Economic Indicators
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U.S. and global growth forecast lifted by OECD as economies surprise to the upside
The OECD noted that many economies have been more resilient than expected so far this year.
The top 10% of Americans account for nearly half of consumer spending
Commerce data released yesterday showed that spending at US retailers jumped 0.6% last month, more than double economists’ expectations of 0.2%.
Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2025 — in one chart
The consumer price index for August 2025 rose 2.9% on an annual basis. Tariffs seem to be pushing prices for goods like clothing higher, economists said.
Pulse of U.S. Employment
Here are the key facts as of Septemeber 2025 & a revisit to my "mixed signals" research of 2004.
U.S. GDP Growth Revised to 3.3% in Q2, Withstanding Tariff and Interest Rate Challenges
The U.S. economy as measured by the Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, rather than the 3% annual growth initially...
What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy
Box demand touches nearly every industry, from flat-screen TVs to packaged food, all of which see sales fluctuate based on how flush shoppers feel.
Investors and CEOs have completely ditched the idea that tariffs will cause a recession
Are tariffs a “boiling frog” process... or is this water really just lukewarm?...
Young men with college degrees are having a hard time finding work
Overall, the job market for new grads isn’t great.
Trump nominates Bureau of Labor Statistics critic as new commissioner | CNN Business
President Donald Trump on Monday nominated E.J. Antoni to be the new commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that collects and publishes data about jobs and inflation, after firing the previous commissioner, whom he accused without evidence of rigging jobs data.
Tariffs might already be pushing up prices
Overall inflation remained tame but price growth for import-dependent goods accelerated.
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2025 | FRED Blog
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2025 | FRED Blog
Potato price surge fuels inflation pain for Russia's poorest
By Gleb Bryanski and Evgeniy Matveev
Why you may not be able to trust inflation data
Foggy data is raising red flags for economists.
U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook
The U.S. economy is now expected to expand by just 1.6% in 2025, while the global economy is set to grow by 2.9%.
AI CEO says the tech could replace 50% of entry-level jobs
Amodei told Axios that the government should look into “taxes on people like me, and maybe specifically on the AI companies.”
As goes the humble cardboard box, so goes the economy
Box factories are folding, a worrying sign for the outlook....
This chart on consumer confidence has never looked like this in its entire history
Looking ahead, American consumers have the “Sunday scaries” on steroids — but they actually aren’t feeling too bad about the present....
The end of de minimis could mean the end of cheap clothing imports
As of one minute past midnight today, the de minimis exemption on small packages shipped to the US officially ended. It could end the era of...
Longer hair, nails at home, fewer facials: How economic warning signs are flashing at the salon
Salon owners say they're seeing a shift in their clients' spending that could be a warning sign for what's ahead for the wider economy.
‘Recession blonde’ and other ways women are signaling an economic downturn
Google found searches for “press- on nails” in the US are up 10% since February.
Consumer confidence is sliding as Americans' view of their financial futures slumps to a 12-year low
U.S. consumer confidence continued its sharp 2025 decline as Americans’ views about their financial futures fell to a 12-year low, driven by rising concerns over tariffs and inflation.
The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he could take government spending out of his agency's reports on gross domestic product.
U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 170,000 in February, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
There are still jobs, but for how long?
The labor market was still jugging along in February but that was before the bulk of DOGE cuts and tariffs.
Trump admin wants to change the GDP formula
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says government spending might no longer count towards GDP.
Top 10% of U.S. earners drive nearly half of all consumer spending - Marketplace
While inflation and a softening labor market have forced lower-income Americans to focus on necessities, high earners are still splurging.
Here’s Exactly How Much Money the U.S. President Makes
You’ve probably asked yourself at least once, “How much does the U.S. president make?” Well, the answer might surprise you.