“Based on current medical trends and expected advancements, we conclude that COVID is still driving excess mortality both directly and indirectly.”
“A recent Swiss Re Research Institute report concluded that excess mortality is likely to persist for as long as another decade.”
“Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.
With COVID-19 this has not been the case and all-cause excess mortality is still above the pre-pandemic baseline. In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK. As Swiss Re Institute's report estimates, in 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK.
If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute's analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033."
What does the percentage increase in deaths mean in real numbers? Roughly 3 million people die in the US every year of various causes (cancer, heart disease, accidents, etc). The 3-7% increase in 2023 represents a 3-7% increase in that 3m number, so roughly 90-210k more deaths. This places Covid-19 solidly among the top five killers in the US.
