“The US reported an average 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.”

This wasn’t from health officials but insurance actuaries.

“Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.

With COVID-19 this has not been the case and all-cause excess mortality is still above the pre-pandemic baseline. In 2021, excess mortality spiked to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the US, and 11% in the UK. As Swiss Re Institute's report estimates, in 2023, it remained significantly elevated in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% for the UK.

If the underlying drivers of current excess mortality continue, Swiss Re Institute's analysis estimates that excess mortality may remain as high as 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033."

What does the percentage increase in deaths mean in real numbers? Roughly 3 million people die in the US every year of various causes (cancer, heart disease, accidents, etc). The 3-7% increase in 2023 represents a 3-7% increase in that 3m number, so roughly 90-210k more deaths. This places Covid-19 solidly among the top five killers in the US.