#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

The outlook for inflation and growth in the US would be roughly the same whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election, though economists in a Bloomberg survey give the vice president the edge on the economy overall.

China may raise 6 trillion yuan ($846 billion) from ultra-long special government bonds over three years as part of its efforts to boost the sputtering economy, Chinese media outlet Caixin reported.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said it appears likely that “further modest reductions” in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate will be appropriate in coming quarters.

The consumers powering US economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder, and likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists.

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global gross domestic product, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said recent economic data signals policymakers can approach subsequent interest-rate reductions with less urgency than they applied at their gathering last month.

China has begun enforcing a long-overlooked tax on overseas investment gains by the country’s ultra-rich, according to people familiar with the matter.

China’s armed forces held drills off Taiwan that they said were intended as a warning to halt “separatist acts” — a move coming just after the archipelago’s president vowed to stand up to challenges from Beijing.

Chinese stocks overcame a bout of early volatility to post their biggest gain in a week on Monday, suggesting that investors are hopeful the government will deliver on its promise of more fiscal support.

China promised new measures to support the property sector and hinted at greater government borrowing to shore up the economy, as authorities seek to put a floor under the country’s growth slowdown.

S&P Global Ratings predicts an increase in foreign-currency debt defaults among sovereign issuers over the next decade, driven by significantly higher debt levels and increased borrowing costs on hard currency obligations.

Cracks are finally appearing in the euro zone’s labor market after years of unexpected resilience — spurring the European Central Bank to lower interest rates more speedily.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded its forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025 after Beijing unveiled a series of measures to shore up growth, including plans for greater public spending announced over the weekend.

Germany is suffering a mild recession and output across the whole of 2024 will be flat, according to a Bloomberg survey — underscoring the malaise in Europe’s largest economy.

Germany is suffering a mild recession and output across the whole of 2024 will be flat, according to a Bloomberg survey — underscoring the malaise in Europe’s largest economy.

The economic challenges that are dragging down the European economy have been building up for years but officials have been slow to catch on.

China’s highly anticipated Finance Ministry briefing on Saturday lacked the firepower that equity investors had hoped for, indicating that the volatility that’s gripped the market following a world-beating rally will likely extend.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang vowed to “listen to the voice of the market” when formulating economic policies, in a rare nod to the concerns of the private sector and investors as Beijing seeks to shore up confidence and stabilize growth.

The European Union’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has moved the focus to how and when Beijing will retaliate for the escalation in its biggest trade dispute with the bloc in years.

Russia is proposing changes to cross-border payments conducted among BRICS countries aimed at circumventing the global financial system, as the heavily penalized country seeks to sanctions-proof its own economy.

Investors and analysts are expecting China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus as Beijing seeks to shore up the world’s second-biggest economy and boost confidence.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he doesn’t see convincing evidence that the economy is overheating despite a gangbusters September jobs report.

The European Central Bank will speed up interest-rate cuts over the months ahead to bolster the economy — taking borrowing costs to levels that no longer restrict demand by the end of 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey.