#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

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Draghi Says EU in Danger Without Massive Spending and Joint Debt (09.09.2024)
Draghi Says EU in Danger Without Massive Spending and Joint Debt (09.09.2024)
Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year to make the bloc more competitive and to commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to compete with China and the US.
“For the first time since the Cold War we must genuinely fear for our self-preservation,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels Monday.
He warned that EU economic growth was “persistently slower” than in the US, calling into question the bloc’s ability to digitalize and decarbonize the economy quickly enough to be able to rival its competitors to the east and west.
Draghi Says EU in Danger Without Massive Spending and Joint Debt (09.09.2024)
Newest Jobs Data Fail to Resolve Fed Debate Over September Cut (07.09.2024)
Newest Jobs Data Fail to Resolve Fed Debate Over September Cut (07.09.2024)
The latest snapshot of the US labor market left open the possibility the Federal Reserve will go big as it begins cutting interest rates, though two key officials on Friday stopped short of endorsing such a move at their meeting this month.
Newest Jobs Data Fail to Resolve Fed Debate Over September Cut (07.09.2024)
Yield Curve: What Its Shape Says About US Economy, Recession Risk (08.09.2024)
Yield Curve: What Its Shape Says About US Economy, Recession Risk (08.09.2024)
The US Treasury yield curve has a long history of raising alarms among investors and economists. That’s mostly because when it’s flipped upside down from its usual upward slope in what’s called an inversion, traders start getting anxious about the health of the economy. Almost every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inverted curve, except recently when it inverted in 2022. When the curve disinverts, or returns to its normal shape, as it did on Sept. 4, some say that could signal a dow
Yield Curve: What Its Shape Says About US Economy, Recession Risk (08.09.2024)
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Stagnation statt Wachstum: Das ifo-Institut hat seine Konjunkturprognose gesenkt, auch andere Institute rechnen für 2024 nicht mehr mit einem Wachstum. Wie schlecht geht es der Wirtschaft wirklich? Von L. Hiltscher.
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse
Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year — still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million. A Trump administration would likely prompt a sharper slowdown, to 1.25 million or — if Republicans take Congress and boost resources for enforcement — 750,000 a year.
30,000 a month higher than if Republicans sweep, Goldman’s economists wrote.
Trump’s likely tariff hikes on China, the EU and Mexico would lead to an inflationary bump, with a peak impact of 30 to 40 basis points on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, the bank’s economists wrote. An additional 10% universal tariff, which the GOP candidate has floated, would have a bigger impact though it would take longer.
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)
The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)

Hier sind die Hauptprobleme der chinesischen Wirtschaft in Punkten zusammengefasst:

  • Vertrauenskrise: Es herrscht ein tiefes Misstrauen gegenüber den offiziellen Daten und Statistiken, was die Entscheidungsfindung sowohl im öffentlichen als auch im privaten Sektor beeinträchtigt.

  • Manipulation von Daten: Die Regierung wird beschuldigt, wirtschaftliche Daten zu manipulieren und sensible Informationen zu unterdrücken, was zu einem verzerrten Bild der wirtschaftlichen Realität führt.

  • Rückkehr zu restriktiver Informationspolitik: Die zunehmende Zensur und Kontrolle über Informationen erinnern an die Praktiken der Sowjetunion, was die Effizienz der wirtschaftlichen Entscheidungsfindung beeinträchtigt.

  • Einschränkung individueller Freiheiten: Die repressiven Maßnahmen der Regierung führen zu einem Rückgang der individuellen Freiheiten, was die Innovationskraft und das wirtschaftliche Wachstum hemmt.

  • Schwierigkeiten bei der Kapitalallokation: Durch die schwächeren Preissignale wird die Allokation von Kapital schwieriger, was in einer Zeit, in der China auf neue Industrien angewiesen ist, problematisch ist.

Diese Punkte verdeutlichen die komplexen Herausforderungen, vor denen die chinesische Wirtschaft steht.

The real problem with China’s economy (05.09.2024)
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
Decisions at the European Central Bank are set to get a lot more contentious once interest rates fall to about 3% and clashes emerge over what’s still needed to keep inflation in check, according to people familiar with the matter.
ECB Cuts Set to Become Trickier Once Key Rate Falls to Near 3% (03.09.2024)
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)
Rate options traders stepped up wagers that the Federal Reserve will kick off its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut this month, reflecting the increasing speculation that policymakers will act aggressively to keep the economy from sputtering.
Rate Options Show Rising Bets on a Half-Point Fed Cut This Month (04.09.2024)