And Sydney too. Consolidating some thoughts on an exciting two weeks of surprises, advances, and retreats in AI.
5/ First, in the next 6–12 months every product (site/app) that has a free form text field will have an “AI-enhanced” text field. All text entered (spoken) will be embellished, corrected, refined, or “run through” an LLM. Every text box becomes a prompt box.
8/ This reminds me of the mundane example of how spell-checking moved from a stand alone feature to integrated into word processing to suites and then 💥 it showed up in the browser. All of a sudden it wasn’t an app feature but every text box had squiggles.
PS/ Some will immediately want to ban the use of a tool that is “wrong” or “removes humans”. You might think spell checking is trivial, but I had to get permission to use it frosh year to write papers. In High School I had to ask the principle to use it. just like calculators.
Consumers acquire productivity tools for the “worst case” not the simple or only case.
16/ Critically, the winning product is one that does the most *important* work, not the most mundane work. Ex, typewriters were good at filling out forms, but word processors were not. It took years before forms were a WP thing, but books, manifestos, etc. → WORD!
17/ What matters is doing important work, not simply automating cheap or easy work. The tools that win will generalize to the most important problems people face. The cost of adding additional tools or “point solutions” is much higher than savings.
19/ Better tools bring creation closer to where “human in the loop” adds most value. PowerPoint is an example of that. We all might bemoan “slides” but with a great tool (for *important* work) the most skilled/knowledgable will use the tools to do what was previously “support” work.
23/ Many seem to think LLMs will “eliminate” jobs or wipe out whole swaths of creative work. I think what will transpire will happen in two phases. First, all creation tools used will be augmented with LLM, and very quickly. Everyone will use these enhancements — human in the loop.
26/ Why things evolve this way is subtle. In the work environment, there is no shortage of “important” — everyone thinks their work is importnt. Every department. Every creative task. There are endless requirements or “needs” that will be thrown up as barriers to change.
This shows that even in highly domain specific and advanced tooling, that massive improvements do not simply make everyone’s job easier (or vanish) but add work for people — for experts — to do more, to create more, and most of all to be humans in the loop.
New tools don’t simply automate, they create work too
LLMs meet an important & necessary but not sufficient criteria for platform shifts. They don’t yet work all the time, boundary cases are plentiful. Recall from “Hardcore Software” first decade of PCs was literally “making them work”. The Internet? security, broken links, etc.
The winters keep happening because the technologists and punditry tend to take a single advance and generalize it. Like advances in programming languages, AI can indeed make one scenario easier and doesn’t need to make all scenarios easier/possible.
If LLMs simply use the crawling side of the internet without returning links then the incentives to permit crawling and ultimately linking go away.For the largest content sites that have subscriptions or can afford this it is ok. But as we saw with news, almost none can.
The browser *not* having the rendering power of Word was a feature. Lacking a security model was a feature. Lacking centralization was a feature. Broken links led to a whole series of inventions. The fragility of the PC compared to “IBM” unleashed innovation. And on and on.