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Marginal Impact
Marginal Impact
Is supporting impactful projects always the best way to achieve impact? And how do you know how much impact you're generating?
The marginal impact of an investment of time or money is the additional impact that this specific investment created. The term is usually used to emphasize that when you make decisions, you should take into account only the impact that was actually generated by your choice, rather than counting the impact of already existing efforts. For example, joining a huge movement with lots of impact isn’t inherently better than joining a small movement, if your own impact isn’t greater as a part of that movement.
If you’re a toaster manufacturer considering whether to manufacture one more toaster to sell, for example, the question you need to ask yourself is not whether the toaster business is profitable over all - but rather how much profit you’ll make on this next toaster. It may be the case that selling toasters is a lucrative business overall, but the market is already flooded with your previously-sold products and you’ll fail to sell another one. In this case, your total returns from selling toasters might remain large even if you manufacture another one, but your marginal returns (income minus expenses of this next unit) will be negative - so manufacturing it in the first place is a bad idea; you’re losing money.
As a result, it’s unclear that additional donations to Wikimedia lead to improvement in the content provided by Wikipedia. This is an example where the total impact (or even total cost-effectiveness) is a pretty terrible proxy for the marginal impact of additional donations. The first few millions of dollars that Wikipedia receives are incredibly valuable and important, but those are already a done deal - you can only control the marginal impact of the 100 millionth dollar or above.
effective-altruismeffective-altruism
·probablygood.org·
Marginal Impact
Get a free chapter of "The Precipice"
Get a free chapter of "The Precipice"
Toby Ord's new book on existential risk was released in March 2020. Get a free copy now.
Join the 80,000 Hours newsletter and our partners at Impact Books will send you a free copy of the book.
effective-altruismeffective-altruism
·80000hours.org·
Get a free chapter of "The Precipice"
The case for reducing existential risk - EA Forum
The case for reducing existential risk - EA Forum
In 1939, Einstein wrote to Roosevelt:[1] …
Here’s a suggestion that’s not so often discussed: our first priority should be to survive. So long as civilisation continues to exist, we’ll have the chance to solve all our other problems, and have a far better future. But if we go extinct, that’s it.
These concerns have started a new movement working to safeguard civilisation, which has been joined by Stephen Hawking, Max Tegmark, and new institutes founded by researchers at Cambridge, MIT, Oxford, and elsewhere.
We used to think the risks were extremely low as well, but when we looked into it, we changed our minds. As we’ll see, researchers who study these issues think the risks are over one thousand times higher, and are probably increasing.
We then make the case that reducing these risks could be the most important thing you do with your life, and explain exactly what you can do to help.
effective-altruismeffective-altruism#ea.handbook#longtermism
·forum.effectivealtruism.org·
The case for reducing existential risk - EA Forum
Our final century? - EA Forum
Our final century? - EA Forum
“So if we drop the baton, succumbing to an existential catastrophe, we would fail our ancestors in a multitude of ways. We would fail to achieve the dreams they hoped for; we would betray the trust t…
In this chapter we’ll focus on existential risks: risks that threaten the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.
The importance, neglectedness, tractability framework: The most important problems generally affect a lot of people, are relatively under-invested in, and can be meaningfully improved with a small amount of work.
Thinking on the margin: If you're donating $1, you should give that extra $1 to the intervention that can most cost-effectively improve the world.
Crucial considerations: It can be extremely hard to figure out whether some action helps your goal or causes harm, particularly if you’re trying to influence complex social systems or the long-term. This is part of why it can make sense to do a lot of analysis of interventions you’re considering.
effective-altruismeffective-altruism#ea.handbook
·forum.effectivealtruism.org·
Our final century? - EA Forum
How not to be a “white in shining armor”
How not to be a “white in shining armor”
This post inspired by the upcoming Day Without Dignity online event GiveWell’s current top-rated charities focus on proven, cost-effective health [...]
We fundamentally believe that progress on most problems must be locally driven. So we seek to improve people’s abilities to make progress on their own, rather than taking personal responsibility for each of their challenges.
One more approach to “putting locals in the driver’s seat”: give to GiveDirectly to support unconditional cash transfers. We feel that global health and nutrition interventions are superior because they reach so many more people (per dollar), but for those who are even more concerned than we are about the trap of “whites in shining armor,” this option has some promise.
effective-altruismeffective-altruism
·blog.givewell.org·
How not to be a “white in shining armor”
Duolingo Streak Goal
Duolingo Streak Goal
This is one of the 🤯🤯🤯 experiments we ran on the Duolingo Retention team : pic.twitter.com/Dv9Wp377vT— Ali Abouelatta (@abouelatta_ali) November 21, 2022
learning-platformslearning-platforms#duolingo
·twitter.com·
Duolingo Streak Goal
Blog - Towards the next generation of XNU memory safety: kalloc_type - Apple Security Research
Blog - Towards the next generation of XNU memory safety: kalloc_type - Apple Security Research
Improving software memory safety is a key security objective for engineering teams across the industry. Here we begin a journey into the XNU kernel at the core of iOS and explore the intricate work our engineering teams have done to harden the memory allocator and make our software much more difficult to exploit.
securitysecurity#apple#xnu
·security.apple.com·
Blog - Towards the next generation of XNU memory safety: kalloc_type - Apple Security Research
Mike Davis’s Specificities | Gabriel Winant
Mike Davis’s Specificities | Gabriel Winant
The US working class was forged, for Davis, through its compounded historical defeat, which gave it a distinctive contradictory, battered, and lumpy form that could not be evened out through appeals to abstraction. Most importantly, the cycle of defeat and accommodation had separated the official labor movement from the Black working class, which he saw as the only possible “cutting edge” for socialist politics.
the-leftthe-left#gabriel.winant#mike.davis#obituary
·nplusonemag.com·
Mike Davis’s Specificities | Gabriel Winant
Digital Rocks | Will Tavlin
Digital Rocks | Will Tavlin
Eventually DCI scrubbed celluloid film almost entirely from the film industry, ushering in the most significant technological shift since the introduction of sound. The digital revolution transformed nearly every aspect of filmmaking for Hollywood and independent filmmakers. This revolution was invisible, and it was designed to be that way. Its success depended on audiences never noticing at all.
filmfilm#digital.cinema
·nplusonemag.com·
Digital Rocks | Will Tavlin
BONELAB - Release Date Trailer
BONELAB - Release Date Trailer
Wishlist now! Quest2: https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/4215734068529064/ Steam: https://store.steampowered.com/app/1592190/BONELAB/ Oculus: https://www.oculus.com/experiences/rift/5088709007839657/ Suspected of séancing with an unknown power, you are on trial. During your execution you are called to action. Escaping death you descend into an unknown underworld lab. A series of preparatory challenges await you, but for what? Will you transcend them and discover your calling? Discord: https://discord.gg/stresslevelzero
gamegame
·youtube.com·
BONELAB - Release Date Trailer
How Pythagoras Broke Music (and how we kind of fixed it)
How Pythagoras Broke Music (and how we kind of fixed it)
How does music work? What did an Ancient Greek philosopher have to do with it? Why did he keep drowning people? Discover the answers to these questions and more as we take a tour through musical tuning systems, examining how the power of mathematics has helped us build and rebuild our methods of creating music throughout history. Pythagorean tuning, the Pythagorean comma, equal temperament - learn what these are and how they shaped the way we make music today. Join my Discord server to discuss this video and more: https://discord.gg/AVcU9w5gVW Give your feedback on this video here: [Feedback is now closed, thanks everyone for all the responses!] I created this video as part of a mathematics communication module at university, so would really appreciate your feedback. Leaving a comment or filling in the survey linked above would be perfect. Note your answers will be recorded and used in an evaluative report. SOURCES Math and Music: Harmonious Connections (Seymour Dale Publications) - Trudi H. Garland and Charity Vaughan Kahn, 1994 Harmonograph (Wooden Books) - Anthony Asthon, 2005 The Elements of Music (Wooden Books) - Jason Martineau, 2008 Big Bangs: Five Musical Revolutions (Vintage) - Howard Goodall, 2001 Music: A Mathematical Offering (University of Aberdeen) - David Bensen, 2008 Pythagoras (Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy) - Carl Huffman, 2005 The Death of Pythagoras (Philosophy Now) - Bruce Pennington, 2010 The Development of Musical Tuning Systems - Peter A. Frazier, 2001
musicmusic
·youtu.be·
How Pythagoras Broke Music (and how we kind of fixed it)
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales calls for a Global campaign to eliminate NATO | MR Online
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales calls for a Global campaign to eliminate NATO | MR Online
In interview with British journalist, Morales says the U.S. uses NATO to provoke wars and sell weapons. U.S./UK-backed coup against him in 2019 was undertaken for lithium and because his government advanced an alternative economic model to the neoliberal “Washington Consensus”
the-leftthe-left#evo.morales#bolivia
·mronline.org·
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales calls for a Global campaign to eliminate NATO | MR Online
The Money Is In All The Wrong Places | Defector
The Money Is In All The Wrong Places | Defector
You can always tell who in Hollywood has family money by their Instagrams. People like Dakota Johnson, who have a Hollywood lineage deeper than the Mariana Trench, post only rarely. They post about social justice causes they care about, or personal announcements. Even someone like actress and musician Maya Hawke mostly posts previews of upcoming […]
cultureculture#sydney.sweeney#capitalism#defector#kelsey.mckinney
·defector.com·
The Money Is In All The Wrong Places | Defector
Carlos Alcaraz Is The Spectacle | Defector
Carlos Alcaraz Is The Spectacle | Defector
If you see that big sharky grin from across the net anytime over the next two decades, it's probably a cue to pack up your rackets and hit the ice bath.
sportssports
·defector.com·
Carlos Alcaraz Is The Spectacle | Defector
On Barbara Ehrenreich | Gabriel Winant
On Barbara Ehrenreich | Gabriel Winant
Ehrenreich’s work has always acknowledged that power operates at the intimate level, and that this is part of what makes it difficult to resist. To engage in political struggle is not just frightening, it is painful, because power is not just out there: it is also a voice in your own head—projection, inner fear. This is a distinctively feminist insight and not by coincidence.
the-leftthe-left#gabriel.winant
·nplusonemag.com·
On Barbara Ehrenreich | Gabriel Winant