COVID-19 mRNA-vaccination and all-cause mortality in the adult population in Norway during 2021-2023: a population-based cohort study
Most countries worldwide have experienced excess mortality that coincides temporally with
the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaigns. This has led to speculation on the potential
long-term effects of the vaccines on mortality risk.
Methods:
The study was designed as a retrospective cohort study, and included all individuals aged
≥18 years living in Norway during January 1, 2021, through December 31, 2023. Individuals
were categorized as either unvaccinated (received no doses), partially vaccinated (received
one or two doses) or fully vaccinated (received three or more doses) from the date of
vaccination and onwards. Age-stratified Poisson models were used to estimate incidence
rate ratios of death (all causes) between vaccination groups, adjusting for sex, calendar time,
county of residence and risk group status (nursing home resident or preexisting condition
with increased risk of severe COVID-19).
Results:
The study included 4 645 910 individuals (49.8% women) with 132 963 deaths during follow-
up. There was a higher proportion of individuals that were part of a risk group among fully
vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals in all age groups, and a lower
unadjusted rate of death: 51.5 vs 73.6 per 100 000 person years (py) among individuals
aged 18-44 years, 295.1 vs 405.3 per 100 000 py among 45-64 years, and 3620.2 vs 4783.8
per 100 000 py among 65 years or older. The adjusted IRR of death for the same age groups
were 0.42 (95% CI 0.38-0.47), 0.39 (95% CI 0.37-0.41) and 0.42 (95% CI 0.41-0.43),
respectively. The differences in rate of death between vaccination groups were larger among
men and peaked during 2022.
Conclusion:
Vaccinated individuals had a lower rate of all-cause death during 2021-2023 in Norway.