One of the most dangerous mental traps is the appealing fiction – something that’s false or uncertain but you want it to be true so desperately that you believe it as an established fact.
The optimism bias protects us from accurately perceiving the pain and difficulties the future undoubtedly holds, and it may defend us from viewing our options in life as somewhat limited. As a result, stress and anxiety are reduced, physical and mental health are improved, and the motivation to act and be productive is enhanced.
The late scientist Hans Rosling said, “I am not an optimist. I am a very serious possibilist.”
1. Most good things happened because of a reaction to a bad thing. So one reason I’m optimistic is specifically because I know there will be problems that push people into fixing what’s wrong with the world.
Physicist David Deutsch says “optimism is a way of explaining failure, not prophesying success.” My interpretation of that is: Saying you are optimistic does not mean you think everything will be flawless and great. It means you know there are going to be failures and problems and setbacks, but those are what motivates people to find a new solution or remove an error – and that is what you should be optimistic about.
Evolution doesn’t teach by showing you what works, but by destroying what doesn’t.
Nassim Taleb says, “The excess energy released from overreaction to setbacks is what innovates!”
2. The constant human desire to one-up past successes, and the generational knowledge transfer, is a pure example of compounding in action.
Innovation and advancement tend to compound. One person raises the bar over the previous limit, and that becomes the baseline for a new generation to aim for and build upon.
Part of that is a simple generational knowledge transfer. It’s pure compounding: People spend years or decades discovering a new truth, then the next generation begins their careers with those new truths.
Another part is driven by the need to one-up the current leader of a field. Charlie Munger says, “The world is not driven by greed; it’s driven by envy.” You see someone accomplish a new feat and think, “I should be able to do that too – and even better.”
It’s hard to imagine a world where that desire goes away – which makes it hard not to be an optimist.