No Fed Cuts Until September Despite Rising Risks, Economists Say (02.05.2025)
Economists see a darkening outlook for the US economy but are sticking by projections for two interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
#dieWIRTSCHAFTSPRAXIS-VW.THINKTANK I STATUS.QUO Q2/2025
praesentation-neubaubericht-2025.pdf
A superpower crunch over Taiwan is coming (01.05.2025)
Folgend werden 3 aktuelle Brennpunkte/Faktoren, welche eine Übernahme von Taiwan durch China begünstigen, dargelegt:
- Unter Trump verliert Amerika seine Abschreckungskraft: Die durch Handelskrieg und Protektionismus geschwächte US-Abschreckung macht China mutiger, Taiwan zu versuchen, zu erobern.
- Chinas "Grauzonen"-Taktiken: Durch Inspektionen, Quarantänen und Zollkontrollen in taiwanesischen Gewässern versucht China, Taiwans Souveränität zu untergraben und Zweifel an der Bereitschaft und Fähigkeit der USA, im Konflikt zu helfen, zu säen.
- Innenpolitische Instabilität in Taiwan: Polarisierung, politische Blockaden und politische Uneinigkeit in Taiwans Regierung verhindern entscheidende Verteidigungsmaßnahmen, was die Insel anfälliger macht Diese Faktoren erhöhen das Risiko eines Konflikts um Taiwan, obwohl ein direkter Krieg auch durch strategische, politische und militärische Überlegungen beeinflusst wird.
French Economy Returns to Growth But Still Faces Trade Hit (30.04.2025)
France’s economy returned to growth at the start of the year but showed little momentum as it headed into a tougher environment marred by global trade tensions.
Insurers May Face $145 Billion in Catastrophe Losses in 2025 (29.04.2025)
Insured losses from natural catastrophes could soar to $145 billion this year — well above the 10-year average — as population growth, urban sprawl and climate change combine to supercharge risks, according to a report by Swiss Re Institute.
US Economy Contracts for First Time Since 2022 on Imports Surge (30.04.2025)
The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and softer consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Core PCE: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stalls While Spending Picks Up (30.04.2025)
US consumer spending jumped in March while a key measure of inflation decelerated, a welcome reprieve before tariffs are expected to broadly drive up prices.
US and Ukraine Sign Natural Resources Deal (01.05.2025)
The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to the country’s natural resources, offering a measure of assurance to officials in Kyiv who had feared that President Donald Trump would pull back his support in peace talks with Russia.
ECB Should Be Cautious on Further Rate Cuts, Stournaras Says (29.04.2025)
The European Central Bank should proceed carefully with additional cuts in borrowing costs due to the uncertain global environment, Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras said.
US Jobless Claims Jumps to Highest Since February After Easter Holiday (01.05.2025)
Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level since February during the week that followed Easter.
Options Betting on ECB Rate Cuts By September Rise in Popularity (02.05.2025)
Traders are scooping up wagers tied to the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision in September, moving on from bets on June when a quarter-point cut is seen as a foregone conclusion.
April Jobs Report: Hiring Seen Slowing, With Brunt of Tariff Impact Coming Later (02.05.2025)
US employment growth probably decelerated in April and the jobless rate held steady, illustrating healthy yet moderating labor demand entering a period when trade policy risks chilling the hiring decisions.
Energiepreise im März gesunken: Strom bleibt teuer (02.05.2025)
Why China has the upper hand in its trade war with America
A truce is still possible, but no one wants to be first to pick up the phone
America may be just weeks away from a mighty economic shock
Trade between China and America is already sinking
Vladimir Putin’s money machine is sputtering
After years of resilience, Russia’s economy is slowing down
ECB’s Rehn Sees Downside Risks to March Inflation Forecasts (28.04.2025)
European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said there’s a danger that inflation will dip below the 2% target due to the fallout from US trade levies, reiterating that this would be grounds to further lower interest rates.
ECB’s Guindos Warns of Disorderly Market Risk Amid Trade Turmoil (28.04.2024)
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that volatile financial markets must be watched closely amid the risk of declines spiraling out of control.
Trump is a revolutionary. Will he succeed?
He has already done lasting harm to America
Trump’s China Tariffs to Hit US Economy With Higher Prices, Empty Shelves (28.04.2025)
President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.
ECB Rates May Have to Fall Below Neutral on Trade, Muller Says (23.04.2025)
The European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging for growth, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller.
ECB’s Knot Says Neutral Is Right Policy Setting as Shocks Unfold (23.04.2025)
European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he doesn’t see a need to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates as the medium-term impacts of recent economic shocks remain unclear.
Deutsche Sees ‘Major’ Dollar Decline as Investors Dump US Assets (24.04.2025)
Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.
Deutsche Sees ‘Major’ Dollar Decline as Investors Dump US Assets (24.04.2025)
Deutsche Bank AG is warning of a structural dollar downtrend in the coming years which will knock the US currency to its weakest level in more than a decade against the euro.
Warten auf Trendwende: Neues Tief im Wohnbau (24.04.2025)
In Österreich werden so wenige neue Wohnungen gebaut wie schon lange nicht mehr. Die Zahl der Baubewilligungen dafür sank 2024 deutlich und bewegt sich laut Daten der Statistik Austria von Donnerstag etwa auf dem Niveau vor 15 Jahren. Hält der Trend an, dürfte das die Preise auf dem freien Wohnungsmarkt weiter nach oben treiben.
US Consumer Sentiment Slides While Inflation Expectations Jump (25.04.2025)
US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on fears of the economic fallout from tariffs.
ECB’s Holzmann Sees Disinflationary Impact From Trump Tariffs (25.04.2025)
European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the fallout from the US tariff announcements will probably weigh on consumer prices in the euro zone rather than create a new bout of inflation.
Fed’s Powell Walks Tightrope of Being Late But Not ‘Mr. Too Late’ (25.04.2025)
Jerome Powell’s determination to ensure any jump in prices stemming from Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t spread through the economy has earned him the moniker “Mr. Too Late” from the president. For the Federal Reserve chair, that’s better than being Mr. Wrong.
IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change’ (25.04.2025)
The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.
IMF Warns Europe Not to Block ‘Inevitable Structural Change’ (25.04.2025)
The International Monetary Fund warned Europe not to obstruct change as it attempts to alleviate the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff torrent.