WIFO I KONJUNKTURPROGNOSE 4/2023+2025
Trump-Harris Debate Fact Check: Inflation, Tariffs, Jobs, Fracking (11.09.2024)
Former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for their first debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, in what could be their most-watched event before Election Day. They clashed over abortion, immigration and foreign relations. When it came to economic policy, they traded barbs over tariffs, inflation and energy proposals. Here are the candidates’ economic statements fact-checked.
Economic, Tax Plans Spark Trump-Harris Clash in Key 2024 Debate (11.09.2024)
Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump sparred through their first debate, with the former president often on the defensive over abortion rights, the January 6 insurrection and on foreign policy.
Traders Still See at Least Two Jumbo Fed Cuts Coming Soon (10.09.2024)
Traders in the US interest-rate options market are still betting on at least one super-sized Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year — just probably not before the Nov. 5 US election.
Inflation-Adjusted US Median Household Income Rose 4% to $80,610 in 2023 (10.09.2024)
US households’ inflation-adjusted incomes rose last year for the first time since 2019, yet they still have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
WKT I KONJUNKTURPARAMETER I SOMMER 2024
Mietervereinigung will Wohnkosten senken (10.09.24)
Nach den Grünen fordert nun auch die Mietervereinigung Maßnahmen gegen die gestiegenen Mieten. Konkret schwebt der Vereinigung eine Begrenzung der Wohnkostenbelastung auf 25 Prozent des verfügbaren Einkommens bis 2030 vor.
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi (10.09.2024)
A deepening selloff in Chinese stocks is exacerbating a crisis of confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, heaping pressure on policymakers to halt the downward spiral.
China Biotech Companies BGI, Wuxi AppTec Targeted by US House Bill (09.09.2024)
China hawks in the US House overcame a last-ditch lobbying effort and passed legislation Monday night that would blacklist Chinese biotech companies and their US subsidiaries.
China’s Exports Jump to Two-Year High in Rare Boost for Economy (10.09.2024)
China’s exports unexpectedly accelerated in August, reaching their highest value in nearly two years and providing a rare boost to an economy weighed down by deflationary pressures.
Elektromobilität: Hoffnungsträger Northvolt baut Personal ab (09.09.2024)
Das schwedische Start-up gilt als Hoffnung in der Batteriezellproduktion. Doch die Skalierung der Herstellung funktioniert noch nicht. Jetzt baut das Management Personal ab und stellt Standorte zum Verkauf.
China's exports grow by 8.7% in August, beating expectations (09.09.2024)
China's exports have been a bright spot in an economy otherwise struggling to boost domestic demand.
China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage (09.09.2024)
Deflation stalking China since last year is now showing signs of spiraling, threatening to worsen the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy and raising calls for immediate policy action.
ECB Is Poised to Cut Rates Again in Warm-Up Act for the Fed (09.09.2024)
The European Central Bank will probably cut interest rates on Thursday in a prelude to a US move the following week, as the global monetary cycle tilts toward more synchronized easing.
ECB’s Economic Hopes at Risk as Consumers Put Spending on Ice (09.09.2024)
Euro-zone consumers aren’t rushing to open their wallets — prompting some to ask whether the economic recovery they were supposed to spearhead will ever arrive.
Stock Rally Succumbs to Mounting Economic Growth Worries (08.09.2024)
The seemingly unstoppable stock market rally is wobbling as it confronts a horde of challenges to the momentum that’s taken it from record high to record high.
Draghi Says EU in Danger Without Massive Spending and Joint Debt (09.09.2024)
Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year to make the bloc more competitive and to commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to compete with China and the US.
“For the first time since the Cold War we must genuinely fear for our self-preservation,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels Monday.
He warned that EU economic growth was “persistently slower” than in the US, calling into question the bloc’s ability to digitalize and decarbonize the economy quickly enough to be able to rival its competitors to the east and west.
China's CPI climbs by a less-than-expected 0.6% as transport and home goods prices fall (08.09.2024)
China on Monday reported its consumer price index rose by 0.6% year on year in August, missing expectations.
Newest Jobs Data Fail to Resolve Fed Debate Over September Cut (07.09.2024)
The latest snapshot of the US labor market left open the possibility the Federal Reserve will go big as it begins cutting interest rates, though two key officials on Friday stopped short of endorsing such a move at their meeting this month.
Deutsche Politiker sehen bei VW EU-Kommission gefordert (08.09.2024)
Yield Curve: What Its Shape Says About US Economy, Recession Risk (08.09.2024)
The US Treasury yield curve has a long history of raising alarms among investors and economists. That’s mostly because when it’s flipped upside down from its usual upward slope in what’s called an inversion, traders start getting anxious about the health of the economy. Almost every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inverted curve, except recently when it inverted in 2022. When the curve disinverts, or returns to its normal shape, as it did on Sept. 4, some say that could signal a dow
Toyota cuts 2026 global EV output plans by a third, Nikkei reports (06.09.2024)
Japan's Toyota Motor has slashed its electric vehicle production plans for 2026 by a third, the Nikkei business daily reported, becoming the latest automaker to roll back electric car plans as EV sales momentum wanes.
US Hiring Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed (06.09.2024)
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
China Should Explain ‘Enormous Gaps’ in Data, Top US Economist Says (06.09.2024)
China should explain widening discrepancies in its balance of payments data that are obscuring growing global imbalances, a top US economist said.
Fed’s Waller Says Jobs Data ‘Requires Action,’ Open to Big Cut (06.09.2024)
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said it’s important for the US central bank to begin cutting interest rates this month amid rising risks of further weakening in the labor market.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50 (06.09.2024)
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Ein- und Ausfuhren im ersten Halbjahr deutlich gesunken (06.09.2024)
Euro-Zone Economy Grew Less Than Expected in Second Quarter (06.09.2024)
Euro-area momentum slowed in the second quarter, the latest piece of bad economic news for the European Central Bank.
Wie schlecht geht es der deutschen Wirtschaft? (05.09.2024)
Stagnation statt Wachstum: Das ifo-Institut hat seine Konjunkturprognose gesenkt, auch andere Institute rechnen für 2024 nicht mehr mit einem Wachstum. Wie schlecht geht es der Wirtschaft wirklich? Von L. Hiltscher.
Goldman Economists Assess Impact of Presidential Election Outcome on GDP (03.09.2024)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.
We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse
Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year — still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million. A Trump administration would likely prompt a sharper slowdown, to 1.25 million or — if Republicans take Congress and boost resources for enforcement — 750,000 a year.
30,000 a month higher than if Republicans sweep, Goldman’s economists wrote.
Trump’s likely tariff hikes on China, the EU and Mexico would lead to an inflationary bump, with a peak impact of 30 to 40 basis points on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, the bank’s economists wrote. An additional 10% universal tariff, which the GOP candidate has floated, would have a bigger impact though it would take longer.