Analyze new data challenging the extent of Donald Trump’s control over the Republican Party.
Assuming that the president is still as unpopular and controversial as he has been, some percentage of Republican candidates may decide to try convincing the public that it’s not Donald Trump’s Republican Party after all.
"The court's action is one of only a handful of such "emergency docket" cases in which the conservative court has ruled against Trump."
Three conservative justices, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch dissented. But John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Comey Barrett voted with the liberal justices.
“This Court concludes that even giving great deference to the President’s determination, the President did not have a lawful basis to federalize the National Guard under 10 U.S.C. § 12406,” Immergut wrote.
Therefore, the President’s unlawful federalization of the National Guard violates the Tenth Amendment, which ‘reserves to the States’ any powers not expressly delegated to the federal government in the Constitution.”
Over four in ten Americans support Trump’s handling of immigration (43%), a decrease of 5 percentage points since March 2025.
The steepest decline — 11 points — comes from independents.
Increasing numbers of Americans in the past year support both a pathway to citizenship and allowing “Dreamers” to stay and gain legal status.
ICE was relatively popular at the start of Trump’s second term. The agency’s net favorability rating, was +15 in a February 2-4, 2025, YouGov-Economist survey.
That +15 net rating, however, has declined sharply since then. So much so that ICE’s favorability rating was 13 points underwater (39% favorable vs 52% unfavorable) in a late-June poll by YouGov-Yahoo! -
And Quinnipiac University’s June 22-24, 2025, survey similarly showed that 56% of registered voters (and 64% of independents) disapproved of how ICE is doing its job.
An August Pew Research Center poll showed ICE was the second-least-popular federal agency among 16 tested – edging out only the much-maligned Internal Revenue Service.
Americans haven’t liked ICE’s raids on workplaces (54%-45% opposed in the Pew poll) and its agents wearing masks (58% opposed in both the CBS and a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll). The same UMass poll also showed they opposed ICE using military-grade weapons 55%-30% and using physical force with protesters 54%-31%.
