EU to Impose Tariffs Up to 45% on Chinese Electric Vehicles (04.10.2024)
The European Union voted on Friday to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China in a move set to increase trade tensions with Beijing.
#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025
JPMAM_Web-Konferenz_Kapitalmarktausblick_Q4-2024.pdf
JP Morgan I Q4 Guide to the markets I Notizen M.E. STUBENBÖCK
INTRO
- Globale Zinswende
- USA Rezession möglich, aber Soft-Landing überwiegt aktuell
- EU hat noch gar nicht abgehoben
- China mit fiskaler und monetärer Unterstützung mit Ende Q3/2024 - USA
- US Arbeitsmarkt Abkühlung - Sams Rule ausgelöst - Hat FED bewogen, mehr zu senken
- Entwarnung - Mehr Offene Stellen als Erwerbstätige
- Q3/24 - 2,5% Wachstum FED
- Konsum wird unterstützt - Lohnwachstum hoch + Ersparnisse nicht so schnell aufgebraucht (Haushalte mit besserer Kondition als geglaubt EUROPA
- Einkaufsmanager Index - Dienstleistung im Plus / Verarbeitendes Gewerbe im Minus - Zweiteilung der Wirtschaft
- Energiekostenproblematik (Vergleich USA/EU) + CO2 Preis (Vergleich China/EU) - Trend zur Verlagerung der Produktion außerhalb Europas —
- Expansive Budgetdefizit in USA
- Unterschiedliches Wachstum in Europa - vor allem im Süden aufgrund EU Förderungen - Wirkung auf Staatsanleihen
- Verschuldungspolitik - Auswirkung 1) Renditen steigen, 2) Gold als Sicherer Hafen - da Frage wer kauft diese ganzen Staatsanleihen - vielleicht müssen Nationalbanken wieder Liquidität aufbauen (Anleihenkaufpakete - aktuelle Reduktion, aber vielleicht noch nicht vorbei)—> Gold richt diesen Braten bzw. Verwässerung - generell reale Veranlagung als Strategie INFLATION
- Nahost als möglich neuer Inflationsfaktor - nicht Nachfrageseitig, sondern nur Energiesektor
- Zinsentwicklungen International
Web-Konferenz Q4 2024: Kapitalmarktausblick
JPMORGAN I Guide to the markets_Q4/2024
The EU votes on Chinese EV tariffs (04.10.2024)
Catch up: Israel moves deeper into Lebanon; oil prices surge
Mortgage Rates Near 6% Are Enough to Start Up a Refinancing Wave (03.10.2024)
Jim Horgan has had a rough couple of years. As elevated interest rates created the worst housing market for sales in nearly three decades, the suburban Boston mortgage branch manager had seen his team of loan officers dwindle from eight to one, and getting customers was a slog.
Can China’s Stimulus Package Help Save Its Economy, Property Markets? (03.10.2024)
China’s leaders are aiming for economic growth of around 5% this year, an ambitous goal given sluggish consumer spending, a global backlash against Chinese goods and a still shaky property market. In September, with the target sliding out of reach, Beijing unleashed a package of stimulus measures including interest rate cuts to turn things around. Success is not assured. Persistent deflationary pressures have also sparked a discussion about whether the world’s second-biggest economy is headed fo
Geschäftsschwund: Stationärer Handel baut weiter ab (03.10.2024)
Seit zehn Jahren gehen die Verkaufsflächen im Einzelhandel zurück. In den vergangenen beiden Jahren habe sich das beschleunigt, so der Marktforscher RegioData. Besonders betroffen seien die Bereiche Schuhe, Elektro, Möbel und Bekleidung. „Unternehmen expandieren weniger, verkleinern teilweise ihre Flächen, und die in letzter Zeit vermehrt aufgetretenen Insolvenzen im Einzelhandel führen zusätzlich zur Schließung von Geschäften“, heißt es in einem am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Bericht. Der Ausblick sei verhalten.
AI May Not Up to the Hype, MIT Economist Daron Acemoglu Warns (02.10.2024)
Daron Acemoglu wants to make clear right away that he has nothing against artificial intelligence. He gets the potential. “I’m not an AI pessimist,” he declares seconds into an interview.
The house-price supercycle is just getting going (03.10.2024)
Why property prices could keep rising for years
The first relates to demography.
finds that a one-percentage-point rise in the immigration rate boosts average house prices by 3.3%.
The second factor relates to cities.
We calculate that the share of the rich world’s overall employment taking place in capital cities has grown in recent years
All this raises competition for living space in compact urban centres, where the supply of housing is already constrained.
The city’s triumph compounds the effects of the third factor: infrastructure.
Many governments find it nearly impossible to build new transport networks to lighten the load.
The supply problem remains most acute in cities, where regulations are strictest.
Chinese Homebuyers Scout Showrooms as Top Cities Eased Housing Rules (02.10.2024)
At 11:12 p.m. in Shenzhen on Sunday, China’s least affordable city eased rules for homebuyers. Less than an hour later, the first batch of prospective customers showed up at a sales center for a suburban project by local developer Excellence Group.
ECB Momentum for an October Rate Cut Is Looking Unstoppable (02.10.2024)
An interest-rate cut that European Central Bank officials deemed unlikely just three weeks ago now seems a near certainty when they next set borrowing costs on Oct. 17.
US Health-Care Job Hiring Slows After Post-Pandemic Boost (02.10.2024)
Health care has been a key driver of post-pandemic employment growth in the US, accounting for about one in five new jobs across the country since 2021. Now a hiring slowdown in that sector is making the broader labor market look increasingly shaky.
FMA Lichtenstein I Volkswirtschaftsmonitor Q3/2024
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Says Market Is Wrong to Bet on So Many Fed Cuts (01.10.2024)
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said the market is pricing too many interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve given the US economy continues to grow.
Arbeitslosigkeit im September gestiegen: 355.000 ohne Job (01.10.2024)
Schnellschätzung: 1,8 Prozent Inflation im September (01.10.2024)
Central Bank Rate Cuts: Fed Drives Global Push Despite Questions Over 2025 (01.10.2024)
With the last traces of the global inflation shock fading, the shift toward lower borrowing costs is about to maintain momentum as economies tread toward a new year fraught with unknowns.
Powell Says Fed Will Lower Rates 'Over Time', Emphasizes Economy Is Solid (30.09.2024)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will lower interest rates “over time,” while again emphasizing that the overall US economy remains on solid footing.
Euro-Zone Inflation Drops Below 2%, Backing ECB Cut Bets (01.10.2024)
Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since 2021 — backing investor bets that interest rates may be lowered more quickly than previously anticipated.
ECB’s Rehn Says Slowing Inflation Firms Case for October Cut (01.10.2024)
Easing inflation pressures and a deteriorating euro-zone economy support the case for an interest-rate cut this month, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said.
Christine Lagarde Says ECB Is Getting More Confident of Taming Inflation (30.09.2024)
Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank is becoming more optimistic that it will be able to get inflation under control, and will reflect on that at its October interest-rate decision.
Biden moving forward with plan to cement asylum restrictions at U.S.-Mexico border (26.09.2024)
The Biden administration is planning to issue a regulation to cement the sweeping asylum restrictions it enacted at the southern border over the summer.
Fed hat es laut Powell nicht eilig, wird allmählich lockern (01.10.2024)
US-Notenbankchef Jerome Powell sieht die amerikanische Wirtschaft noch immer auf einem soliden Fundament und hat erklärt, die Fed werde die Leitzinsen “im Laufe der Zeit” weiter herabsetzen.
German Inflation Slows Below 2% as Bets on Faster ECB Cuts Rise (30.09.2024)
German inflation eased below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since February 2021 — supporting the case for another cut in interest rates in less than three weeks.
Hong Kong Distressed Sellers Flood Market With Assets at Fire Sale Prices (30.09.2024)
A funding squeeze is putting the city’s businesses under pressure amid China’s slowdown and weak consumer demand.
German Inflation Slows Below 2% as Bets on Faster ECB Cuts Rise (30.09.2024)
German inflation eased below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since February 2021 — supporting the case for another cut in interest rates in less than three weeks.
Volvo Leads 50 Firms Urging EU to Stick to Combustion-Engine Ban (30.09.2024)
Volvo Car AB and dozens of industrial manufacturers urged Brussels to stick to a plan to halt sales of new combustion-engine cars starting 2035. But Europe’s biggest automakers are keeping quiet.
Chinese Stocks Enter Bull Market After Biggest Surge Since 2008 (30.09.2024)
Chinese stocks extended one of their most remarkable turnarounds in history, soaring for a ninth straight day as government stimulus entices investors back to one of the most beaten-down markets worldwide.
Poor euro zone data flow keeps adding to case for ECB rate cut (29.09.2024)
Inflation has eased more than expected in two of the euro zone's biggest economies and the German jobs market has continued to cool this month, adding to an already substantial case for the European Central Bank to cut borrowing costs further next month.