OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025 (23.09.2025)
Global growth was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, with industrial production and trade supported by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs. However, recent indicators show some signs of softening growth and disinflation has levelled off. Effective tariff rates on imports to the United States have also risen further since May. Global growth is expected to moderate as the full impact of higher tariffs is felt. Key downside risks include further increases in trade barriers, a resurgence of inflationary pressures, increased concern about fiscal risks, and disruptive repricing in financial markets that endangers financial stability. On the upside, reductions in trade restrictions or more rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies could push economic growth higher.The Interim Report says that countries need to find ways of engaging co-operatively within the global trading system and working together to make trade policy more transparent and predictable. Central banks should remain vigilant, but can lower policy interest rates where underlying inflation is projected to moderate towards target, provided inflation expectations remain well anchored. Fiscal discipline is needed to safeguard longer-term debt sustainability and allow governments to react to future shocks. Enhanced structural reform efforts are required to durably improve living standards and help realise the potential from new technologies, such as artificial intelligence.The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the June 2025 of the Economic Outlook (Volume 2025 Issue 1).