#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

Donald Trump’s combative trade policies have tipped the world economy into a downturn, with the US among the hardest hit, the OECD said.

Traders are ramping up bets that hedge against dramatic shifts in the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path as questions on the economic impact of Trump’s administration evolving policies persist.

Euro-area inflation eased more than expected, dipping below the European Central Bank’s 2% target and supporting the case for interest rates to be lowered further.

Die EU-Kommission dürfte am Mittwoch die Einleitung eines Defizitverfahrens gegen Österreich empfehlen. Tut sie das, müssen noch die Wirtschafts- und Finanzministerinnen und -minister zustimmen. Finanzminister Markus Marterbauer (SPÖ) bekräftigte bereits, keine Angst davor zu haben. Die Konsolidierung des Budgets wird jedenfalls nicht leicht, wie Fachleute am Dienstag sagten.

Donald Trump is putting an untested system under almighty strain

Im Juli will die EU-Kommission das rechtlich bindende Klimaziel für 2040 bekanntgeben. Es sieht vor, Treibhausgasemissionen um mindestens 90 Prozent zu senken. Während einige EU-Staaten hierbei mehr „Flexibilität“ fordern, warnte der EU-Klimabeirat am Montag eindrücklich vor einer Aufweichung. EU-Klimakommissar Wopke Hoekstra verwies unterdessen im Gespräch mit der ZIB2 auf „Pragmatismus“.

China’s manufacturing sector had its worst slump since September 2022, according to a private survey, as higher tariffs took a toll on smaller exporters despite a truce in the trade war with the US.

Die Mieten sind vor allem in den Großstädten in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen. Vizekanzler Andreas Babler (SPÖ) will die „Stopptaste“ drücken, wie er am Montag sagte. Er kündigte in seiner Funktion als Wohnungsminister eine Mietpreisbremse für die beiden kommenden Jahre und eine Verlängerung der Mindestbefristung an. Die Immobilienwirtschaft vermisst Antworten auf die „großen Fragen“.

The dollar will tumble to levels last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic by the middle of next year, hit by interest rate cuts and slowing growth, according to predictions by Morgan Stanley.

Ende Mai waren 375.347 Personen ohne Arbeitsplatz. 296.140 davon waren arbeitslos und 79.207 in Schulungsmaßnahmen beim Arbeitsmarktservice (AMS) gemeldet. Im Vergleich zum April stieg die Zahl um 6,9 Prozent bzw. 24.196 Personen. Die Arbeitslosenrate erhöhte sich um 0,5 Prozentpunkte auf 6,9 Prozent.

The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth as downside risks intensify. While policy shifts unfold and uncertainties reach new highs, policies need to be calibrated to rebalance growth-inflation trade-offs, rebuild buffers, and reinvigorate medium-term growth, thereby reducing both internal and external imbalances. Policies that promote healthy aging, bridge gender disparities, and enhance the alignment of migrants’ skills with local labor market demands can play a crucial role in countering slow economic growth and fiscal pressures, especially when coupled with infrastructure investment.

Chinese automakers captured the biggest share of Europe’s electric-vehicle market in nine months, regaining ground lost after the European Union imposed tariffs last year.

US consumers hit the brakes in April while goods imports plummeted by a record as companies adjusted to higher tariffs.

German inflation slowed less than expected, highlighting lingering risks as the European Central Bank prepares to lower interest rates again.

The European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more, according to a Bloomberg survey, but respondents warned it shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.

President Donald Trump pushed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates at their first in-person meeting since the president’s inauguration, the White House said.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said more reductions in borrowing costs could be on the way, with little sign at present of upward pressure on consumer prices.

American trade policy is in chaos

The regulatory pendulum swings violently

The country’s sprawling industrial policy is beyond mere human comprehension

It is time to think beyond regional success, says Yannis Stournaras

Analysing it is more important than ever. Mitigating it is a nightmare

President Donald Trump’s erratic policies offer a “prime opportunity” to strengthen the euro’s international role and allow the currency bloc to enjoy more of the privileges so far reserved for the US, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said.

President Xi Jinping’s government is considering a new version of its master plan to boost production of high-end technological goods, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling its intention to keep a firm grip on manufacturing as President Donald Trump looks to bring more factories back to the US.

France’s inflation rate dropped further below the European Central Bank’s 2% target, reaching a more than four-year low and adding to arguments that borrowing costs can be cut further.

America will pay the price most of all