US Congress, fueled by the prospect of business-friendly deregulation and low taxes.

But an onslaught of data last week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US provided a clear-eyed look at where the economy actually stands right now. Here are some takeaways:

1) Consumer spending remains solid but recent trends in real disposable income point to a slowdown after what Stephen Stanley at Santander US Capital Markets called “the extraordinary run in 2023 and so far in 2024.” 2) The outlook does look good for high-income households, however: the surge in equities and the likelihood that temporary tax cuts enacted under Trump will be extended means high earners will probably continue to splurge — and keep driving economic growth. 3) The equities rally in the run-up to the presidential election (aka Trump trade) added 0.24 percentage points to the year-over-year growth of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation last month. The culprit is a financial services category in the core personal consumption expenditures price index that mirrors markets moves and contributed in large part to the October acceleration in the index. 4) A spike in homes sales at the end of the summer and early in the fall was probably short-lived. A leading indicator of pending purchases rose in October to the highest since March, boding well for November. But with borrowing costs trending higher again and weak mortgage applications, “we think that home sales will drop back to rock-bottom levels around the turn of the year,” Pantheon Macro economists wrote in a note. 5) Early reports from Black Friday suggested that crowds were smaller than expected at some at some high-profile retail stores such as Macy’s flagship in New York City. But online sales were strong, underscoring a fundamental lesson of US economics: Never underestimate the American consumer.

US Stock Market Expectations I BLOOMBERG I 02.12.2024
Trump Trade War: Explaining Tariff Scenarios (01.12.2024)
Trump Trade War: Explaining Tariff Scenarios (01.12.2024)
Trump’s tariffs could go in many different directions. Understanding the strategy from his first term, and the priorities of his new team, reveals a potential path ahead.
Trump Trade War: Explaining Tariff Scenarios (01.12.2024)
Iran Braces for Trump Reset With Economy Buckling From Sanctions (24.11.2024)
Iran Braces for Trump Reset With Economy Buckling From Sanctions (24.11.2024)
When Donald Trump first entered the White House in 2017, Cyrus Razzaghi was running an Iranian business consultancy, advising US, Japanese and European companies about how to grab opportunities in a market emerging from years of economic isolation.
Iran Braces for Trump Reset With Economy Buckling From Sanctions (24.11.2024)
China Air Cargo Flights Soar as Trump Return, Tariffs Loom (29.11.2024)
China Air Cargo Flights Soar as Trump Return, Tariffs Loom (29.11.2024)
The race to secure goods from China before tariffs are imposed has taken off, with international cargo flights out of the Asian nation increasing to new records in the weeks since Donald Trump won the US election.
China Air Cargo Flights Soar as Trump Return, Tariffs Loom (29.11.2024)