Covid19-Sources

Find answers to frequently asked questions about our COVID-19 projections model.

A modeling study using case and mortality data from the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States explores five potential future scenarios of social distancing mandates and mask use at the state level, with projections of the course of the epidemic through winter 2021.

Parents have been struggling to obtain help and support, watching their children with persistent symptoms following acute infection with COVID-19. Early on in the pandemic, parents and children felt they were disbelieved by their GPs. As ‘long COVID’ came to be recognised in adults1 and named as such by patients2 there came to be a growing acceptance that it can also occur in children as evidence emerged.3 Indeed, ONS data suggest that 12%–15% of children may have symptoms lasting 5 weeks after an acute infection with COVID-19.4 Lack of GP awareness has led to some parents whose children ha...

1of 23SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling ofeasing restrictions–Roadmap Step 2Date: 31stMarch 2021Summary1.R in England is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0, higher than that estimated before schools reopened (between 0.6 to 0.8). As yet, the full effect of schools has not been fully reflected in these estimates nor has theimpactof easing restrictions from 29thMarch.2.The modelling presented here does not account for waning immunity nor the future emergence of immune-or vaccine-escapevariants.TheB.1.351 strain of SARS-CoV-2 is of particular concern for the UK,given the known reduced protection against mild tomoderate diseasefrom some vaccines. 3.There is considerable uncertainty about the level of control that can be achieved at each step of the Roadmap, and therefore the subsequent trajectory of hospital admissions and deaths. It remains criticalto evaluate the effect of each step before taking the next.4.While more data have accrued on real-world vaccine effectiveness and coverage, modelling results remain highly dependent on assumptions about unknown factorsincluding the rate of transmission at each stepas a result of behaviour changes; the extent to which baseline measures continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted; the impact of seasonal changes in transmission; and future vaccine rollout speed.High vaccine coverage (90% in under 50-year olds) is assumedhere. Uncertainty increases when looking further into the future.5.Any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths following Step 2 of the Roadmap aloneis highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. 6.It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deathsafter the later steps of the Roadmap. The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain;in most scenarios modelled,any peakis smaller than the wave seen in January 2021, however, scenarios with little transmission reduction after Step 4 orwith pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptionscan result in resurgences in hospitalisations of asimilar scale to January2021.7.Maintaining baseline measures to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity.8.Even accounting for some seasonal variation in transmission, thepeak could occur in either summer or late summer/autumn. It is possible that seasonality could delay or flatten the resurgence but is highly unlikely to prevent it altogether.

This shows London is at almost 50% non B117 (ie NOT "Kent") - and potentially this is all B.1.617.2. NW also much higher at 30% and East of England above 20%. Perhaps why PHE highlighted NW as of particular concern. pic.twitter.com/JZeM4HMfGi— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) May 7, 2021

SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of hum …

Langen – Bis zum 15. April sind dem Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (PEI) 59 Fälle von Sinus- und Hirnvenenthrombosen nach Impfung mit dem Astrazeneca-Impfstoff gemeldet...

Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4–74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3–85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59–0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3–91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0–69·9] at

Background Understanding the global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza is essential for influenza control and prevention. Available data on the updated global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza are scarce. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic. Methods Weekly influenza surveillance data in 86 countries from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from FluNet. First, the proportion of influenza A in total influenza viruses (PA) was calculated. Second, weekly numbers of influenza positive virus (A and B) were divid...

A large number of infectious diseases are transmitted by respiratory droplets. How long these droplets persist in the air, how far they can travel, and how long the pathogens they might carry survive are all decisive factors for the spread of droplet-borne diseases. The subject is extremely multifaceted and its aspects range across different disciplines, yet most of them have only seldom been considered in the physics community. In this review, we discuss the physical principles that govern the fate of respiratory droplets and any viruses trapped inside them, with a focus on the role of rel...

Ending the COVID-19 pandemic will require long-lived immunity to SARS-CoV-2. We evaluated 254 COVID-19 patients longitudinally from early infection and for eight months thereafter and found a predominant broad-based immune memory response. SARS-CoV-2 spike binding and neutralizing antibodies exhibited a bi-phasic decay with an extended half-life of >200 days suggesting the generation of longer-lived plasma cells. In addition, there was a sustained IgG+ memory B cell response, which bodes well for a rapid antibody response upon virus re-exposure. Polyfunctional virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T...

Wie hat sich die Corona-Pandemie auf die Sterbefälle in Deutschland ausgewirkt? Wie ist es gelungen, diese Daten noch schneller zu veröffentlichen? Und wie lässt sich Übersterblichkeit überhaupt berechnen? Darum geht es in unserer neuen Podcast-Folge mit Dr. Felix zur Nieden, Experte für Demografie und Sterbefallzahlen im Statistischen Bundesamt.

Abstract.Some infectious diseases, including COVID-19,can be transmitted via aerosols thatare emitted by an infectious person and inhaled bysusceptible individuals. Although physicaldistancing effectively reduces short-range airbornetransmission, many infections have occurredwhen sharing room air despite maintaining distancing.We propose two simple parameters asindicators of infection risk for this situation. Theycombine the key factors that control airbornedisease transmission indoors: virus-containing aerosolgeneration rate, breathing flow rate,masking and its quality, ventilation and air cleaningrates, number of occupants, and duration ofexposure. COVID-19 outbreaks show a clear trend inrelation to these parameters that isconsistent with an airborne infection model, supportingthe importance of airborne transmissionfor these outbreaks. The observed trends of outbreaksize vs. risk parameters allow us torecommend values of the parameters to minimize COVID-19indoor infection risk. All of thepre-pandemic spaces are in a regime where they arehighly sensitive to mitigation efforts.Measles outbreaks occur at much lower risk parametervalues than COVID-19, whiletuberculosis outbreaks are observed at much higherrisk parameter values. Since both diseasesare accepted as airborne, the fact that COVID-19 isless contagious than measles does not ruleout airborne transmission. It is important that futureoutbreak reports include ventilationinformation, to allow expanding our knowledge of thecircumstances conducive to airbornetransmission of different diseases

OPS PROTECTS pilot project showed much higher infection, case rates in OPS schools.

In this article, we aim to develop a political economy of mass hysteria. Using the background of COVID-19, we study past mass hysteria. Negative information which is spread through mass media repetitively can affect public health negatively in the form ...

Health Ministry says 17 cases identified among people who haven't left the country, indicating community spread; 4 of those diagnosed are fully vaccinated

We compared 19,207 cases of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7/S gene target failure (SGTF), 436 B.1.351 and 352 P.1 to non-variant cases reported by seven European countries. COVID-19 cases with these variants had significantly higher adjusted odds ratios for hospitalisation (B.1.1.7/SGTF: 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0–2.9; B.1.351: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.1–6.2; P.1: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.4–4.8) and B.1.1.7/SGTF and P.1 cases also for intensive care admission (B.1.1.7/SGTF: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4–3.5; P.1: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.7–2.8).

The Severe Acute syndrome corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak in December 2019 has caused a global pandemic. The rapid mutation rate in the virus has caused alarming situations worldwide and is being attributed to the false negativity in RT-PCR tests, which also might lead to the inefficacy of the available drugs. It has also increased the chances of reinfection and immune escape. We have performed Molecular Dynamic simulations of three different Spike-ACE2 complexes, namely Wildtype (WT), B.1.1.7 variant (N501Y Spike mutant) and B.1.617 variant (L452R, E484Q Spike mutant) and compared the...

A549-AT infected with SARS-CoV-2 FFM1 (MOI 0.01)

AbstractBackground. Late sequelae of COVID-19 have been reported; however, few studies have investigated the time-course or incidence of late new COVID-19-relat

An important question is arising as COVID-19 vaccines are getting rolled out: Should individuals who already had a SARS-CoV-2 infection receive one or two shots of the currently authorized mRNA vaccines. In this short report, we show that the antibody response to the first vaccine dose in individuals with pre-existing immunity is equal to or even exceeds the titers found in naïve individuals after the second dose. We also show that the reactogenicity is significantly higher in individuals who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the past. Changing the policy to give these individuals only ...

At present, approximately 10–20% of COVID-19 patients need medical treatment in hospitals, and approximately 5% need long-term treatment in intensive care units (ICU). The majority of COVID-19 patients can be managed in an outpatient setting. Known important risk factors are age, male gender, high body mass index and pre-existing chronic conditions (Jordan et al., 2020). However, young and seemingly healthy individuals are also at risk to die from COVID-19 infections. At present, this heterogeneity of the disease course is not well understood.

The vast majority of COVID-19 patients experience a mild disease. However, a minority suffers from critical disease with substantial morbidity and mor…

Coronaviren sind seit über 50 Jahren bekannt. Sie lösen normalerweise harmlose Erkältungskrankheiten aus. Menschen, die in der Vergangenheit damit infiziert waren, sind zwar nicht vollständig vor Covid-19 geschützt, haben aber bei einer Sars-CoV-2-Infektion dennoch Vorteile.

Mainz – Die Zahl der Infektionen mit SARS-CoV-2 sind in der Universitätsstadt Tübingen nach dem Beginn von „Öffnen mit Sicherheit“ stärker gestiegen als in 2... #Studie #Tuebingen #Coronainfektionen #Modellprojekt

Analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Study app reveals fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia as key attributes of long COVID, with those experiencing five or more symptoms during the first week of being at increased risk of prolonged disease.