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Believability is a heuristic for practical advice. Here's one surprising way that it can fail.

Everything I know about learning in novel, ill-structured domains, summarised in one piece.

Can we take ideas from finance and apply them to the rest of our lives? I've been acting as it is. The truth isn't that simple.

The best ideas from Seth Godin's The Dip — which is really about why quitting early and often is so important to success.

Why it's probably a good idea to keep a list of questions in your head. Also how I find topics to write about.

Actionable books are books that contain techniques or approaches you may apply to your life. Here's how to read them.

Brands are an important tool for building economic moats in business. We look at how this translates to building career moats in an individual career.

Reputation is old. Personal brands are new. It is useful to know that they are not the same thing.

April Dunford's book on product positioning is awesome, and has some overlap with those of us who are interested in positioning an individual career.

A story of a Singaporean SME, breaking out of the SME loop.

If you want to start a business as your career moat, don't go looking to startup culture for business advice. Startup wisdom is far less useful than you think.

What Amazon's Working Backwards process tells us about product development methodologies at large.

Product validation frameworks often describe processes without talking about taste. Here's why this is almost always a bad idea.

Ram Charan's 2001 book on business principles is probably the best concise introduction to how a business works.

My obsession with building career moats stems from my family's experience with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Some reflections on job security, then and now.

Why it's useful to do an audit of your job market during this recession — even if you already have a career moat.

How does compensation affect the decision to quit a job? An excerpt from my upcoming book Keep Your People: The Startup Manager's Guide to Employee Retention.

Understanding the underlying business models that underpin your industry often leads to better career moves. Here's what this looks like in practice.

Strategic inflection points can kill businesses and careers. How do you identify them and prepare your careers in reaction to them?

How learning and using the four theories of truth can help us become better thinkers, better practitioners, and (hopefully!) better writers.

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

From Gary Klein's book The Power of Intuition comes a useful overview of dealing with uncertainty.

An incredibly concise articulation of the difference between experience and expertise, by way of psych professor Greg Northcraft.

Why it's useful to study the results of the Good Judgment Project in service of building expertise.

What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Results from the BIN paper, or why reducing noise in your decision making is far easier than fighting your cognitive biases.

Five ways to do noise reduction, from the field of judgment and decision making.

A summary of everything a practitioner needs to know about memory retention when learning, in the pursuit of building career moats.