Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Covid19-Sources
The MicrobeScope – Infectious Diseases in Context — Information is Beautiful
How deadly & infectious are the major diseases? A visualised ranking of Bird Flu, Ebola, SARS, Malaria and other infectious diseases.
Mix-and-match COVID vaccines trigger potent immune response
Preliminary results from a trial of more than 600 people are the first to show the benefits of combining different vaccines.
How Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases by Katherine Randall, E. Thomas Ewing, Linsey Marr, Jose Jimenez, L. Bourouiba :: SSRN
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed major gaps in our understanding of the transmission of viruses through the air. These gaps slowed recognition of airborne tran
Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course
Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 German SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 6110 from test centres attended by pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly-symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalised, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The youngest had mean log10 viral load 0.5 (or less) lower than older subjects and an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability, due in part to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 109 copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with mean age 37.6. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (8.1) and cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log10 viral load 1.05 higher than non-B.1.1.7, with estimated cell culture replication probability 2.6 times higher.
The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, reduce not only COVID-19 cases but also other circulating infections such as influenza and RSV. The susceptible population for these infections will increase while NPIs are in place. Using models fit to historic cases of RSV and influenza, we project large future outbreaks of both diseases may occur following a period of extended NPIs. These outbreaks, which may reach peak numbers in the winter, could increase the burden to healthcare systems.
Data for this study come from publicly available datasets. Code and collated data to recreate the main results are available via GitHub at .
Effect of 2 Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines on Symptomatic COVID-19 Infection in Adults: A Randomized Clinical Trial | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network
This interim analysis of an ongoing randomized trial evaluates the efficacy of 2 inactivated coronavirus vaccines for preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in healthy adults and adverse events after immunization.
Safety of mRNA COVID-19 jabs backed, despite myocarditis cases -
CDC joins EU, Israeli regulators in investigating cases of myocarditis with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna; AHA says it has identified "several dozen" examples in the US
“Vaccine-Induced Covid-19 Mimicry” Syndrome:Splice reactions within the SARS-CoV-2 Spike open reading frame result in Spike protein variants that may cause thromboembolic events in patients immunized with vector-based vaccines
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SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans
Long-lived bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) are a persistent and essential source of protective antibodies1–7. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) convalescent individuals have a significantly lower risk of reinfection8–10. Nonetheless, it has been reported that anti-SARS-CoV-2 serum antibodies experience rapid decay in the first few months after infection, raising concerns that long-lived BMPCs may not be generated and humoral immunity against this virus may be short-lived11–13. Here we demonstrate that in patients who experienced mild infections (n=77), serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) antibodies decline rapidly in the first 4 months after infection and then more gradually over the following 7 months, remaining detectable at least 11 months after infection. Anti-S antibody titers correlated with the frequency of S-specific BMPCs obtained from bone marrow aspirates of 18 SARS-CoV-2 convalescent patients 7 to 8 months after infection. S-specific BMPCs were not detected in aspirates from 11 healthy subjects with no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We demonstrate that S-binding BMPCs are quiescent, indicating that they are part of a long-lived compartment. Consistently, circulating resting memory B cells directed against the S protein were detected in the convalescent individuals. Overall, we show that SARS-CoV-2 infection induces a robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune response in humans.
Sage prioritization roadmap covid19 vaccines
Vaccination strategies against COVID-19 and the diffusion of anti-vaccination views | Scientific Reports
Misinformation is usually adjusted to fit distinct narratives and propagates rapidly through social networks. False beliefs, once adopted, are rarely corrected. Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, pandemic-deniers and people who oppose wearing face masks or quarantine have already been a substantial aspect of the development of the pandemic. With the vaccine for COVID-19, different anti-vaccine narratives are being created and are probably being adopted by large population groups with critical consequences. Assuming full adherence to vaccine administration, we use a diffusion model to analyse epidemic spreading and the impact of different vaccination strategies, measured with the average years of life lost, in three network topologies (a proximity, a scale-free and a small-world network). Then, using a similar diffusion model, we consider the spread of anti-vaccine views in the network, which are adopted based on a persuasiveness parameter of anti-vaccine views. Results show that even if anti-vaccine narratives have a small persuasiveness, a large part of the population will be rapidly exposed to them. Assuming that all individuals are equally likely to adopt anti-vaccine views after being exposed, more central nodes in the network, which are more exposed to these views, are more likely to adopt them. Comparing years of life lost, anti-vaccine views could have a significant cost not only on those who share them, since the core social benefits of a limited vaccination strategy (reduction of susceptible hosts, network disruptions and slowing the spread of the disease) are substantially shortened.
https://oxfordbrc.nihr.ac.uk/study-confirms-longer-term-lung-damage-after-covid-19/?s=09
Lung damage long lasting.
Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Airborne transmission by droplets and aerosols is important for the spread of viruses. Face masks are a well-established preventive measure, but their effectiveness for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission is still under debate. We show that variations in mask efficacy can be explained by different regimes of virus abundance and related to population-average infection probability and reproduction number. For SARS-CoV-2, the viral load of infectious individuals can vary by orders of magnitude. We find that most environments and contacts are under conditions of low virus abundance (virus-limited) where surgical masks are effective at preventing virus spread. More advanced masks and other protective equipment are required in potentially virus-rich indoor environments including medical centers and hospitals. Masks are particularly effective in combination with other preventive measures like ventilation and distancing.
Gefährliches Spike-Protein: Forscher: Covid-19 ist eine Gefäßerkrankung
Dass das Spike-Protein des Coronavirus etwas Besonderes ist, weiß man schon länger. Offenbar ist es jedoch schon für sich betrachtet äußerst verhängnisvoll. Das zeigen Forscher an einem "Pseudovirus".
The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reprograms both adaptive and innate immune responses
The mRNA-based BNT162b2 vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech was the first registered COVID-19 vaccine and has been shown to be up to 95% effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections. Little is known about the broad effects of the new class of mRNA vaccines, especially whether they have combined effects on innate and adaptive immune responses. Here we confirmed that BNT162b2 vaccination of healthy individuals induced effective humoral and cellular immunity against several SARS-CoV-2 variants. Interestingly, however, the BNT162b2 vaccine also modulated the production of inflammatory cytokines by innate immune cells upon stimulation with both specific (SARS-CoV-2) and non-specific (viral, fungal and bacterial) stimuli. The response of innate immune cells to TLR4 and TLR7/8 ligands was lower after BNT162b2 vaccination, while fungi-induced cytokine responses were stronger. In conclusion, the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine induces complex functional reprogramming of innate immune responses, which should be considered in the development and use of this new class of vaccines.
### Competing Interest Statement
M.G.N and L.A.B.J are scientific founders of Trained Therapeutix and Discovery.
### Clinical Trial
EudraCT 2021-000182-33
### Funding Statement
Y.L. was supported by an ERC Starting Grant (#948207) and the Radboud University Medical Centre Hypatia Grant (2018) for Scientific Research. J.D-A. is supported by The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (VENI grant 09150161910024). M.G.N. was supported by an ERC Advanced Grant (#833247) and a Spinoza Grant of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research.
### Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
Arnhem-Nijmegen Institutional Review Board
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data from this study are available upon request.
Revealing the spike's real shape
Proteins have a ton of character. Though invisible to our eyes, these marvelous molecules carry out millions of microscopic jobs throughout nature. As a scientific illustrator, a regular function of my work is to visualize proteins doing what they do. Thankfully, I don’t have to make anything up. Te
Risk of clinical sequelae after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection: retrospective cohort study
Objective To evaluate the excess risk and relative hazards for developing incident clinical sequelae after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 18-65.
Design Retrospective cohort study.
Setting Three merged data sources from a large United States health plan: a large national administrative claims database, an outpatient laboratory testing database, and an inpatient hospital admissions database.
Participants Individuals aged 18-65 with continuous enrollment in the health plan from January 2019 to the date of a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Three comparator groups, matched by propensity score, to individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2: a 2020 comparator group, an historical 2019 comparator group, and an historical comparator group with viral lower respiratory tract illness.
Main outcome measures More than 50 clinical sequelae after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection (defined as the date of first SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis (index date) plus 21 days) were identified using ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Excess risk in the four months after acute infection and hazard ratios with Bonferroni corrected 95% confidence intervals were calculated.
Results 14% of adults aged ≤65 who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (27 074 of 193 113) had at least one new type of clinical sequelae that required medical care after the acute phase of the illness, which was 4.95% higher than in the 2020 comparator group. The risk for specific new sequelae attributable to SARS-Cov-2 infection after the acute phase, including chronic respiratory failure, cardiac arrythmia, hypercoagulability, encephalopathy, peripheral neuropathy, amnesia (memory difficulty), diabetes, liver test abnormalities, myocarditis, anxiety, and fatigue, was significantly greater than in the three comparator groups (2020, 2019, and viral lower respiratory tract illness groups) (all P
What scientists know about new, fast-spreading coronavirus variants
Key questions remain about how quickly B.1.617 variants can spread, their potential to evade immunity and how they might affect the course of the pandemic.
The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill
All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.
Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 3
Physikalische Interventionen zur Unterbrechung oder Verringerung der Ausbreitung von Atemwegsviren - Jefferson, T - 2020 | Cochrane Library
Illness duration and symptom profile in a large cohort of symptomatic UK school-aged children tested for SARS-CoV-2
Background In children, SARS-CoV-2 is usually asymptomatic or causes a mild illness of short duration. Persistent illness has been reported; however, its prevalence and characteristics are unclear. We aimed to determine illness duration and characteristics in symptomatic UK school-aged children tested for SARS-CoV-2 using data from the COVID Symptom Study, the largest citizen participatory epidemiological study to date.
Methods Data from 258,790 children aged 5-17 years were reported by an adult proxy between 24 March 2020 and 22 February 2021. Illness duration and symptom profiles were analysed for all children testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 for whom illness duration could be determined, considered overall and within younger (5-11 years) and older (12-17 years) age groups. Data from symptomatic children testing negative for SARS-CoV-2, matched 1:1 for age, gender, and week of testing, were also assessed.
Findings 1,734 children (588 younger children, 1,146 older children) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result and calculable duration of illness within the study time frame. The commonest symptoms were headache (62.2%) and fatigue (55.0%). Median illness duration was six days (vs. three days in children testing negative), and was positively associated with age (rs 0.19, p
Post-acute COVID-19 outcomes in children with mild and asymptomatic disease
Data on the clinical outcomes of children with COVID-19 are scarce, particularly in
those with asymptomatic and mild disease.1,2 Studies involving adults suggest that
long-term multisystem sequelae and complications can occur, even with mild COVID-19.3
We aimed to describe medium-term clinical outcomes 3–6 months after diagnosis in children
with COVID-19 presenting to a tertiary paediatric hospital.
Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy - Giovanni Apolone, Emanuele Montomoli, Alessandro Manenti, Mattia Boeri, Federica Sabia, Inesa Hyseni, Livia Mazzini, Donata Martinuzzi, Laura Cantone, Gianluca Milanese, Stefano Sestini, Paola Suatoni, Alfonso Marchianò, Valentina Bollati, Gabriella Sozzi, Ugo Pastorino, 2020
There are no robust data on the real onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread in the prepandemic period worldw...
SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019 - PubMed
The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. Here we report a case of a patient hospitalised in December 2019 in an intensive care unit in a hospital in the north of Paris for haemoptysis with no aetiological diagnosis. RT-PCR was performed retrospectively on the …
(1) Hannah Davis 🦈 auf Twitter: "There are a lot of #LongCOVID gems in this webinar from HCA Healthcare UK. I'm going to try to tweet them succinctly: 1. Non-hospitalized COVID patients had a slower recovery than hospitalized patients. https://t.co/f7ZP7UkhmC https://t.co/G1b3Ehy0JE" / Twitter
There are a lot of #LongCOVID gems in this webinar from HCA Healthcare UK. I'm going to try to tweet them succinctly:
1. Non-hospitalized COVID patients had a slower recovery than hospitalized patients.
https://t.co/f7ZP7UkhmC https://t.co/G1b3Ehy0JE
Reactogenicity of homologous and heterologous prime-boost immunization with BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1-nCoV19: a prospective cohort study
Heterologous prime-boost vaccination is of increasing interest for COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence of rare thrombotic events associated with ChAdOx1-nCoV19 (Vaxzevria, ChAdOx) has lead several European countries to recommend a heterologous booster with mRNA vaccines for certain age groups (e.g. persons
SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 emergence and sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies
The B.1.617 variant emerged in the Indian state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India and to at least 40 countries. There have been fears that two key mutations seen in the receptor binding domain L452R and E484Q would have additive effects on evasion of neutralising antibodies. Here we delineate the phylogenetics of B.1.617 and spike mutation frequencies, in the context of others bearing L452R. The defining mutations in B.1.617.1 spike are L452R and E484Q in the RBD that interacts with ACE2 and is the target of neutralising antibodies. All B.1.617 viruses have the P681R mutation in the polybasic cleavage site region in spike. We report that B.1.617.1 spike bearing L452R, E484Q and P681R mediates entry into cells with slightly reduced efficiency compared to Wuhan-1. This spike confers modestly reduced sensitivity to BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies that is similar in magnitude to the loss of sensitivity conferred by L452R or E484Q alone. Furthermore we show that the P681R mutation significantly augments syncytium formation upon the B.1.617.1 spike protein, potentially contributing to increased pathogenesis observed in hamsters and infection growth rates observed in humans.
### Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
A novel variant of interest of SARS-CoV-2 with multiple spike mutations detected through travel surveillance in Africa
At the end of 2020, the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) detected a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) in South Africa (501Y.V2 or PANGO lineage B.1.351)1. 501Y.V2 is associated with increased transmissibility and resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited by natural infection and vaccination2,3. 501Y.V2 has since spread to over 50 countries around the world and has contributed to a significant resurgence of the epidemic in southern Africa. In order to rapidly characterize the spread of this and other emerging VOCs and variants of interest (VOIs), NGS-SA partnered with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the African Society of Laboratory Medicine through the Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance across the region.
### Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
### Funding Statement
Funding for genomics surveillance was provided by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the South African Department of Science and Innovation (DSI), the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and the African Society of Laboratory Medicine (ASLM) through the Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative (Africa PGI)
### Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
he project was approved by University of KwaZulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee. Protocol reference number: BREC/00001195/2020. Project title: COVID-19 transmission and natural history in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Epidemiological Investigation to Guide Prevention and Clinical Care. Patient consent was not required for the genomic surveillance. This requirement was waived by the Research Ethics Committees.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
All of the sequences are available at GISAID. All of the short reads are available at the Short Read Archive (SRA) of the National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) (Bioproject Accession: PRJNA717113).