“If you want to point at any other driving cause besides COVID, to be credible it will need to:

• Be new in 2020, pause until late 2021 then resume
• Result in historically massive increases
• Be timed perfectly in sync with the waves and lulls of COVID, for the last 4-5 years.” 🧵

“Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.

With COVID-19 this has not been the case and all-cause excess mortality is still above the pre-pandemic baseline. In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK. As Swiss Re Institute's report estimates, in 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK.

If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute's analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033."

What does the percentage increase in deaths mean in real numbers? Roughly 3 million people die in the US every year of various causes (cancer, heart disease, accidents, etc). The 3-7% increase in 2023 represents a 3-7% increase in that 3m number, so roughly 90-210k more deaths. This places Covid-19 solidly among the top five killers in the US.

“Disease claimed an unusually large number of young lives last year. Researchers fear that late effects of covid-19 are the cause…

…The Institute of Public Health's report on what Norwegians died of last year is grim reading. For the first time in several years, a higher mortality rate has been recorded among young people aged 1–39…

…Researcher and statistician Richard White at FHI fears that covid-19 is one of the main explanations for the increased mortality. He believes that repeated infections have led to poorer health for many young Norwegians.

• I am concerned that the consequences of covid-19 are not being adequately assessed by the Norwegian authorities. The government's strategy does not mention the late effects of covid-19. I am concerned that those who recommended the ‘free infection’ policy in 2022 are too afraid to change course, says White.”

Overall, fewer than 20% of COVID-19 deaths are being reported in these public places in all provinces (a bit higher in Quebec in fall/winter season, but not much).

Provinces are only reporting 20% of COVID deaths, that would mean that Alberta's 735 deaths in the last 12 months is actually around 3675. Which would be by far the #1 cause of death.

US record-keeping is similarly limited/skewed