#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025

Traders are scooping up wagers tied to the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision in September, moving on from bets on June when a quarter-point cut is seen as a foregone conclusion.

US employment growth probably decelerated in April and the jobless rate held steady, illustrating healthy yet moderating labor demand entering a period when trade policy risks chilling the hiring decisions.

A truce is still possible, but no one wants to be first to pick up the phone

Trade between China and America is already sinking

After years of resilience, Russia’s economy is slowing down

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said there’s a danger that inflation will dip below the 2% target due to the fallout from US trade levies, reiterating that this would be grounds to further lower interest rates.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that volatile financial markets must be watched closely amid the risk of declines spiraling out of control.

He has already done lasting harm to America

President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.

The European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging for growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he doesn’t see a need to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates as the medium-term impacts of recent economic shocks remain unclear.

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.

In Österreich werden so wenige neue Wohnungen gebaut wie schon lange nicht mehr. Die Zahl der Baubewilligungen dafür sank 2024 deutlich und bewegt sich laut Daten der Statistik Austria von Donnerstag etwa auf dem Niveau vor 15 Jahren. Hält der Trend an, dürfte das die Preise auf dem freien Wohnungsmarkt weiter nach oben treiben.

US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on fears of the economic fallout from tariffs.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the fallout from the US tariff announcements will probably weigh on consumer prices in the euro zone rather than create a new bout of inflation.

Jerome Powell’s determination to ensure any jump in prices stemming from Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t spread through the economy has earned him the moniker “Mr. Too Late” from the president. For the Federal Reserve chair, that’s better than being Mr. Wrong.

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.

Russia’s oil producers have been drilling wells at a pace not seen in at least five years as the nation readies for both a loosening of OPEC+ output limits and the possibility of relief from some international sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.

Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg now see a 45% of a downturn in the next year, up from 30% in March.

The European Central Bank should only lower interest rates into accommodative territory if the growth outlook deteriorates much further, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said US tariffs may be more disinflationary than inflationary for Europe even as more time is needed to fully assess the situation.

Jerome Powell wins a reprieve. But expect more showdowns between the White House and the Fed

Recent market turbulence has exposed uncomfortable weaknesses

China’s Xi Jinping and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen were among the leaders on a private video call organized by the United Nations.

Global investors’ rotation out of American assets will go on for years if President Donald Trump persists with his trade policy, according to a strategist who timed the unwind of US exceptionalism almost perfectly.

Elon Musk is the face of DOGE, but Russell Vought is the brains. He’s been planning such a crusade since well before Project 2025.