#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

The US election next month will be a clash of visions that reverberates through the global economy for years to come.

China’s central bank kept its one-year policy rate unchanged, after slashing funding costs by the most on record a month ago, suggesting authorities are cautiously pacing monetary stimulus to support the economy.

President Xi Jinping’s boldest economic stimulus since the pandemic failed to impress global luminaries gathered in Washington this week, who called for more measures to rebalance China’s growth and greater clarity over Beijing’s policy plans.

The European Central Bank mustn’t keep interest rates too high for too long, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, who said weakness in the euro-zone economy is now his “single biggest concern.”

The European Central Bank shouldn’t hurry too much to lower borrowing costs but remain flexible, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.

The European Central Bank should reserve big interest-rate cuts for exceptional circumstances, according to Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf, who said he prefers a “cautious” approach to ensure that inflation’s retreat to 2% stays on track.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said it’s far too early to start considering a half-point interest-rate reduction in December.

China is pressuring its automakers to pause expansion in the European Union due to the escalating trade conflict over electric vehicles, people familiar with the matter said.

Views among European Central Bank officials about where to take monetary policy are starting to diverge as the institution’s 2% inflation target moves within close reach.

Having moved in lockstep, America and Europe now have very different concerns

The downtrend in private-sector activity in the euro-area extended into a second month with the region’s two top economies weighing on output and little sign of a recovery to come.

Germany’s economy may end the year in stagnation after a shallow recession in the six months through September, according to the Bundesbank.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the newly expanded BRICS group showed that a “multipolar world” is being created, in a challenge to the US-dominated global order.

The recent retreat in consumer-price growth and the weakening of economic activity call for further interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank, according to Governing Council member Fabio Panetta.

The European Central Bank will most likely lower interest rates by another 25 basis points this year even as upside inflation risks linger, said Governing Council member Robert Holzmann.

Germany is trying to cultivate India as a source of trade and geopolitical support as its deteriorating relations with China cast a pall over the country’s economic future.

China should issue 2 trillion yuan ($281 billion) of special government bonds to help create a market stabilization fund, according to a top government-linked think tank.

Beijing’s latest blitz of economic policy measures is designed more to mitigate risks than to provide broad stimulus in the near term, according to Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said the US is likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth.

The European Central Bank has room to lower borrowing costs further as inflation approaches its target but must pay close attention to upside risks, according to Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi both praised expanding relations with Russia at bilateral meetings with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

The European Central Bank must be agile with further interest-rate cuts to avoid the risk of acting too slowly, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the euro could drop as much as 10% versus the dollar if Donald Trump and the Republicans win next month’s US elections and enact high global tariffs and generous domestic tax cuts.

An increasingly dire euro-area economy might exacerbate slowing consumer-price growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn.

The direction of European Central Bank borrowing costs is clear but the pace at which they’ll be lowered is still to be decided, according to President Christine Lagarde, who didn’t rule out bigger moves.

The number of layoffs at troubled Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB is now at around 1,200 following an announcement from the IF Metall union that more than 800 of its members will be let go from the firm’s key manufacturing site.

For the past several months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hammered home the idea that interest-rate decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data.