Fifty thousand years ago with the rise of Homo sapiens sapiens.
Ten thousand years ago with the invention of civilization.
Five hundred years ago with the invention of the printing press.
Fifty years ago with the invention of the computer.
In less than thirty years, it will end.
life as we know it" is over, and everything we know goes out the window
The most-quoted estimate for the Singularity is 2035 - within your lifetime! - although many, including I, think that the Singularity may occur substantially sooner.
That's The AI Advantage: Simple tasks carried out at blinding speeds and without error, conscious tasks carried out with perfect memory and total self-awareness
the laws of physics as now understood would allow one gram (more or less) to store and run the entire human race at a million subjective years per second
That means, using only this planetary mass for computing power, it would be possible to support more people than the entire Universe could support if biological humans colonized every single planet. It means that, in a single day, a civilization could live over 80 billion years, several times older than the age of the Universe to date
the human cognitive architecture is universal. We all have the same sorts of underlying mindstuff. Though the nature of this mindstuff is not necessarily known, our ability to communicate with each other indicates that, whatever we are communicating, it is the same on both sides. If any two humans share a set of concepts, any structure composed of those concepts that is understood by one will be understood by the other
The great breakthroughs of physics and engineering did not occur because a group of people plodded and plodded and plodded for generations until they found an explanation so complex, a string of ideas so long, that only time could invent it. Relativity and quantum physics and buckyballs and object-oriented programming all happened because someone put together a short, simple, elegant semantic structure in a way that nobody had ever thought of before. Being a little bit smarter is where revolutions come from. Not time. Not hard work. Although hard work and time were usually necessary, others had worked far harder and longer without result
The essence of revolution is raw smartness
Two and a half millennia of trying to solve it and nothing to show for it but "I think therefore I am." The solutions seem to be necessarily simple, yet are demonstrably imperceptible. Perhaps the solutions operate outside the representations that can be formed with the human brain
Our semantic primitives even determine what we can know.
Might there be states of existence beyond mere consciousness - transsentience? Might solving the nature of reality create the ability to create new Universes, manipulate the laws of physics, even alter the kind of things that can be real - "ontotechnology"? That's what the Singularity is all about
A Perceptual Transcend occurs when all things that were comprehensible become obvious in retrospect, and all things that were inventable become obvious. A Perceptual Transcend occurs when the semantic structures of one generation become the semantic primitives of the next
If you're not sure what conscious experience a.k.a. "qualia" means, the short version is that you are not the one who speaks your thoughts, you are the one who hears your thoughts
This number is far larger than most people's conception of infinity. I know that it was larger than mine. My sense of awe when I first encountered this number was beyond words. It was the sense of looking upon something so much larger than the world inside my head that my conception of the Universe was shattered and rebuilt to fit. All theologians should face a number like that, so they can properly appreciate what they invoke by talking about the "infinite" intelligence of God
until you understand the hollowness of the words "infinity", "large" and "transhuman", you cannot appreciate the Singularity. Even appreciating the Singularity is as far beyond us as visualizing Graham's number is to a chimpanzee
Even if a thousand novices try to solve a problem and fail, there's no way to say that a single expert couldn't solve the problem casually, offhandedly
One of the very deep truths about the human mind is that evolution designed us to be stupid - to be blinded by ideology, to refuse to admit we're wrong, to think "the enemy" is inhuman, to be affected by peer pressure
Variations in intelligence that fall within the normal design range don't directly affect this stupidity. That's where we get the folk wisdom that intelligence doesn't imply wisdom, and within the human range this is mostly correct (8). The variations we see don't hit hard enough to make people appreciate what "smarter" means
I am a Singularitarian because I have some small appreciation of how utterly, finally, absolutely impossible it is to think like someone even a little tiny bit smarter than you are. I know that we are all missing the obvious, every day. There are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the smallest bit upwards, and some problems will suddenly move from "impossible" to "obvious". Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious. Move a huge distance upwards
I've never been through the Singularity. I've never been to the Transcend. I just staked out an area of the Low Beyond. This page is devoted to communicating a sense of awe that comes from personal experience, and is, therefore, merely human
For example, population growth is hyperbolic. (Maybe you learned it was exponential in math class, but it's hyperbolic to a much better fit than exponential.) If that trend continues, world population reaches infinity on Aug 17, 2027, plus or minus 1.8 years
Waiting for the bus is a bad idea if you turn out to be the bus driver
Every species - at least, every species that doesn't blow itself up - sooner or later comes face-to-face with a full-blown superintelligence
(The details which follow have been redesigned and fleshed out a bit (by yours truly) from the original in Mind Children.)
A neuron-sized robot swims up to a neuron and scans it into memory.
An external computer, in continuous communication with the robot, starts simulating the neuron.
The robot waits until the computer simulation perfectly matches the neuron.
The robot replaces the neuron with itself as smoothly as possible, sending inputs to the computer and transmitting outputs from the simulation of a neuron inside the computer.
This entire procedure has had no effect on the flow of information in the brain, except that one neuron's worth of processing is now being done inside a computer instead of a neuron.
Repeat, neuron by neuron, until the entire brain is composed of robot neurons
4e. The biological neuron is discarded
consciousness is strictly a function of neurons
At this point it is customary to speculate about how one goes about eating, drinking, walking around. People state that they are unwilling to give up physical reality, worry about whether or not they will have sufficient computational power to simulate a hedonistic world of their wildest desires, and so on and so on ad nauseam. Even Vinge himself, discoverer of the Singularity, has gone on record as wondering whether one's true self would be diluted by Transcendence
Eventually, you will die, go into an eternal loop, or Transcend. In the long run... the really long run... mortality isn't an option
emotions like "selfishness" and "resentment" do not spontaneously appear in artificial intelligences
Resentment is a complex functional adaptation which evolved in humans over the course of millions of years; it does not simply appear out of nowhere.
Even the tendency to evaluate your own group as more valuable is an evolved one, along with the tendency to think in terms of "us" and "them" in the first place.
If infants could choose whether or not to leave the womb, without knowing what lay at the end of the birth canal - without knowing if anything lay at the end of the birth canal - how many would
Mitchell Porter calls it "The race between superweapons and superintelligence
Have you ever stared into the hard problem of ethics, or consciousness, or reality, and realized that there is no humanly-understandable justification for subjective experience, getting out of bed, or anything existing at all? How can we do anything, set any goals, without knowing the Meaning of Life? How can we justify our continued participation in the rat race if we don't know why we're running
The time has come to stop turning away from the mugging on the corner, the beggar on the street. It is no longer necessary to look nervously away, repeating the mantra: "I can't solve all the problems of the world." We can. We can end this
Why rationalize this life? Why try to pretend that it makes sense? Why make it seem bright and happy? There is an alternative
Organizations tend to perpetuate themselves, rather than solving problems
But what I care about is the Singularity, not Singularitarianism
whether an idea is intelligent or stupid takes logical precedence over whether it's pro- or anti-Singularity. (You'd think that this would all be blatantly obvious - unless, of course, you'd ever read a history book, or talked to other humans, or turned on a television set or something
Don't describe Life after Singularity in glowing terms. Don't describe it at all. I think the all-time low point in predicting the future came in the few brief paragraphs of Unbounding the Future that I read, when they described a pedestrian being run over and his hand miraculously healing. That's ridiculous. Pedestrian? Run over? Hand? Cars in a nanotech world? Why not just have a bunch of apes describe the ease of getting bananas with a human mind
Leave the problems of transhumanity to the transhumans. Our chances of getting anything right are the same as a fish designing a working airplane out of algae and pebbles