NHC Forecasts Tropical Storm Ian Will Hit Florida As Category 3 Hurricane
NHC Forecasts Tropical Storm Ian Will Hit Florida As Category 3 Hurricane https://digitalarkansasnews.com/nhc-forecasts-tropical-storm-ian-will-hit-florida-as-category-3-hurricane-2/
NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Ian will hit Florida as Category 3 hurricane
saturday, I’m first morning meteorologist Derek Burress wanted to get you kind of *** more elaborate look at what’s going on within our tropical system in the caribbean, there’s *** look at it as of the eight o’clock, intermediate advisory maximum sustained winds at 45. And the storm system really bubbling up some decent convection today. Starting to look like it’s wanting to produce more circulation Overall, the trends this morning have been for this storm system to look better organized, feeding off of that very warm water and of course, the thus getting *** little more organized. Let’s talk about the overall forecast from the National Hurricane Center, expected to become *** hurricane neither late tomorrow or early on monday and then make its way towards cuba as *** borderline Category two or category three storm system approaching florida and moving into the gulf of Mexico as *** major hurricane Category three intensity. Now *** couple of things here, major hurricane status, that’s *** big storm. Um intensity models are probably the weakest in terms of the forecasting confidence and day four and five, the Wednesday thursday point of this are also particularly low in confidence overall, more so than even most tropical systems. And the reasoning is the overall weather pattern. Let me show you what’s steering this Okay, you’ve got our tropical system down in the Caribbean working toward the gulf and while Ian is working to the north, there’s *** cold front that’s working off to the south and when the two of them meet that will eventually steer the storm system. If this front is *** little weaker, it would allow in to go *** little further north before turning, If this front is *** little stronger, it would recurve in *** little sooner. So we really are looking at the dynamics here, both in terms of timing, on both things and in terms of intensity on both things. If IAN is *** little further north or *** little further south, if that cold front and overall trough is *** little weaker, *** little stronger, it all plays in. And that’s The same scenario as Charlie. If you followed back 18 years ago, I can’t believe it’s been that long. I remember this exact scenario when I was forecasting Charlie Uh covering central Florida weather 18 years ago and we also remember Charlie made kind of that last minute adjustment and that’s one of the big reasons why you have to know that these are not set in stone. It’s not over until it’s over. As *** matter of fact, *** lot of you may be asking is this Charlie 2.0 is what *** lot of people were asking and I mean, you know, I wouldn’t call it Charlie 2.0, but it certainly has some pretty significant memories or or will will make you think that there’s *** current location uh v in this blue line here is the path, the actual path of charlie. So when you kind of look to the future, *** reminder charlie went in here, the forecast for Ian is anywhere in here. So we don’t know exact yet, but one lesson we learned in charlie because at the time the forecast thinking was like Tampa and we know what kind of made that right hand turn. The one lesson we learned was you can’t focus on the skinny line, you’ve got to broaden it out and look the cone itself. And because of that, let’s just look where we are. In terms of the overall timeline in central florida. This, I made this graphic yesterday and it’s probably my favorite tropical graphic I’ve ever made because this really breaks it down into where we are. Alright, so for today, storm landfall confidence is low. In other words, we know it’s heading toward the eastern gulf. The models are zeroed in on that. Perfect. We understand that, but that’s about all we know right? There’s way too many variables in there. So for today, I want you and your family to just start thinking, huh? Okay. May have *** hurricane this week. May have nothing. I mean if it goes into the panhandle, we get nothing. If we get *** tropical system. Alright, what could that mean for us? Does that then mean I need to bring in my furniture or secure my patio furniture is the backyard *** mess and I need to do that, you know? Um Oh, I usually mow my yard midweek like me. Do I need to mow it now. Um do I have enough food and water in my hurricane supply kit? You know? We talked early hurricane season all about this, but this is *** very important thing, right? Keep that in mind tomorrow and monday. That’s when our confidence starts to go up and we start to zero in on some ideas. Oh all right, now we’re looking at this area of the coastline. Okay, so based on that, maybe I should start doing this or that or this or that and then Tuesday, Tuesday morning is fine but like late Tuesday the weather is gonna start to get *** little crummy er assuming the worst of the weather kind of works in our general direction. All right. And then Wednesday kind of the worst of the weather is moving through the area, so confidence is low, but we’re going to be getting there these next couple of days. Okay. It’s very, very important to know. Alright, Alright. So when then do we think that the worst of the weather could be moving into the area based on current thinking from the hurricane center, Tuesday evening, the worst of the weather starts in south florida and this can and will shift Wednesday morning in our area and then Wednesday evening in north. But again, there is particular lack of guidance helping us day four and five, we’re gonna get there tomorrow and monday I think we’ll get there but we’re not there yet. Okay, so again, just, just to repeat what we’re looking at our entire area under the cone, the cone of confidence, meaning we are confident the storm will be in that cone now, of course, for planning purposes it meaning the entire peninsula is in that cone, but we’ll hone it in, give it *** couple of days time. We are well ahead of the curve. We’re doing great now, we just need to let the models do their thing. Hurricane Hunters have nearly round the clock missions in today, so we will be getting plenty of data. Alright? Stay with west to west Two News west dot com for the very latest updates throughout the day and evening. First, right here on west dot com and the west to mobile app.
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NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Ian will hit Florida as Category 3 hurricane
ABOVE: WESH 2 Meteorologist Eric Burris tracks timing of Ian in extended forecastTropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Ian Friday night. This system is forecast to hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane next week.As of 11 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Storm Ian was expected to strengthen rapidly throughout the weekendIan had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was located 270 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 520 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman. The system was moving west at 15 mph. See the latest maps, models and paths here “Rapid intensification is forecast Monday through Wednesday over some very warm water,” WESH 2 Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi said. “GFS model continues to be slower and west of Euro with the forecast cone between these two models tonight. Intensity forecasts remain very impressive in the Category 2 – Category 4 range.”The NHC advises hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday. The Florida Keys and South Florida can expect heavy rains to begin as early as Monday. Some flash and urban flooding is possible with this rainfall, according to the NHC.”A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,” the National Hurricane Center said. WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2022Surviving the season: Everything you need to know this hurricane season in Florida SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…* Cayman IslandsA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…* JamaicaA Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The National Weather Service has urged Florida residents and visitors to gather supplies and keep tracking the forecast.Prepping for the storm: Related: DeSantis declares State of Emergency for dozens of Florida countiesRelated: Seminole County begins sandbag preps ahead of tropical storm arrivalKNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUEDStay tuned to WESH 2 News, WESH.COM, or NOAA Weather Radio for storm updates.Prepare to bring inside any lawn furniture, outdoor decorations or ornaments, trash cans, hanging plants, and anything else that can be picked up by the wind.Understand hurricane forecast models and cones.Prepare to cover all windows of your home. If shutters have not been installed, use precut plywood.Check batteries and stock up on canned food, first-aid supplies, drinking water, and medications.The WESH 2 First Warning Weather Team recommends you have these items ready before the storm strikes.Bottled water: One gallon of water per person per dayCanned food and soup, such as beans and chiliCan opener for...